From tomorrow, northbound funds will be "invisible" in the intraday! These major events will also affect A-shares

National Business Daily

2024-05-12 11:12Published on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Zhao Yun Every editor: Peng Shuiping

In the past trading week (5.6~5.10), although A-shares fluctuated, the rally continued. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly entered a technical bull market, and most of the other major indices performed well.

The first week of May got off to a good start, further boosting market sentiment. In a healthy and optimistic atmosphere, the catalysis of news in the face of the market is more worthy of attention.

Without further ado, let's start this week's review and preview.

1. Preview of next week's events

The biggest change in A-shares next week is undoubtedly that starting from Monday (May 13), the northbound capital data (buying, selling, turnover, etc.) will be "invisible" intraday and replaced by:

When the quota balance of SSE Stock Connect is greater than or equal to 30% on the day, "sufficient quota" will be displayed;

When it is less than 30%, the quota balance will be announced in real time.

Screenshot from the Wind interface

At that time, investors who are accustomed to using the northbound as a "weather vane" when monitoring the market may be temporarily uncomfortable.

However, since last year, more and more investors believe that "the impact of northbound funds should be viewed rationally", and the new situation tomorrow is obviously what they are happy to see.

According to reports, the Stock Connect trading information disclosure mechanism was originally designed to effectively reveal and remind investors of the use of trading quotas, but the frequency and content of disclosure are different from the general practice of information disclosure in the A-share market, and are also different from the common practice in mainstream international markets.

From the perspective of international practice, mainstream markets such as Europe and the United States do not disclose the transaction information of a specific category of investors in real time during the intraday, nor do they make differentiated arrangements for domestic investors and international investors in terms of transaction information disclosure mechanism.

Earlier we said that tomorrow's market reaction is worth watching and playing.

Single-day ups and downs are important, but trading never stops, and it is believed that the market will soon "naturally select" a new sentiment indicator to help make decisions, and investors who are the first to adapt to change will have a certain advantage.

In addition to the "stealth" of northbound funds, what other major events are worth paying attention to next week?

May 13th

The Ministry of Finance held a mobilization meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds

According to the Financial Associated Press, in order to fully ensure the smooth and smooth development of the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance decided to hold a mobilization and deployment meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, which was scheduled for 9 a.m. The person in charge of the book-entry treasury bond underwriting business of each unit needs to attend the meeting.

On April 22 this year, Wang Jianfan, director of the Budget Department of the Ministry of Finance, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds would be launched in a timely manner according to the allocation of ultra-long-term special treasury bond projects.

OpenAI计划公布新版GPT-4

OpenAI said in a post that it would announce the product update live on Monday. The launch will revolve around ChatGPT as well as updates to the GPT-4 AI model, and GPT-5 will not be launched at the event.

Company CEO Sam Altman posted on social media X on May 10: "It's not GPT-5, it's not a search engine, but we're working on something new that we think people will love!" ”

May 14th

Alibaba will report its FY2024 results

Google announced that it will host the 2024 I/O Developer Conference on the same day

May 15th

Huawei's summer all-scenario new product launch conference will be held at 14:30.

It is expected that nova 12 SE, Enjoy 80, Matebook 14, MatePad 11.5 tablet, WATCHFit3 and more will be released at the conference, as well as a self-developed painting app "Born to Draw".

In addition, Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day due to Buddha's birthday. Trading of Northbound Stock Connect and Southbound Stock Connect will be suspended.

May 16th

"Celebrating More Than Years 2" will land on CCTV-8 and Tencent Video next Thursday, and premiere on dual platforms.

In 2019, after the broadcast of "Celebrating More Than Years", it triggered a craze for chasing dramas on the whole network.

This week, "Celebrating More Than Years 2" exceeded the 15 million mark in Tencent Video, becoming the first TV series to reach the level of 10 million reservations on the whole network.

If you want to participate in the hype of this open card theme, here is a simple sharing of ideas:

First of all, the incident obviously involves the media sector, see what related companies are on the production side, the broadcast side, and the shareholding side, and select the stock pool;

Before the broadcast, observe whether there are funds in the sector to take the lead, which stocks are more popular, and decide whether to follow up.

After the broadcast, observe the reputation and popularity of the TV series, as well as the degree of cash in the capital market, and decide whether to participate.

Although there are popular science essays circulating on the weekend, it is still recommended that everyone do their homework themselves.

May 17th

The National Bureau of Statistics will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy, at which it will release a monthly report on industrial production above designated size, a monthly report on investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), a monthly report on real estate development and sales, a monthly report on the total retail sales of consumer goods, and a monthly report on energy production.

Also released on the same day was the housing price data of 70 cities in April.

According to previous data, in March, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the sales prices of newly built commercial residential buildings in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% month-on-month respectively, the same rate of decline as the previous month.

Market

Next week, the People's Bank of China will have 10 billion yuan of reverse repo due in the open market, of which 2 billion yuan will be due every day from Monday to Friday. In addition, 125 billion yuan of MLF is due on the 15th.

Wind data shows that a total of 60 A-share restricted shares will be lifted next week, with a total of 2.85 billion shares, and the total market value of the ban will be 39.979 billion yuan based on the closing price on May 10.

The top three market capitalizations are: Yahuilong (7.613 billion yuan), Bozhong Seiko (7.015 billion yuan), and Maixinlin (2.276 billion yuan). From the perspective of the number of individual stocks, the top three shares are: Guohai Securities (352 million shares), Bozhon Seiko (349 million shares), and Yahuilong (300 million shares).

In terms of new shares, on the 13th, N Reddy's will be listed on the Growth Enterprise Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange; On the 16th, Maiftse will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange; On the 17th, Hongying City Services will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Second, the recent news inventory

The pace of relaxation of property market policies has accelerated

This week, the two provincial capitals of Hangzhou and Xi'an announced the complete lifting of housing purchase restrictions. Up to now, in addition to Hainan Province, the purchase restriction policy in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen is still relatively strict, and there are still some purchase restriction policies in some core areas of cities such as Guangzhou (below 120 square meters) and Tianjin (new houses under 120 square meters, etc.).

Previously, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places have loosened the purchase restriction policy, and Changsha, Chengdu and other cities have completely canceled the purchase restrictions.

According to some analysts, the recent intensive relaxation of property market policies in hot cities is the specific implementation of the "policy measures for the overall study and digestion of stock real estate and optimization of incremental housing" proposed by the Political Bureau of the Central Committee for the first time at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee on April 30, and the digestion of stock real estate, that is, destocking, is a top priority. Therefore, finding ways to destocking has become the main goal of the new round of policy relaxation in various places.

In A-shares, the real estate development sector rose 2.81% on Friday, but the weekly increase was only 2.58%, which is not particularly impressive.

The real estate services sector, which rose 6.11% on Friday, rose 10.46% this week, second only to synthetic biology.

Du Haomin, an analyst at Guojin Securities, said that the real estate policies of key cities in China, including Beijing, Hangzhou, and Xi'an, have continued to be optimized recently, and more supportive policies are expected to be introduced in the future. At present, the fundamentals of China's real estate industry are already in the bottom range, and the subsequent decline is limited. Valuations in the real estate sector are at historically low levels, and real estate stock prices tend to react faster than the recovery of fundamentals, so we are optimistic about the future trend of real estate stocks.

The lithium battery sector welcomes the new deal

On May 8, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Lithium Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2024 Edition)" (Draft for Comments) and the "Lithium Battery Industry Standard Announcement Management Measures (2024 Edition)" (Draft for Comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "Draft for Comments"). The "Draft for Comments" proposes to guide enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs.

Stimulated by the blockbuster policy of lithium batteries, the new energy sector soared on May 9, and individual stocks set off a tide of daily limits, and the Wind lithium battery index rose more than 4% in a single day, but it pulled back the next day, and rose 2.94% this week.

The financial statistics report for April is out

On May 11, the central bank released its report on financial statistics for April. According to the report, the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of April was 301.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. Industry analysts said that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 balance at the end of April was lower than that in March, mainly due to the recent "diversion" of deposits to the financial market, the idling of funds and the standardization of manual interest supplements, and the optimization and adjustment of value-added accounting in the financial industry. Money supply growth is expected to stabilize in the future.

The data also shows that the stock of social financing scale at the end of April was 389.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 12.73 trillion yuan. Analysts pointed out that the current social finance indicators can better reflect the strength of financial support for the real economy. In addition, the balance of RMB loans increased by 9.6% year-on-year at the end of April, the growth rate was the same as that at the end of the previous month, the total amount of credit maintained a steady growth, and the financing cost achieved a steady decline.

The central bank released the report on China's monetary policy implementation in the first quarter

The report proposes that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. We should rationally grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets, bonds and credit, guide the rational growth and balanced distribution of credit, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and keep the scale of social financing and money supply in line with the expected targets of economic growth and price levels. Maintaining price stability and promoting a moderate recovery in prices should be taken as an important consideration in grasping monetary policy, and policy coordination and cooperation should be strengthened to keep prices at a reasonable level. We will continue to deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rates, give full play to the role of the reform of the loan market prime interest rate and the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of the deposit interest rate, and promote the steady and moderate reduction of corporate financing and household credit costs.

The central bank said that in the medium and long term, the mainland is in a critical period of economic transformation and industrial upgrading, and the supply and demand conditions are expected to continue to improve, the monetary conditions are reasonable and moderate, the residents' expectations are stable, and there is a solid foundation for prices to remain basically stable. The main ideas of monetary policy in the next stage include: first, maintaining a reasonable growth in financing and monetary aggregates; the second is to give full play to the guiding role of monetary and credit policies; the third is to grasp the internal and external balance of interest rates and exchange rates; Fourth, we will continue to deepen financial reform and opening up to the outside world; Fifth, actively and prudently prevent and resolve financial risks.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued new regulations to strengthen the supervision of listed securities firms

On May 10, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and issued the "Provisions on Strengthening the Supervision of Listed Securities Companies". The China Securities Regulatory Commission said that in the next step, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will adhere to the main line of strengthening supervision, preventing risks and promoting development, continue to strengthen the daily supervision of securities companies, strengthen law enforcement accountability, urge listed securities companies to implement a series of new requirements of the "Regulations" in place, and radiate good experience and practices in practice to the whole industry, and promote the high-quality development of securities industry institutions.

Many banks "cut interest rates" and high-interest deposits decreased

Since April, a number of small and medium-sized banks, such as Bank of Guilin, Bank of Wenzhou, and Tongde Rural Commercial Bank, have announced a reduction in deposit interest rates. Industry insiders expect that with the decline in loan interest rates and the narrowing of banks' net interest margins, a new round of deposit interest rate cuts may be ushered in this year.

Overseas markets

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Friday, with the Dow recording eight consecutive gains on a daily basis, up 2.16% this week; The S&P 500 rose 0.16%, up 1.85% for the week; The Nasdaq fell 0.03% and rose 1.14% for the week.

On the news side, Fed officials spoke intensively, and the timing of interest rate cuts is still the focus. The ECB released the minutes of its meeting, and the officials' speeches made a rate cut in June a high probability event. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and the market is looking forward to a June rate cut window. Japan has restarted the "mouth cannon mode", and many Asian countries have launched a "currency defense war".

It is worth mentioning that the Japanese authorities previously intervened in the foreign exchange market, but the effect did not last, and the USD/JPY continued to recover this week, recording a maximum of 155.95, and the market once again paid attention to the 160 integer mark.

3. This week's market review

Index Performance: The dividend index led the gains, while core assets were more sought after

Leading the rise and leading the decline: synthetic biology is hot, and the ST sector has fallen miserably

The number of ups and downs, the number of ups and downs, and the market volume

This week's cumulative gainers: Decliners→ 3410:1861

Weekly rise and fall list of individual stocks

Northbound funds: Shuangda bought Moutai again, and increased its position by nearly 10 billion yuan during the year

Wind data shows that northbound funds sold a large net of 6.304 billion yuan on Friday. This week, northbound funds bought a net of 4.842 billion yuan, the third consecutive week of net buying, and the cumulative net purchase of northbound funds has exceeded 79.086 billion yuan since the beginning of this year.

According to the data, there were 14 A-shares with a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan on Friday. Among them, China Merchants Bank received a net purchase of 400 million yuan, ranking first; Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric Appliances both increased their positions by more than 200 million yuan. On the selling side, CATL reduced its position by 808 million yuan, and the net sales of LONGi Green Energy, Zijin Mining, and WuXi AppTec exceeded 200 million yuan.

In terms of weekly performance, northbound funds bought 4.489 billion yuan of Kweichow Moutai, and China Merchants Bank, Inovance Technology, Haier Smart Home, Luxshare Precision, Ping An of China, Mindray Medical, Sany Heavy Industry, and Bank of Communications all increased their positions by more than 500 million yuan.

On the selling side, Guodian NARI reduced its position by 1.232 billion yuan, and Putailai, Midea Group, Focus Media, Zhongji Innolight, Weichai Power, Yili and Sinopec reduced their positions by more than 500 million yuan.

It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this year, northbound funds have been in love with Kweichow Moutai, with a cumulative net purchase of 9.388 billion yuan, ranking first in the whole market.

In second and third place were CATL and China Merchants Bank, with net purchases of 8.026 billion yuan and 6.313 billion yuan respectively.

It can be seen that the increase in the position of northbound funds is focused on large-cap blue chips.

Guosen Securities believes that the new "National Nine Articles" pay more attention to investor protection and shareholder returns, strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, and the liquor sector, as a long-term high-quality asset, has a stable business model, a deep moat, stable cash flow, and a high dividend payout ratio, so it should be given a certain valuation premium.

National Business Daily

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