Both China and the Philippines are increasing troops in the same place, and the satellite has captured a shocking scene, and a new flashpoint in the South China Sea has appeared?
As the world's attention turned to the massive US-Philippine "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise, the Philippine Coast Guard kept a low profile and sent a patrol ship to the waters of Sembin Reef to confront the Chinese Coast Guard for several days. This reef, which has not had a maritime dispute for many years, may become a new tipping point for the situation in the South China Sea after Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal.
[The patrol ship "Teresa Magbanua" sent by the Philippines to Senbin Reef]
The Philippine Coast Guard's ship, named "Teresa Magbanua," is a Japanese-made 97-meter-class patrol ship and the largest patrol ship of the Philippine Coast Guard. Around April 27, the ship appeared in the waters of Sembin Reef and has not left until now.
After the Philippine vessel appeared, the Chinese Coast Guard 3303 also rushed to the nearby waters to track and monitor the ship. Since then, more and more Chinese ships have converged on Xianbin Reef.
According to the pictures taken by Western commercial satellites, at least 10 Chinese vessels have gathered in Xianbin Reef, most of which are civilian vessels such as fishing boats, and only two Chinese coast guard vessels, namely the 3303 ship and the 4202 ship that arrived later, and the tonnage and firepower of these two ships are not weaker than those of the Philippine ships.
[Situation map of Xianbin Reef captured by Western commercial satellites]
Since the Chinese and Philippine law enforcement agencies have not released any information, the outside world does not know the specific situation in the waters of Xianbin Jiao, let alone whether there have been similar maritime confrontations between the two sides in places such as Ren'ai Jiao.
However, from the satellite imagery, we can still confirm that the Chinese ships operating at the Senbin Reef have in fact formed an encirclement against the "Teresa Magbanua", and no matter which direction the ship sails, there are Chinese ships that can intercept it.
This delicate situation at Sembin Reef is inextricably linked to the special geographical location of this reef. It is located between Ren'ai Reef and Palawan Island in the Philippines, about 160 kilometers from Palawan Island, about 60 kilometers from Ren'ai Reef, and about 100 kilometers from Mischief Reef, where China has completed land reclamation. At the same time, the reef area of Xianbin Reef is not small, and the water surface can be exposed at low tide, and there is the possibility of land reclamation.
In fact, the Philippine side has long had ideas about this island and reef. But China has long since exercised de facto control over the reef, with Chinese fishing vessels operating in the South China Sea often stopping near the reef to recuperate, and Chinese coast guard and navy vessels patrolling the nearby waters. Although the Philippines also sends ships to nearby waters, confrontations like this one rarely occur.
[Chinese fishing boats used to often stop in Xianbin Reef to rest]
On the other hand, from the perspective of the Philippines, as the situation in the South China Sea deteriorates, China may take countermeasures against the Philippines in multiple directions in the future, actively strengthen the deployment of Xianbin Reef, further complete actual control, and even reclaim land here, which is one of the options.
The Philippines is now suddenly sending its largest ship to operate here, probably to interfere with China's normal activities on Xianbin Reef and prevent China from taking action one day in the future.
In addition, the ship's trip to Xianbin Reef came just before other Philippine ships left for Scarborough Shoal, and it cannot be ruled out that the Philippine side deliberately wanted to use this ship to distract China's attention. The fact that the ship has not withdrawn to mainland China after the Scarborough Shoal incident may be an attempt to continue to attract the attention of the Chinese Coast Guard and pave the way for future operations in directions such as Ren'ai Jiao.
Not long ago, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued an order asking the Coast Guard to adjust the operation mode of Ren'ai Jiao, and judging from the information disclosed by the Philippine side, the Philippine side may not blindly break into Ren'ai Jiao in the future, but try to send building materials to the broken ship in a more flexible way. The containment operation at Sembin Reef is a possible step for the Philippine side.
[Marcos Jr. orders the Philippine Coast Guard to adjust the operation mode of Ren'ai Jiao]
The last possibility is that the Philippine side has determined that it will be difficult for it to change the situation at Ren'ai Jiao, maintain the existence of the broken ship for a long time, and want to retreat to the next best thing, fight for control of Xianbin Jiao, and obtain a new forward base. Moreover, compared to Ren'ai Reef, Xianbin Reef is farther away from Mischief Reef and closer to the Philippine mainland, and the Philippine operation here can reduce the presence of the Mischief Reef base, which will give China an advantage.
Even if it does not really seize control of Sembin Reef, the Philippines can use this to ensure the heat of the South China Sea issue, meet Washington's demands, and ensure that it can continue to reap "benefits" from the United States, Japan and other countries. Marcos Jr. and others can also continue to create an atmosphere of confrontation at home, competing for personal and family interests.
If this is the case, the Philippine side's current actions are to test China's defense strength in this direction and pave the way for its own larger-scale actions in the future.
However, under the strong encirclement of ships such as the 3303 and 4202 ships, the Philippine side should also be able to realize that China's defense in the waters near Xianbin Reef is no weaker than that of Ren'ai Jiao and other places, and if it really wants to provoke here, China has enough strength to launch countermeasures.
[China has absolute strength to respond to changes in the situation in various parts of the South China Sea]
Not to mention, when the time comes to a crisis, it is very likely that the maritime confrontation between China and the Philippines will no longer be limited to law enforcement forces, but will evolve into a confrontation between naval fleets. In recent days, three Type 055 destroyers of the Chinese Navy have appeared in the South China Sea, which, together with other ships and shore-based forces stationed on islands and reefs, is enough to deal with any action by the US and Philippine forces.
Finally, to sum up, although it has hit a wall at Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal one after another, the Marcos Jr. administration is still unwilling to accept the fact that it cannot change the overall situation in the South China Sea, jumps off the "chariot" of the United States, and stops provocations in the South China Sea.
In the coming period, the frequency of various provocative actions launched by the Philippines in the South China Sea will increase, and Xianbin Reef and Tiexian Reef may become the next flashpoint of the situation in the South China Sea, China's countermeasures may also change, and plans such as land reclamation in Xianbin Reef may be put on the agenda.