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Market Overview
The threat of stagflation and the hawkishness of senior Federal Reserve officials suppressed U.S. stocks, on Friday, the S&P repeatedly turned short-term down, the Nasdaq retreated, the Dow still rose for eight consecutive days, and the Dow rose more than 2% for the week, the largest weekly rise in nearly five months. Tesla closed down 2%, making it a four-day losing streak. AI concept stock SoundHound rose more than 7% after its earnings report. Novavax almost doubled. Oklo, the first share of nuclear fission, fell nearly 54% on the first day of listing.
The pan-European stock index rose 3% for the week to record the biggest gain in three months, German, French and British stocks all hit record highs, and Infineon rose 20% for the weekly earnings week.
Treasury yields accelerated their recovery after Fed officials spoke on Friday, with two-year yields hitting a one-week high. The U.S. dollar index jumped intraday after the release of Michigan inflation expectations.
Crude oil fell more than 2% intraday, falling from the high of this month, and U.S. oil still rebounded throughout the week. Gold closed at a three-week high, up nearly 3% for the week. London copper rose 1% to $10,000, and London fell 1.5% and still rebounded throughout the week. Bitcoin fell more than $3,000 intraday, approaching $60,000.
In the Chinese market, during the U.S. stock market, the Chinese concept stock index fell, JinkoSolar fell more than 9%, Xpeng Motors fell more than 5%, Weilai fell nearly 5%, Zeekr rose nearly 40% intraday, and TSMC's U.S. stocks, whose sales soared in April, rose 4.5%; The offshore yuan fell more than 100 points intraday to 7.23, approaching a one-week low. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and consolidated and closed up slightly, the Hang Seng Index outperformed the S&P 500 during the year, and the real estate sector exploded.
News
China's M2 balance increased by 7.2% year-on-year in April, with new social financing of 12.73 trillion yuan in the first four months, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year, and RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan. The new social finance and M1 are "double negative" year-on-year, and social finance rarely turns negative, the last time was in 2005. The central bank is in charge of the media: the slowdown in the growth rate of money supply is affected by a combination of factors. CICC: The main reason for the slowdown in financial data in April was the financial "squeeze", and there is no need to exaggerate the impact.
China's CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year in April, turning from a decline to an increase month-on-month; The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, but the month-on-month decline further expanded; Analysts say they are paying attention to the reopening of inflation.
After a lapse of three months, the IPO resumed its normal review, and the first project to be held after the year was Marco Polo.
According to data from Hangzhou Shell Research Institute, compared with the daily average in April, the number of second-hand housing inquiries increased by 54%, the number of new second-hand housing listings increased by 91%, and the number of new housing inquiries increased by 96%.
OpenAI will release a brand new product on Monday, May 13, not search, not GPT 5, or a new multimodal AI model with visual and auditory capabilities, ChatGPT may implement phone functions.
苹果如何"AI化"?Siri。
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 0.32%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.03%.
European stocks: The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.77%, hitting a record closing high for four consecutive trading days and up 3.01% for the week. Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.46%. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.38%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.63%.
A-shares: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58%, and the ChiNext Index rose and fell 1.15%.
Bond market: The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 4.72 basis points to 4.5003%, down 0.74 basis points for the week. The two-year Treasury yield rose 5.01 basis points to a new daily high of 4.8655%, up 4.95 basis points for the week.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $1.00, or 1.26%, at $78.26 a barrel, up 0.19% for the week. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery closed down $1.09, or 1.30%, at $82.79 a barrel, down 0.20% for the week. COMEX gold futures for June delivery closed up 1.48% at $2,375 an ounce. London tin, London aluminum, and London copper closed down at least more than 1% on Friday, and London copper rose by more than 0.9% and London nickel fell by about 1.5% throughout the week.
Highlights
Domestic macro
China's M2 balance increased by 7.2% year-on-year in April, with new social financing of 12.73 trillion yuan in the first four months, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year, and RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan.
- The central bank is in charge of the media: the slowdown in the growth rate of money supply is affected by a combination of factors. At the end of April, the growth of broad money M2 fell and received widespread attention from the market. Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, explained to the Financial Times reporter that the current decline in monetary growth has the following main factors: First, the bond market has continued to rise since the beginning of this year, and residents' enthusiasm for buying wealth management has risen, and bank deposits have been diverted and transformed into non-bank products such as wealth management. Second, the phenomenon of idling funds and manual interest supplementation has been standardized. Third, the optimization and adjustment of the value-added accounting of the financial industry also has an impact.
- Soochow Macro Taochuan team said that the financial data were "unexpected" in terms of volume and timing: the new social finance and M1 were "double negative" year-on-year, and social finance rarely turned negative, the last time was in 2005; It is rare for social finance data to be released after the goods administration report. The "unexpected" data will more or less touch the market, coinciding with the Politburo meeting to "raise" the monetary policy in the background, the central bank may soon ease to reduce the "negative", and the monetary policy led by the RRR cut and interest rate cut is expected to accelerate.
- CICC believes that the main reason for the slowdown in financial data in April is the financial "squeeze on water", and there is no need to exaggerate the impact. Changes in the GDP statistics of the financial industry have affected the behavioral motivation of financial institutions, which has actually "squeezed the water" of deposit and loan data and indirectly reduced the growth rate of M2. There is no need to exaggerate its impact on the economy and the market. The importance of fiscal development has further increased.
- GF Macro believes that broad liquidity does not fully correspond to equity market liquidity, and the understanding of the trend in the next stage is relatively more critical. For the bond market, it is more important to narrow liquidity, and the asset shortage will not necessarily intensify. GF Liu Chenming believes that the new model of social finance implies changes in corporate behavior, and the independent behavior of listed companies has been deduced in the direction of reducing involution, improving cash flow and increasing shareholder returns. Zhou Junzhi of China Securities Construction Investment believes that the performance of dimensional bonds in all major asset classes is still relatively superior throughout the year; The stock market can look for pricing opportunities in the direction of local fiscal revenue and expenditure tension.
China's CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year in April, turning from a decline to an increase month-on-month; The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, but the month-on-month decline further expanded; Analysts say they are paying attention to the reopening of inflation
- CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in April, down 1% in the previous month, up 0.3% year-on-year, and up 0.1% in the previous month; Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month and fell 0.6% in the previous month. It rose 0.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. In April, the PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Household consumption has been boosted, but industrial production is still declining due to the phased decline in demand in some industries.
- Caitong Securities said that the marginal improvement of CPI was strong, and the month-on-month growth rate of CPI and core CPI in April was at the highest level in the same period since 2015. On the one hand, the popularity of travel during the Qingming holiday has driven the prices of hotel accommodation and tourism to rise from a decline. On the other hand, gold and oil prices provided greater support for the rise in CPI. China Securities Construction Investment said that it pays attention to the price increase tide in the middle and upper reaches, and the year-on-year repair of PPI in the second quarter is highly certain, and the driver is mainly from overseas.
Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to review and approve the Action Plan for Digital Transformation of the Manufacturing Industry. The meeting pointed out that the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry is an important measure to promote new industrialization and build a modern industrial system. According to the diversified and personalized needs of the manufacturing industry, typical scenarios should be explored in different industries and fields. Accelerate the research of core technologies and the promotion and application of achievements, and do a good job in equipment networking, mutual recognition of protocols, standard formulation, platform construction, etc.
The People's Bank of China's first-quarter monetary policy implementation report: long-term bond yields will better match the future economic upswing; Market investors pay more attention to the interest rate risk of long-term bond investment to prevent losses caused by overly short-term investment behavior. The slowdown in total credit to single digits does not mean that financial support for the real economy has weakened.
After a lapse of three months, the IPO resumed its normal review, and the first project to be held after the year was Marco Polo.
The United States wants to raise taxes on China's "key strategy" industries, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Urge the United States to cancel all tariffs on China. According to the Global Times, the full announcement of the new tariffs on China will be announced as soon as the 14th. It is unclear exactly how much or what type of tariffs will be levied, but the Biden administration is said to have focused on strategic competition and national security.
The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Interim Provisions on Anti-Unfair Competition Online. The "Provisions" strengthen the responsibility of the platform. Urge platforms to strengthen the regulation and management of competitive conduct within the platform, and at the same time regulate issues such as the abuse of data algorithms to gain competitive advantages.
According to data from Hangzhou Shell Research Institute, compared with the daily average in April, the number of second-hand housing inquiries increased by 54%, the number of new second-hand housing listings increased by 91%, and the number of new housing inquiries increased by 96%. According to the analysis, the current inventory pressure of new and second-hand houses in Hangzhou is very large, and in the future, Hangzhou will enter the stage of digesting inventory.
CICC: The Hong Kong stock market is close to our first phase target. It is not surprising that the market has taken a break or even pulled back in this position. Transactional funds and local and regional funds that have been rebalanced back in response to external market volatility are likely to be the main drivers, and the market will inevitably face profit-taking pressure after short-term overbought.
Domestic companies/industries
The glamorous 5 billion yuan private placement Ruifengda suddenly "ran away", and the China Securities Regulatory Commission filed a case and closed the door for investigation after investigation. Different from other private equity "thunder" incidents in recent years, one of the major concerns of the Ruifengda incident is its use of the NEEQ market. Ruifengda has a close relationship with Riying Holdings.
Behind the phenomenon of "parallel exports" of new energy vehicles, hidden concerns cannot be ignored.
- "Parallel exports" mostly refer to the trade in which auto traders buy new cars from the Chinese market without the authorization of the brand factory, and sell these cars overseas in the name of used cars when they are actually new cars. Because it eliminates many intermediate links, has advantages in price and pick-up process, and has explosive demand in overseas markets, this model has been rapidly rolled out across the country.
- The selection of car models for "parallel export" of automobiles is generally positioned in the middle and high-end, and traders profit through price differences and export tax rebates. Industry competition, uncertainty in overseas markets, and interest friction with car companies are hidden concerns that cannot be ignored in the "parallel export" trade.
Solid-state batteries are starting to double. Semi-solid-state batteries account for nearly 1% of installed capacity, almost doubling every month.
"23 Country Garden MTN001" and "23 Country Garden MTN002" will complete interest repayment within the grace period.
Overseas macro
The hottest sector of U.S. stocks: utilities with both "defense and AI". Since the beginning of this year, the US utility SPDR ETF (XLU) has risen by more than 10%, outperforming the S&P and the Nasdaq.
Fed Governor Bowman hawkish: I don't think there's a reason to cut interest rates this year. Bowman believes that it is not appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024, noting that there are persistent pressures on US inflation in the first few months of the year. She urged Fed policymakers to proceed cautiously and carefully as they move toward their 2% inflation target.
The main force in shorting the yen: the Japanese themselves. Citi pointed out that even if only 1% of total household assets flowed into foreign currency, it would mean that more than 20 trillion yen (about $128.4 billion) would be sold off, further exacerbating the yen's weakness.
The Prime Minister fiercely responded to Biden's "ultimatum": if necessary, we will continue to fight with our fingernails! According to the Global Times, many analysts believe that Biden's public ultimatum is only a superficial article on the Biden administration's response to domestic vote pressure.
Overseas companies
OpenAI will release a brand new product on Monday, May 13, not search, not GPT 5, or a new multimodal AI model with visual and auditory capabilities, and with better logical reasoning capabilities than current chatbots, ChatGPT may implement telephony capabilities. To enable telephone calls, at least the following key capabilities are required: speech recognition; speech synthesis; Real-time interaction.
How is Apple "AI"? Siri！ Apple is expected to unveil an improved Siri at WWDC, or introduce ChatGPT technology to allow Siri to better handle user requests, including setting timers, creating calendar events, and adding items to grocery lists, and the new Siri may also be able to summarize text messages, create GIFs with one click, and more.
Foreign media revealed the inside story of Tesla's bet on Robotaxi: Musk was directly shocked when he saw the demonstration. Despite the significant differences in design and functionality between the Model 2 and the Roborobotaxi, Tesla plans to use similar batteries, motors, and other innovations the company is considering on both models, according to several former employees. The goal of this decision was to reduce the cost of design and production, as well as shorten the engineering cycle.
Industry/Concept
1. Smart logistics On May 11, the National Standing Committee will study the work related to effectively reducing the logistics cost of the whole society. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to further optimize the structure of cargo transportation, vigorously develop multimodal transport, deepen the reform of the comprehensive transportation system, railway freight, and commercial circulation, promote the development of digital intelligence and green transformation of logistics, make up for the shortcomings of bulk commodity logistics, cold chain logistics, and rural logistics, and promote the substantial reduction of logistics costs as a whole.
Comments: The analysis believes that smart logistics is an important means to improve the efficiency of the logistics industry and reduce costs, through the Internet of Things technology, logistics companies can monitor the location of goods, temperature and humidity and other information in real time, realize the whole process of tracking and management of logistics links, and improve the visibility and transparency of logistics and transportation. The smart logistics industry in mainland China is gradually maturing and is still in the middle and late stages of rapid development. With the introduction of policies and measures to effectively reduce logistics costs, the development of the smart logistics industry is expected to accelerate, and industrial chain companies will benefit.
2. Fuel cell| According to the People's Daily, on May 10, the mainland's highest-level vehicle-mounted liquid hydrogen system - "Track 1000", independently developed by 101 of the Sixth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, was released in Beijing. This product is one of the core equipment of liquid hydrogen heavy trucks, which is fully localized, and will help hydrogen heavy trucks exceed 1,000 kilometers of cruising range, which is a major technological breakthrough in the application of liquid hydrogen in the field of transportation by Continental. As the first 100-kilogram vehicle-mounted liquid hydrogen system in mainland China, the effective volume of the product with the same overall size is increased by 20% compared with the previous generation of products, and the hydrogen carrying capacity is increased to 100 kilograms, and the system quality, hydrogen storage density, filling time and other parameters are on par with the international advanced level. The system is one of the core equipment of liquid hydrogen heavy trucks, and its complete localization will help hydrogen energy heavy trucks exceed 1,000 kilometers of cruising range, which is a major technological breakthrough in the application of liquid hydrogen in the field of transportation.
Comments: Industry experts believe that the successful development of the 1010-kilogram vehicle-mounted liquid hydrogen system is an important practice for vigorously developing new energy and new quality productivity and promoting the construction of a transportation power. The mass production and demonstration application of this product can bring the development level of liquid hydrogen heavy trucks in mainland China to a new level, provide an important technical and equipment foundation for promoting the transformation of the national energy structure and practicing green and low-carbon transportation, and effectively promote the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy industry in mainland China.
3. Refrigerant| According to Baichuan Yingfu, on May 11, the domestic R32 refrigerant market price was reported at 33,500 to 34,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day and 17% from the same period last month. At present, the optimistic atmosphere of the refrigerant industry continues, and the quota of production enterprises is tight. R410a also increased the offer of scattered orders due to the tight market of raw material R32 and the expected decrease in the supply of mixed goods. In terms of raw materials, fluorite mining continued to be tense, and hydrofluoric acid was running smoothly.
Comments: Huaan Securities Research Institute believes that from 2024, the supply of third-generation refrigerants will enter the stage of "quota + continuous reduction". However, the reduction of second-generation refrigerants has accelerated, and the price of fourth-generation refrigerants remains high due to patent issues, making it difficult to form a replacement, and the supply side of refrigerants continues to shrink.
4. Large aircraft| According to Guangming.com, Gu Xin, director of the Shanghai Civil Aviation Certification Center, recently said that C919 is applying for the C919 airworthiness certificate from the European Union and is expected to be approved next year. COMAC said it plans to increase C919 production capacity at this stage, and the newly developed intercontinental long-range aircraft C929 has also entered the detailed design stage, and is preparing to apply to the Civil Aviation Administration of China for airworthiness review. After the domestic large passenger aircraft C919 obtained domestic flight certification, it began commercial flight for the first time at the end of May last year, and it is about to complete a year.
Comments: According to the analysis, the 2024 National Civil Aviation Work Conference proposed that the domestic large aircraft C919 will be promoted to go abroad, and the C919 will be promoted to enter the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) accreditation review process. The C919 provides a new product choice for the global mainline aircraft market, breaks the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus, and promotes healthy competition in the civil aircraft market.
Today's news preview
China's Ministry of Finance held a mobilization meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds.
Tencent Music's financial report.
OpenAI may release a new multimodal AI model with visual and auditory capabilities.
U.S. 1-year inflation expectations for the New York Fed in April.
Fed Governor Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester spoke.
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