On May 7, Putin announced the official start of his new presidential term, and since then some analysts have speculated whether there will be a change in the membership of the current Russian government. On 12 May, the official website of the Russian president announced that Putin signed an order to remove Shoigu from the post of Russian defense minister and reap the post of secretary of the Federal Security Council, with former first deputy prime minister Andrei Belousov as defense minister. As for Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov, Foreign Intelligence Chief Naryshkin, and Internal Affairs Minister Kolokoltsev, they remained in their posts. Earlier, Putin also announced that Prime Minister Mishustin would remain in office. As a result, Shoigu became the only member of the previous government who did not remain in office.
What to make of Putin's dismissal of Shoigu from the post of Minister of Defense and his reappointment as secretary of the Federal Security Council? To understand this appointment, it is necessary to understand the nature of the body of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. The Security Council of the Russian Federation was established in 1992 with its President as the supreme head of the body. However, the chairmanship is generally held by the President of Russia, and the secretary is in charge of specific affairs.
Although the agency is not part of the functional department of the government, and its chief officials are not included in the list of government members, its influence is really not small. This agency is responsible for assisting the President of Russia in advising, advising and developing plans on security decisions, as well as drafting security-related documents for the President. Suffice it to say that the Security Council of the Russian Federation is an out-and-out decision-making body, while the Ministry of Defense is only an executive body. Moreover, the Ministry of Defense is only responsible for the management and construction of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, while the jurisdiction of the Federal Security Council is not only limited to external security, but can also exert influence on internal security affairs. From 1998 to 1999, Putin served as secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, then became prime minister, and then became president of Russia.
Putin's appointment of Shoigu as secretary of the Federal Security Council shows that he is quite satisfied with Shoigu's 12-year career as defense minister. After Shoigu took office, he immediately set about correcting Serdyukov's erroneous policy in the military reform, which to a certain extent increased the combat effectiveness of the Russian army.
Under the command of Shoigu, the Russian army sent troops to Crimea and Donbass in 2014, intervened in the situation in Syria in 2015, and sent troops in time to help Kazakhstan quell the color revolution in 2022. Although the Russian army did not perform as expected in the early stage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, made the mistake of underestimating the enemy's rash advance, and caused many unnecessary losses, but then the Russian army showed great resilience, although Russia's military spending is much lower than that of the entire Western camp, but under the active organization of Shoigu, the Russian military-industrial complex still has an advantage in weapons production, and almost depletes the weapons and equipment stocks of most European countries with the power of one country; Russia's mobilization capacity is also far beyond Ukraine's, and the Russian army has expanded by hundreds of thousands of people, but it has no impact on normal social life, which shows that Shoigu's ability is very strong, allowing him to coordinate the overall situation of Russia's security affairs, which can be regarded as making the best use of materials and talents.
Shoigu's work during his tenure was remarkable.
The appointment of Belousov as defense minister fully reflects Putin's importance to Russia's military production, and also further reflects Russia's reform of clarifying the powers and responsibilities of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff. Born in 1959, Belousov graduated with honors from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1981 and then joined the Central Institute of Economic Mathematics of the USSR Academy of Sciences, where he studied economic theory and analyzed the Soviet/Russian national economy. In 2000, Belousov was hired as an adviser to the Prime Minister of Russia, and in 2006 he became Minister of Economic Development and Trade, and then promoted to Minister.
In 2020, Belousov was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister and is primarily responsible for the Russian national economy. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West launched unprecedentedly severe economic sanctions against Russia, and even used the so-called "economic nuclear bomb" against Russia - kicking Russia out of the SWIFT settlement system. At that time, many people thought that Russia's national economy would collapse under the strong sanctions of the West, but it turned out that not only did Russia's economy not collapse in the past two years, but its GDP also increased by 3.2% in 2023, outperforming many EU countries, and the inflation rate was much lower than that of Western countries, so that some people ridiculed: just looking at economic data, I thought that it was the European Union that was sanctioned. And to be able to create such an economic miracle, Belousov, who is in charge of the Russian national economy, has made great contributions.
The appointment of a civilian as Minister of Defence is nothing new.
However, some people still have questions about this: Belousov is an excellent economist, but when an economist becomes defense minister, is he suspicious of wearing a crown? In fact, this is not the case, whether in ancient times or in modern times, a strong national economy is the key factor for a country to win foreign wars, as long as the economic strength is strong enough, and the industrial production capacity is strong enough, even if it is temporarily at a disadvantage on the battlefield, there will always be a time to turn the tables. For example, in the early stage of the Pacific War, the U.S. Navy was firmly suppressed by the Japanese Combined Fleet, but because the U.S. economy and industrial production capacity crushed Japan, it finally achieved a turnaround in just a few years.
The situation in Russia is similar now, where the national economy has entered a quasi-wartime state, with military spending rising from 3 percent of GDP before the outbreak of the conflict to 6.7 percent, major military factories are also producing new weapons and equipment at full capacity, and various units are actively recruiting troops to expand their strength. Against this background, the question of how to spend military spending on the "cutting edge", how to manage the funds needed for these military factories and troops, and how much resources to invest in which direction, will be a very important question. And Belousov, an excellent economist, is an expert in maximizing the efficiency of resource allocation. Ukrainian economist Alexei Kushi lamented that Belousov's appointment as Russia's defense minister was "a very bad thing" for Ukraine, while Ukraine's defense minister was "pursuing a vulgar liberal agenda in times of war."
In addition, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were under the dual leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, and the terms of reference of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff were not clearly defined in the Law on the Defense of the Russian Federation. This led to a relatively chaotic management of the Russian army in the early years of the collapse of the Soviet Union. If the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff do not agree in their ideas on governing the army, it will also lead to a huge rift within the Russian army, which will seriously affect the internal unity and external combat effectiveness of the Russian army. Later, when Serdyukov was reformed in the army, he tried to establish a system in which the minister of defense was in charge of army building and military administration, and the chief of the general staff was responsible for the command of the army, but because Serdyukov himself lacked prestige and ability, and because he was dismissed from his post for corruption after serving as defense minister for just over four years, the reform he carried out to establish the powers and responsibilities of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff failed to succeed.
However, Putin then appointed Shoigu, who had no military experience, as Minister of National Defense, as if to vigorously promote the reform of clarifying the powers and responsibilities of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, and promote the modernization of the Russian army. At present, Putin has appointed Belousov, who has no military experience, as defense minister, obviously to further strip the Ministry of Defense of its power over the command of the armed forces, so that it can completely focus its responsibilities on army building and equipment production, and hand over the power of commanding operations to the General Staff. This move will make it possible to completely end the chaotic management of the Russian army and the lack of clarity of the powers and responsibilities of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and greatly promote the modernization process of the Russian army.
So what does this appointment mean for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict? First of all, the Russian top brass is relatively satisfied with the current war situation. Some people use the phrase "temporary change of generals" to describe Putin's decision to remove the defense minister, but this statement is inaccurate, because the defense minister is not responsible for specific war command, and it is the Russian General Staff headed by General Gerasimov who formulates the battle plan. And now the chief of the General Staff continues to stay in office, which fully shows that the Russian top leadership is relatively satisfied with the current war situation and has no idea of removing the person in charge of the battlefield.
Second, Russia is ready to fight a long-term war with Ukraine and crush Ukraine with stronger industrial production capacity and economic strength. Today, in the information age, under the influence of remote sensing satellites and social media, the fog of war is gradually disappearing. In World War II, the location of an army was a top secret, but today, we can easily know the location of an army through aerial images taken by commercial satellites and social media videos posted by nearby residents, and then analyze the strength and equipment density of a front. This makes it difficult to realize the war plots of the past, such as attacking the east and attacking the west, encircling Wei and saving Zhao, etc., and the suddenness of the battle is significantly less than in the past.
Against this backdrop, the importance of military decision-making has been weakened to a certain extent, and the status of the country behind this army with its powerful hematopoietic capacity is being elevated like never before. And Russia has chosen to go with the zeitgeist, no longer pinning its hopes of victory on one or several surprise attacks, but is ready to drag Ukraine down with its powerful industrial capacity. And the appointment of Belousov as defense minister is to transform Russia's economic power into military power in a more efficient way.
It can be seen that the current Russian government will be more stable, more professional and more efficient. It is no wonder that Ukrainian economists despair about this, after all, the main job of the current Ukrainian defense minister is not to find a way to mobilize the Ukrainian state apparatus, but to go to the West for assistance. In contrast, we have to praise Putin for making a personnel appointment that is most in line with the current situation in Russia under the complicated war situation!