Two big negatives for the weekend! In April, social finance was lower than expected, CICC: There is no need to exaggerate the negative impact

Look at finance

2024-05-12 16:12Posted on the official account of Guangdong Kancai

Last week, as the U.S. employment data fell short of expectations, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates rose, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. 10 bond yields fell sharply, and global stock markets rose sharply. There were no blockbuster data in the US this week, which was a week of jobs data from last week and inflation data from next week, although European stocks rallied strongly on expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank in June. Hong Kong stocks rose sharply due to the news that "mainland investors may reduce dividend tax", the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.64%, and the performance of A-shares was not bad, with the three major indexes all rising more than 1%.

Specifically, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.60%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.50%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.06%. The large-cap style index CSI 100 is slightly stronger than the small- and mid-cap index, and the STAR 50 is the worst performer.

In terms of industries, due to the successive introduction of real estate policies, the real estate chain led the rise again, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, building materials, real estate, coal and other industries led the rise, and the five major industries such as computers, communications, media, electronics, and social services fell, and technology stocks performed the worst.

Weekend hits

There is a lot of blockbuster news this week, and there are both good and bad, let's take a closer look:

1. The social finance data released on Saturday was a big surprise, M2 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, significantly lower than expected, M1 actually had a negative year-on-year growth of 1.4%, and the growth of social finance in April was also negative, with new social finance in April - 198.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1,423.6 billion.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, said that this is mainly affected by factors such as the "moving" of bank deposits, the idling of funds and the standardization of manual interest supplements, and the optimization and adjustment of value-added accounting in the financial industry. The central bank has long predicted the factors affecting the decline in monetary growth, and has continued to speak out through the press conference of the State Council Information Office and other occasions.

The last time social finance was negative was in October 2005, when the stock market was 998, and then launched a two-year, high-point bull market of 6124. On the one hand, there are reasons for the central bank to curb the idling of funds, on the other hand, the market is looking at the future, the current data is not good, combined with the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of April, the next special treasury bonds and other stimulus policies will definitely increase.

2. The April CPI released on Saturday increased by 0.3% year-on-year, turning positive month-on-month, exceeding market expectations, but the PPI grew by 2.5% year-on-year, lower than market expectations. As crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices rose sharply in April, but the PPI month-on-month decline expanded, which did exceed market expectations, and the PPI in April was lower than expected, partly due to the slow pace of domestic government financing and infrastructure starts; Part of the reason is that the downstream industry with export-oriented demand and domestic mid-to-high-end manufacturing exports is weak. The decline in the industrial output price of capital goods in April may point to a slowdown in the global manufacturing boom, which is also consistent with the decline in the global manufacturing PMI in April.

3. According to the Financial Associated Press, U.S. President Joe Biden will announce new tariffs on China's strategic sectors, including electric vehicles, as soon as next week.

4. Apple is reportedly close to struck a deal with OpenAI to apply ChatGPT to the iPhone. The two sides have been hammering out the terms of an agreement to use ChatGPT features in iOS 18, the next iPhone operating system, according to people familiar with the matter. Apple has also negotiated with Google to license the use of the company's Gemini chatbot. These discussions have not yet reached an agreement, but they are still ongoing.

5. HKEX announced that, with reference to the notice issued by the Exchange on 3 May 2024, following the successful completion of the pre-launch test today, the adjustment of the real-time turnover and daily quota balance of Northbound trading will be officially implemented on 13 May (Monday).

6. According to the Financial Associated Press, according to the Times of Israel, on the 11th local time, US President Joe Biden said that if the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) releases detainees in Gaza, a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict may achieve a ceasefire "tomorrow". "If Hamas releases its detainees, there will be a ceasefire tomorrow,"

Finally, we don't have to worry too much about the negative social finance data in April, we agree with Guo Lei of GF Securities: there are a lot of data about April in the early stage, such as PMI, BCI, high-frequency volume and price data, exports, inflation data, the center may still be low, but there is no sudden abnormality month-on-month, so if the monthly social finance is suddenly abnormal, it should be a technical problem, and it should be explained from a technical point of view, not based on a grand perspective. Next week, we need to pay attention to economic data such as US inflation data for April and China's social zero.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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