In the dairy market, compared with the fresh milk and yogurt that everyone consumes in large quantities every day, cheese is undoubtedly a relatively niche category, and recently the media exposed that the market value of the well-known cheese company Miaokeland has evaporated 36.5 billion in three years, and the news has triggered a heated discussion in the market, what should we think? What does the future hold for the cheese market?
1. The market value of Microcolando has evaporated by 36.5 billion in three years?
According to a report by 36 Krypton, on the afternoon of May 9, #妙可蓝多市值三年蒸发365亿#冲上热搜, which sparked heated discussions in the market.
According to city reports, after hitting the highest point of 84.5 yuan per share at the end of May 2021, the "first cheese share" Miaokelando is going downhill, closing at only 13.3 yuan per share as of April 11, with a total market value of 36.5 billion yuan to 6.83 billion yuan in less than three years, and the book loss of major shareholder Mengniu is at least 2 billion. This is not unrelated to its dismal performance, following the decline in net profit in 2022, Microcoland's revenue and net profit will both decline by double digits in 2023.
According to the financial report data, in 2023, Miaokeland's revenue will decrease by 16.16% year-on-year to 4.049 billion yuan, more than 400 million yuan less than in 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company and the net profit attributable to the parent after deducting non-profits will decline even more, falling to 63.44 million yuan and 7.17 million yuan respectively, by 53.9% and 89.63% respectively.
This is the first time that Microcolando has seen a double decline in revenue and net profit since its backdoor listing in 2016. In terms of segments, the revenue of the company's three major businesses, cheese, trade, and liquid milk, decreased by 732 million yuan, 33 million yuan, and 15 million yuan respectively compared with 2022. Among them, cheese was the main part of the decline in revenue. As for the "worst performance" after the transformation, Microcolando did not explain too much, but only a few words, attributed to "affected by market changes", "changes in the raw material market" and "exchange rate fluctuations".
2. What should the future of the cheese market look like?
In China's dairy market in recent years, Microcolando once occupied an important position in the market with its cheese products, and was known as the "first cheese stock". However, what is surprising is that in just three years, the market value of Microcolando has evaporated as much as 36.5 billion yuan, this huge change has aroused widespread concern in the market, what should we think of this matter?
First of all, the evaporation of the market value of Microcolando cannot be separated from the overall macroeconomic background and the general performance of the capital market. In recent years, global economic uncertainty has increased, and factors such as trade frictions and inflationary pressures have led to widespread pressure on global stock markets. China's capital market is no exception, with the overall valuation level of the A-share market correcting and investor sentiment becoming cautious, which directly affects the market capitalization performance of many listed companies, including Microcolando. At the same time, the dairy sector, as part of the consumer goods sector, is susceptible to fluctuations in the economic cycle, and discretionary consumption is often the first to bear the brunt of declining consumer confidence or weakening income expectations, further exacerbating the decline in Microcolando's market capitalization.
Secondly, the slowdown in the cheese industry is another factor that cannot be ignored. According to SPDB International's research report, the domestic cheese industry experienced a significant slowdown in 2022 after several years of high growth, with the retail market size growing by only 9% year-on-year, far lower than the average growth rate of 25.6% in the past five years. This shift reflects a change in market demand, i.e., the gradual transition of the cheese market from a period of rapid growth to a stage of steady growth. As an imported product, cheese is still facing challenges in the Chinese market. Despite the increased acceptance of Western-style eating among the younger generation of consumers, there is no widespread consensus on cheese as part of the daily diet, and its "foreign" nature limits its penetration among a wider range of people, resulting in a lack of growth momentum for the industry.
Third, the increasingly fierce market competition is one of the direct drivers of the evaporation of the market value of Microcoland. With the addition of local brands such as Guangming, Junlebao, Dr. Cheese and more international brands, the competitive landscape of the cheese market is becoming increasingly fierce. These competitors are not only aggressive in product innovation and launching cheese products that meet the taste of Chinese, but also increase investment in marketing strategies and channel layout to compete for market share. Although Microcolando has maintained a certain leading position in market segments such as cheese sticks, its market share and profitability have been challenged under the pressure of diversified competition, resulting in a downward revision of its future growth expectations, which in turn affects the market value assessment.
Fourth, in the long run, if the cheese market is to achieve sustainable growth, it must pay attention to the construction of consumer minds. Due to the relatively low popularity of cheese in the Chinese market, consumer awareness and acceptance of it is limited. Therefore, cheese companies need to increase their publicity efforts to increase consumer awareness and acceptance of cheese. At the same time, enterprises also need to meet the diverse needs of consumers and cultivate consumers' consumption habits through continuous innovation and improvement of products. Only in this way can the consumption of cheese become a habit and the long-term development of the cheese market can be realized. #记录我的2024#