The account is becoming less and less valuable

National Strategy

2024-05-13 11:32Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

Text: Kaifeng

Household registration is losing its gold content.

First of all, Nanjing, Foshan and other places introduced new policies, and people with legal and stable residence (that is, housing with legal property rights) can apply for household registration to move in.

The account is becoming less and less valuable

This means that the popular "buy a house and send a household registration" has returned again, and it has been given the dual responsibility of grabbing talents and supporting the real estate market at a critical moment.

Subsequently, Shenyang went one step further and abolished the restriction on the number of points to settle down, and those who rented houses, worked, and studied in Shenyang could apply for direct settlement.

In other words, whether you buy a house or not, whether you are a highly educated person or not, even if you just rent a house, you can directly settle down, which can be called a "zero threshold".

From the "buying a house to settle down" in Nanjing and Foshan to the "renting a house to settle down" in Shenyang, what signal has been released?

Mega mega city, can't wait.

As early as 5 years ago, the national level stated that it would relax the restrictions on settlement in general cities, and third- and fourth-tier cities and weak second-tier cities collectively rushed to the era of "zero threshold settlement".

Last year, a number of departments issued new policies, proposing to relax the restrictions on settlement except for a few megacities, and improve the policy of points settlement in megacities with a permanent population of more than 5 million.

According to the size of the urban population, cities in mainland China can be divided into seven levels: megacities, megacities, type I cities, type II cities, medium-sized cities, and small cities.

The different energy levels of the population determine the order of the opening of the echelon of the household registration system.

Small and medium-sized cities come first, ordinary large cities follow, and super large cities have become the last link.

At present, there are more than 20 megacities on the mainland, including Nanjing, Foshan, and Shenyang, which are the focus of the new round of household registration reform.

However, due to the difference in fundamentals and the disparity in population attractiveness, there are also obvious differences in the scale of settlement and liberalization.

Beijing and Shanghai are still immovable, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou have only relaxed the settlement of college degrees, but some megacities have taken the lead and entered the state of "streaking".

As early as 2019, Shijiazhuang fired the first shot of "zero threshold settlement" in a megacity, and no longer set up any obstacles, as long as you can settle down with your ID card and household registration booklet.

Subsequently, Zhengzhou, Shenyang and other places quickly put down all their reserves, fully relaxed the restrictions on settlement, and opened the prelude to "renting and settling".

This time, even the central cities of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other major cities where the population has flowed into important towns cannot sit still, and Nanjing, Foshan, Dongguan, and Ningbo have taken action.

It is not difficult to predict that in the near future, except for a few megacities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, 90% of the urban household registration thresholds will be in vain.

What is the collective action of megacities and megacities?

From a macro perspective, the lifting of household registration restrictions is related to the equalization of residents' welfare, as well as the future of boosting domestic demand and stimulating consumption.

From the perspective of cities, when the national population market peaks and population competition becomes a "zero-sum game", it becomes crucial to grab people.

In this context, the war for people has changed from the competition for college students at the beginning, to the competition for labor population, and then to the competition for consumption power.

Why is this happening?

One factor comes from the economy, population is not a burden but a resource, and it is the fundamental support of the era of internal circulation.

With the increasing pressure of declining birthrate + aging, the whole society has broken the traditional thinking of "population burden theory".

The idea that population is a resource rather than a burden, and that people are producers and consumers has begun to take root in the hearts of the people.

Therefore, the new round of the war for talent is no longer the so-called highly educated talents, but the labor force, but also the consumer population.

Therefore, the household registration threshold is getting lower and lower, or even zero.

Another factor comes from the property market, the population, which is the long-term anchor of real estate.

The migration of rural population to urban areas, the concentration of young people in large cities, and the concentration of highly educated population in first- and second-tier cities have significantly changed the pattern of urban competition in China, and also more profoundly affected regional differences in housing prices.

Real estate looks at the population in the long run, as long as there is enough population support, especially the support of young people, real estate can eventually come out even if it encounters a phased predicament.

In the same way, no one is a house, and those shrinking cities where "houses are reduced to cabbage prices" have long been proven.

Therefore, it is not without reason that the competition for talents and the trust property market are always connected.

How attractive is the hukou?

Anything that is always precious when it is scarce quickly loses its value when it is wide open to everyone.

A few decades ago, in the era of dual household registration in urban and rural areas, the transition from rural to urban household registration meant a huge leap, and household registration was like a moat.

Just more than 10 years ago, household registration in big cities was still monolithic, and countless people were constantly running around for a paper household registration, and even took risks.

In 2013, Beijing cracked a case of reselling the index for settling in Beijing, and after layers of "peeling", a settling index in Beijing was sold for up to 720,000 yuan.

Nowadays, except for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou, all cities have opened their doors to settle down, not only do not refuse to come, but even do not hesitate to "fight" in order to rob people.

In a word, the hukou is falling to the price of cabbage, the gold content is also shrinking across the board, and the vast majority of cities have lost their value.

In the past, the reason why the hukou was important was because it was tied with a large number of benefits, such as education, pension, medical care, house purchase, etc., and even the purchase restriction was based on the hukou.

However, with the advancement of equalization of public services, most of these benefits are no longer tied to the hukou, and they are no longer settled, which is of little significance.

This is especially true in the property market. In the era of great changes, megacities are lifting purchase restrictions one after another. At present, except for the six regions of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Hainan, the purchase restrictions in all places no longer exist.

More importantly, the value of the hukou depends on the value of the city itself.

The simple truth is that the more attractive a city is, no matter how high the hukou threshold is, it will not stop the steady flow of people.

Conversely, if a city is not attractive, it may not be possible to stimulate population inflow even if the residency restrictions are lifted completely.

Therefore, in the future war for population, the household registration may lose its usefulness, and the household registration of more than 90% of the cities will become less and less valuable.

The account has been reduced to the price of cabbage, where is there still gold content?

China's current pattern of competing for talent can be summed up in one sentence: first-tier cities compete for high-end talents, second-tier cities compete for population, and third- and fourth-tier cities have no household registration.

This pattern is also the true embodiment of the value of hukou in different places.

First, Beijing and Shanghai, the existence of a unique file.

No matter how other cities loosen the restrictions, Beijing and Shanghai are still unmoved, neither comparable to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are both first-tier and second-tier, but also not second-tier provincial capitals.

In Beijing and Shanghai, even 985 college graduates are difficult to settle down directly.

In Beijing, settling down is limited by the "entry index to Beijing", and at most the graduates of the world's top 200 colleges and universities are given more planned separate places;

In Shanghai, the restrictions on the settlement of graduates of key colleges and universities such as the resumption of diplomatic relations in Qingbei have just been relaxed.

Second, there is a continuous influx of people.

This is a straightforward indicator that the inflow of people will continue to flow precisely because cities are attractive, and these hukou are obviously more attractive.

Obviously, the higher the population increase, the more attractive the city. Of course, Beijing and Shanghai are still the exceptions, and the slight or even negative population growth in these two cities is due to the active control of the total population of the policy, not the lack of attractiveness.

Third, no matter how the market moves, the purchase restrictions are still maintained.

The purchase restriction is equivalent to a wave of screening of the value of the city. During the peak period, there were as many as 30 or 40 cities across the country, mainly in first- and second-tier cities.

Today, in the face of real estate market pressure, almost all cities have lifted purchase restrictions, with only six exceptions made: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Hainan.

It is not surprising that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as the last bastion of property market regulation, purchase restrictions will not disappear easily. And why are Tianjin and Hainan among them?

Tianjin is more because of the advantages of the college entrance examination attached to the school district housing, while Hainan has to hedge the speculation effect of the free trade port policy, which does not belong to the same model as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

In any case, the era of zero threshold settlement has arrived, and choosing a good city is choosing a good future.

We must see the fundamentals of the city clearly, and do not be confused by the appearance of the policy of sending housing, money, and household registration.

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