The property market around the country has increased its efforts to destock! The industry is calling for more government funding

Recently, Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Nanjing and other first- and second-tier hot cities have intensively introduced new policies for the property market, and many cities have strong policies, which have attracted great attention from the market and triggered a sharp rise in the real estate sector of the capital market.

What are the reasons for the intensive issuance of new policies in these core cities? Why did the central government's thinking on property market regulation and control turn? How to exert the property market policy in the next stage? Securities Times Brokerage China reporters interviewed a number of industry insiders.

Industry insiders believe that the intensive introduction of the new property market in hot cities is the implementation of the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, the main problem of the current real estate market is the large inventory of new and second-hand houses, and the central regulation and control ideas have shifted to focus on inventory. It is suggested that the next policy measures of "digesting stock" and "optimizing increment" should be carried out in two aspects: controlling supply and accelerating decentralization, and promoting them in the land market, new housing and second-hand housing markets, and calling for more government financial support.

Various localities have intensively played a policy combination punch

According to the Securities Times and Brokerage China reporters, since the end of April, Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an and other first- and second-tier hot cities have intensively optimized the housing purchase restriction policy. Among them, Beijing has relaxed the implementation of the 13-year purchase restriction policy, allowing three types of resident families or adult singles to purchase one new commercial house outside the Fifth Ring Road; Tianjin has cancelled the purchase restrictions for local residents to purchase new houses of more than 120 square meters, and relaxed the threshold for Beijing and Hebei to buy houses in Tianjin; Shenzhen District 7 has relaxed the purchase restrictions, and the requirements for the payment of social security and individual income tax for non-Shenzhen residents have been adjusted from 3 years to 1 year, and families with many children with household registration in Shenzhen can buy an additional suite; Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Xi'an have completely canceled the housing purchase restriction policy.

It is worth noting that in addition to optimizing measures such as housing purchase restrictions, the new policies for the property market in many hot cities also clearly put forward measures to support "trade-in", revitalize idle housing, and optimize land supply.

For example, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Guangzhou Huadu Districts all support the "trade-in" of commercial housing, among which Shanghai, Wuxi, and Guangzhou Huadu Districts belong to the "help sale" model, supplemented by certain preferential policy support; Shenzhen, Wuhan and Xi'an not only "help sell", but also support the "acquisition" of real estate enterprises or enterprises and institutions, and Wuhan has further clarified the use of the acquisition, which will be used for market-oriented rental housing, affordable rental housing and demolition and resettlement housing. In addition, Xi'an and Nanjing also proposed to revitalize idle housing resources, Xi'an encourages the acquisition of housing after the implementation of micro renovation for staff dormitories, home-based hotels, homestays and other operations, Nanjing intends to appropriately renovate or acquire the stock of housing for affordable housing. In addition, Hangzhou also clearly proposed in the new policy to optimize the supply of residential land, and optimize the land supply model for areas with large housing supply and slow de-urbanization, so as to promote the balance between supply and demand.

As for the reasons for the introduction of such policies in hot cities, Cao Jingjing, general manager of the Index Research Department of the China Index Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times and Brokerage China that after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee clarified the policy direction of the property market, the digestion of stock real estate has become one of the policy force points. Among the local policy measures, the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy is conducive to accelerating the entry of new demand into the market and promoting the destocking of inventory. On the one hand, it can smooth the transaction chain of new houses and second-hand houses and promote the sales of new houses; On the other hand, the acquisition of second-hand housing by local platform companies for affordable rental housing is also conducive to enriching the supply of rental housing and accelerating the construction of a "market + security" housing supply system.

The idea of central regulation and control has shifted to destocking

The reason why various localities have intensively introduced new policies for the property market is related to the pressure of the local property market on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is also the implementation of the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee.

On April 30, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed for the first time in the relevant statements of real estate that it is necessary to "study and digest the stock of real estate and optimize the policy measures for incremental housing", which clarified the idea of real estate regulation and control in the new stage and set the tone for a new round of property market policies.

"The overall study of stock and increment indicates that the short-term policy orientation of real estate will be more focused on destocking." Cao Jingjing said in an interview with reporters.

Yuan Hao, chief analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan real estate industry, believes that from the recent real estate policy mix in various places, the idea of real estate policy is changing, and the previous policy idea is the supply-side logic, relying on the financing "three arrows", financing "white list" and other policies to stabilize financing, hoping to stabilize real estate enterprises to control risks; Relying on the three major projects such as affordable housing and urban village renovation, as well as measures such as guaranteed delivery, to stabilize investment, it is expected to hedge the physical workload and stabilize the economy, but the government's demand-side policy for real estate is more of a bottom-up policy; Now the policy thinking has shifted to the demand-side logic, re-emphasizing destocking after 9 years, and adopting more demand-side policies such as further relaxing purchase restrictions and "trade-in" and reducing land supply to control the inventory destocking cycle, which has become the current demand-side plan and goal. In terms of recent policy measures, the current real estate policy mix also follows the "destocking" orientation.

Since the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee in July last year, for the first time, it was clear that "the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the mainland real estate market", and for the first time proposed to "adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner, and make good use of the policy toolbox according to the city's policies", the central and local governments have introduced a series of support policies from both ends of supply and demand, although there are certain results, but from the data in the first quarter of this year, the real estate market is still adjusting.

For the reasons for the change of the central real estate regulation and control thinking, Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Times and Brokerage China reporters that because the current main problem is that the inventory of new and second-hand houses is too large, the digestion cycle is too long, and the two are competing to reduce prices, affecting market expectations, reasonable demand for housing has also begun to be postponed, and the developer's sales collection has plummeted, and the debt is concentrated due and the delivery pressure is superimposed, and it is urgent to combine the incremental and stock real estate. Rather than local policy stimulus, the tone of the policy has been adjusted.

The reporter noticed that in fact, before the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of April, there were signs of adjustment of policy thinking. At the end of March, Shanxi Province issued a special action plan to stabilize the market and prevent risks and promote transformation, among which a number of measures are aimed at "destocking", such as strengthening the dynamic adjustment of residential land supply, Taiyuan, Datong, Jincheng, Jinzhong, Xinzhou and other cities with a long digestion cycle of commercial housing inventory, should moderately reduce the supply of residential land and control the rhythm of commercial housing listing; support the destocking of non-residential commercial housing; support the conversion of non-residential housing stock into affordable rental housing; support the repurchase of inventory commercial housing as rental housing; Guide the purchase of houses "for the new", explore the acquisition of residents' original housing as affordable rental housing, and issue housing tickets for the purchase of new houses.

The industry suggests more government funding

As for how to understand the "stock real estate" and "incremental housing" mentioned in the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, Yin Zhongli, director of the Real Estate Finance Research Center of the Institute of Finance of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Times and Brokerage China that the stock of real estate is mainly a house that has been built but has not yet been sold, while incremental housing refers to the newly developed houses in the future. The corresponding policy measures to digest the stock of real estate are mainly "trade-in", and the measures to optimize the incremental housing are mainly to relax purchase restrictions and price limits.

"But in fact, the stock and the increment are also interrelated, in general, the current central control idea is to stimulate demand, reduce inventory, and optimize the operating environment of the entire market." Yin Zhongli told reporters.

For the next policy proposals, Yin Zhongli believes that from the perspective of solving the real estate market itself, it is recommended that the government pay to rescue the liquidity dilemma of developers, and the current "old for new" approach is actually this way of thinking.

Li Yujia also told the Securities Times and Brokerage China reporter that to solve the current real estate problems, it is still necessary to combine policies, such as shrinking land supply and starting construction in cities with large inventories; Implement the renovation of old communities to make up for shortcomings and improve the efficiency of stock housing listing; Revitalize some well-equipped housing for rent or placement of affordable housing; At the same time, destocking can match the support of purchasing power, promote active trading, and stabilize market expectations.

In Cao Jingjing's view, the policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing can be carried out around the two aspects of controlling supply and accelerating decentralization, and will be coordinated in the land market, new housing and second-hand housing markets. The Ministry of Natural Resources has issued a document to clarify the policy guidance, and all localities are expected to flexibly adjust the land supply according to the actual local situation; The second is to further lift the purchase restriction policy, accelerate the entry of new demand into the market, and promote the destocking. At present, first-tier cities and Tianjin and other places still have limited purchase policies, and it is recommended that all localities continue to accelerate the optimization of relevant policies; Third, in the process of digesting the stock of real estate, affordable housing is an important policy fulcrum, and the transformation of stock real estate into affordable housing requires the continuous improvement and implementation of supporting policies. Second-hand housing "old for new" and "old for new" cities are expected to be further expanded, and the implementation of this model also needs more financial support from the state.

Regarding the problem of funds, Jin Jing, an analyst in the real estate industry of Guosheng Securities, also believes that the direction of the follow-up possible landing of "digesting stocks" is to establish a unified platform for collection and storage. Whether it is the central government to set up a unified platform, or the central government to promote local governments to set up a platform to collect reserves, most of the funds behind it still need to be solved by the central level, and it is difficult to rely solely on local finance.

Editor-in-charge: Lin Gen

Proofreader: Liu Rongzhi