Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. The latest situation in the Kharkiv border region; 2. Analyze the intentions of the Russian army to attack Kharkiv; 3. Ukraine shot down another Russian Su-25 attack aircraft; 4. Ukraine continues to attack Russian oil refineries and oil storage facilities; 5. The 27 EU countries agreed to sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine; 6. The Ukrainian army destroyed 1,260 enemies in a single day.
In the past two days, all parties have paid attention to the new offensive launched by the Russian army from the Russian mainland in the northeast of Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine. As I said in yesterday's article, this is a small-scale raid and harassment war, and it is by no means the Russian army that many media hype to open a second battlefield in Kharkiv and occupy Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine.
The small goal of the Russian army is to retaliate against the attacks of pro-Ukrainian Russian rebels on the border areas, and to achieve what Putin said is to establish a "security buffer zone" about 10 kilometers deep in Ukraine; The big goal is to put the center of Kharkiv, the second largest city in Ukraine, within the range of Russian artillery, so as to contain part of the main forces of the Ukrainian army and delay the possible major counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army in the Donbas and Zaporozhye regions.
Russian forces resumed their offensive on the morning of May 11 in the direction of Liptsi north of the city of Kharkiv and northeast of the city of Kharkiv near Oshirtseve and Khatishche. According to the reports of war correspondents on both sides of Russia and Ukraine and the official statement, the Russian army occupies 5 small villages on the Ukrainian side of the Russian-Ukrainian border. The area bordering Russia's Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine is a relatively open plain with no danger to defend. At present, the Russian army has only entered the sparsely populated "gray zone" on the Ukrainian side, and at most one has penetrated 5 kilometers into the territory of Ukraine, while the Ukrainian defense line is set up about 10 kilometers from the border. The Russian army that crossed the border was hit hard by Ukrainian drones and artillery and suffered heavy losses.
According to the latest map of the battle situation drawn by the Institute for the Study of War in the United States, it can be clearly seen that at present, Russia and Ukraine are still mainly fighting on the contact line in the Donbas region (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts), and the most fierce fighting is still in the areas around Chasif Yar and Avdiivka-Maryinka districts west of Bakhmut, and the border area between Russia and Kharkiv in Ukraine is not the main battlefield.
(The latest situation on the line of contact between Russia and Ukraine)
According to the assessments of Russian and Ukrainian officials and authoritative institutions in the United Kingdom and the United States, so far, the Russian army has not deployed military forces in its territory in the border area with Ukraine's Kharkiv-Sumy to launch a large-scale offensive. The Ukrainian side said that the Russian troops attacking the Kharkiv border area had up to two companies of the 11th Motorized Infantry Regiment of the 7th Army of the Leningrad Military District, as well as up to two battalions of the 18th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the Army. Also deployed in the border area are the 30th Motorized Infantry Regiment and the 128th Motorized Infantry Brigade of the 72nd Motorized Infantry Division of the 44th Army of the Leningrad Military District. The Russian army involved in the offensive on the Kharkiv border region is about 2,000 people, with a reserve of 1,500 to 2,000 people. The 44th Army, which is part of the remnants of repeated defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine, has recently been redeployed to Belgorod Oblast, with up to 3,750 personnel arriving in the region next week.
At present, the Russian army has deployed 30,000 to 35,000 troops along the entire border between Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod oblasts and northern Ukraine, all of which are remnants of the defeated soldiers on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Ukrainian army has deployed at least 40,000 defensive forces here, and the middle and lower-ranking officers are veterans with rich combat experience.
Although senior Ukrainian and U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that the Russian army may attack the city of Kharkiv, I insist that the Russian army is absolutely incapable of establishing a 10-kilometer-deep "security buffer zone" on the Ukrainian side of the Kharkiv-Sumy region bordering Russia, let alone the Kharkiv or Sumy regions. If the Russian army does not withdraw to Russian territory as soon as possible, it will soon fall into the death trap laid by the Ukrainian army.
In the past two years, Ukraine has greatly strengthened the fortifications in the border areas, and the size of the army has increased by three times compared with before the war, from more than 200,000 to one million, and at least more than 700,000 people can be put into front-line combat, and the quality and quantity of heavy equipment have been unprecedentedly improved. On the contrary, all of Russia's elite units have been disabled, and at least two-thirds of heavy equipment such as tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, rocket artillery, and missiles have been consumed compared to before the war.
The balance of military power between Russia and Ukraine has undergone fundamental changes. The Russian army is now stretching the front and continuing to attack without its own strength, in fact, it is actually a "head" for the Ukrainian army that is waiting for the battle. Now the vast majority of people are confused by the fact that the Russian army has taken the initiative to attack and continues to achieve some small tactical victories, and they cannot see that the Russian army is now dying and struggling. By the day when the Russian army suddenly and completely collapses, everyone will see how stupid the decision is and how heavy the price is when the Russian army is now blindly attacking at all costs, maintaining the illusion of the invincibility of the Russian army with huge losses in personnel and equipment.
(The Ukrainian army on the position)
In recent months, the Russian army has achieved a series of large tactical victories on the line of contact between the two sides in Donetsk Oblast, especially near Avdiivka, which may have contributed to the illusion of invincibility of the Russian army, leading the Kremlin to make the wrong decision to attack the Kharkiv region. However, I think that the Ukrainian army's recent abandonment of some tactical positions cannot be ruled out as a bait set up by taking advantage of the Russian army's psychology of rejoicing in its great achievements to paralyze the enemy by deliberately showing weakness and speeding up the destruction of the Russian army's living forces.
Now it can be seen very clearly that the Ukrainian strategy is to stabilize the existing defense line and use the US Army tactical missiles that have been in hand to continue to strike at valuable targets in the depth of the Russian army's occupied areas, focusing on the concentration of Russian troops and equipment, as well as the Russian air defense system, and at the same time welcome the arrival of F-16 fighters. Only after a large number of F-16 fighters are put into the battlefield will the Ukrainian army launch a large-scale counteroffensive.
Although it will take a long time for F-16 fighters to be put into the battlefield on a large scale, the US military's military aid to Ukraine Army tactical missiles (ATACMS) continue to be delivered. It is expected that Ukraine will eventually obtain 1,000 army tactical missiles, and the warheads are basically powerful cluster bombs, which is a very powerful weapon of mass destruction. Recently, Germany and the United States have provided Ukraine with more Hippocampus rocket launch systems, which is to improve the Ukrainian army's ability to launch army tactical missiles.
Now the U.S. Congress has approved $60.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2024 (excluding economic and humanitarian aid, the amount of U.S. military aid to Ukraine in the past two years is about $50 billion, which shows that the new $60.8 billion in military aid is not a small amount), and more than 50 other countries continue to increase aid to Ukraine, and the production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine and its Western allies will begin to grow rapidly from 2024. It is expected that about half a year after the first batch of F-16 fighters are put on the battlefield, that is, the time for a major counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army will come as soon as this winter.
On May 11, the 110th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army used short-range anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft again west of Avdiivka. On May 4, the Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Infantry Brigade landed a Russian Su-25 attack aircraft in the same area.
The aerial bombs launched by the Russian Air Force pose a huge threat to the positions of the Ukrainian army. After the expensive Su-34 and Su-35 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles one after another two months ago, the Russian Aerospace Forces no longer dared to send fighters to support ground battles at close range; Now they actually sent Su-25 attack planes, which do not fly at high speed and must drop bombs at low altitudes, to support the ground troops, and become a live target for short-range anti-aircraft missiles of the Ukrainian army. They completely ignore the fact that the Western camp has supplied the Ukrainian army with a large number of advanced short-range anti-aircraft missiles. This is actually the same command concept and decision-making thinking as the Russian army dispatches infantry day and night to carry out a "human charge" on the Ukrainian army's positions when it lacks heavy equipment. There is no natural reason for such an army to be undefeated.
(The Ukrainian army shot down the Russian Su-25 attack plane again)
On May 11, the Ukrainian army attacked a large hotel in the occupied Donetsk region with Seahorse rockets, which was organizing a celebration to commemorate the so-called "10th anniversary of the liberation of Donetsk". Dozens of casualties were killed and wounded as a result of the attack.
The Russian army claims that the dead are all civilians, and frankly, I think that the participants in this "celebration" are by no means ordinary "civilians", but are all high-ranking officials of the Russian occupation forces and the puppet regime. It is also reasonable that they have become the target of the Ukrainian army.
From the evening of May 10 to the early morning of the 11th, the special forces under the Ukrainian military intelligence agency successfully attacked the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Oblast, Russia, with drones, damaging the AVT-1 and AVT-6 oil processing facilities and the control cables of the air coolers at the facilities. The special services of the Security Service of Ukraine carried out a drone attack on the refinery on February 3.
On May 11, Ukrainian forces also used Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMS) to attack a Russian-occupied oil refinery in the occupied Luhansk region, setting the plant on fire and causing unknown damage. Russia's oil refining and storage facilities have been the focus of the Ukrainian army in recent months.
Just as I was about to close the deadline, there was an important piece of information: the EU27 had agreed on a draft security commitment to Ukraine, intended to provide long-term military and financial support to Kyiv. Germany's "Die Welt" said that there are confidential documents saying that the draft has been approved by EU representatives, and the EU and Ukraine are currently discussing specific details.
In July last year, the G7 announced that it would provide Ukraine with so-called "bilateral security commitments and arrangements", which cover support for Ukraine's defense and other key areas. Since then, Ukraine has launched a series of bilateral negotiations with its allies, and has signed bilateral security agreements with 10 countries, including the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Finland, and Denmark, to provide a 10-year commitment to aid Ukraine. More than 20 major partners, including the United States and the European Union, are also about to complete the negotiation process of a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine.
In the past 24 hours, there have been 155 company-platoon-level clashes between Russia and Ukraine, and the main fighting is still taking place on the contact line between the two sides in Donetsk Oblast. In the Kharkiv direction, the Russian army, supported by aviation fire, attacked 12 already empty settlements on the Ukrainian side of the "gray zone" on the border between the two countries.
On the same day, the Ukrainian Air Force attacked 3 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, 2 artillery pieces, 2 radar stations and 9 concentrations of troops.
Many people think that the Ukrainian Air Force has long been wiped out, but in fact, in the past year or so, the Ukrainian Air Force has made an average of more military aircraft sorties per day than the Russian Aerospace Forces. In view of the increasing role of the Air Force on the battlefield in Ukraine, starting today, I will publish the statistics of the Ukrainian Air Force battle report every day.
On the 809th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 1,260 Russian troops were annihilated (dead and seriously wounded), and a total of 482,300 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 5 tanks, 22 armored vehicles, 1 air defense system, 2 rocket launch systems, 64 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 2 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 30 artillery pieces, intercepted 42 large suicide drones, 1 missile.
(The battle losses of the Russian army counted by the Ukrainian side on May 12)
Based on various information, I roughly estimated that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers were about 98,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured was also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray persistently: May God give peace and stop wars; Let the wicked be rewarded, and the good be sheltered.