After the end of the epidemic control, the number of flights on China-South Korea routes has continued to grow, and the number of flights has gradually risen to the first place among the navigable countries in Chinese mainland, with outstanding performance and a trend of continuous growth. This paper compares the sample data before and after the epidemic to analyze the performance and changes of the China-South Korea route market in different market environments before and after the epidemic.
The number of flights has gradually risen to the top spot
The recovery level is higher than the overall level of China's civil aviation international routes
In 2019, Chinese mainland and South Korea had an average of 319 flights per day, ranking third among all navigable countries (Thailand and Japan ranked first and second respectively), accounting for 14.5% of the total number of international flights in mainland China. After three years of the impact of the epidemic, China's civil aviation international market will gradually recover in 2023, with an average of 151 flights per day between Chinese mainland and South Korea in 2023, ranking first among all navigable countries, accounting for 18.17%. The average daily flight recovery was 47.3% in 19 years, in line with the overall recovery level of international flights in Chinese mainland (47.3%). And it ranked third among the top 10 countries in terms of flight volume in 23 years, behind the UAE and Singapore.
At the beginning of 2023, international flights began to gradually resume after the epidemic, and South Korea gradually surpassed Japan and Thailand to become the first country in Chinese mainland in terms of general flight volume. In the first quarter of 2024, the average daily flight of mainland China to South Korea was 246, still ranking first among all navigable countries, recovering to 83.4% of the same period in 19, second only to Singapore promoted by the visa-free policy among the top ten countries in terms of general aviation flights, and significantly higher than the overall recovery level of international flights in Chinese mainland (64.2%).
The flight data for the week of April 22 to April 28, 2024 and the week of April 22 to April 28, 2019 were used as samples for statistical analysis. In the 2019 sample, there were 2,145 flights between China and South Korea, including 2,113 direct flights and 32 stopover flights. In the 2024 sample, there will be 1,669 flights between China and South Korea, including 1,641 direct flights and 28 stopover flights. In the '24 sample, weekly flights recovered to 77% of the same period in '19. Before and after the epidemic, more than 98% of the flights on China-South Korea routes were direct flights, and direct flights have always been the absolute main force.
South Korea and Asiana reduced capacity investment on China-South Korea routes
The share of Chinese airlines has become dominant
In the 24-year sample, 14 Chinese airlines had 1,089 flights a week, accounting for 65.25%, and the capacity was 185,400, accounting for 61.53%; Seven Korean airlines have 580 flights a week, accounting for 34.75%, and have invested 115,900 seats, accounting for 38.47%. In the same period of 2019, 15 Chinese airlines had 1,129 flights a week, accounting for 51.63%, and the capacity was 193,800, accounting for 46.25%; Seven Korean airlines had 1,016 flights a week, accounting for 47.37%, and 225,200 seats were put into operation, accounting for 53.75%.
Before the epidemic, Chinese and Korean airlines were relatively balanced in terms of flight operation and capacity investment on China-South Korea routes, with Chinese airlines having slightly higher flight volume and South Korean airlines investing slightly more. In the 24-year sample, the proportion of Chinese airlines in flight volume and capacity investment has increased to more than 60%, highlighting the dominant position. Chinese airlines have recovered more and invested more actively on the China-South Korea route.
Comparing the data of the two sample weeks before and after the epidemic, the number of Chinese airlines participating in the operation of China-South Korea routes has dropped from 15 to 14, while the number of Korean airlines before and after the epidemic is 7. Specific airline changes, China's Capital Airlines, Okay Air, Donghai Airlines withdrew, Loong Airlines and West Airlines joined, South Korea's Seoul Airlines withdrew, and Easter Airlines joined. The airlines that changed were all carriers with a relatively small capacity share, and the main operating airlines were unchanged.
Korean Air has always ranked first in capacity investment, but its proportion has dropped from 23.53% in 19 years to 18.24% in 24 years, a significant decline. China Eastern Airlines surpassed Asiana Airlines after the epidemic and ranked second in terms of capacity investment, accounting for 18.07% of the total. Asiana Airlines' capacity share dropped sharply from 22.73% to 11.53%, dropping from second place to third place. Among the 12 Chinese airlines and 6 Korean airlines that participated in the operation before and after the epidemic, the proportion of capacity of Chinese airlines has increased to varying degrees, the proportion of capacity of 4 Korean airlines has increased, and the proportion of capacity of Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, which have invested the most in capacity, has decreased significantly. The reduction in capacity investment by the top two airlines ultimately led to a decrease in the overall share of Korean airlines, while the share of Chinese airlines increased accordingly. In addition, the six Korean airlines that operated routes between China and South Korea before and after the epidemic were low-cost carriers, except for Korean Air and Asiana Airlines, which ranked among the top two. Of the 17 Chinese airlines, there are only three low-cost airlines (Chunqiu, Tianjin, and Western).
Most of the change destinations are airports in second- and third-tier cities and below
The number of flights to Zhangjiajie Lotus has increased by about 5 times
In 24 years, there were a total of 140 China-South Korea routes, including 134 direct flights and 6 stopovers. In the same period of 19 years, there were 130 routes between China and South Korea, including 126 direct flights and 4 stopovers. Compared with 19 years in 24 years, 30 new direct flight routes were opened between China and South Korea (A-B AND B-A are counted as two routes in this article), 38 routes were suspended, and the number of direct flight routes decreased by 8; 2 stopover routes were suspended and no new ones were added, and the number decreased by 2.
Comparing the two samples before and after the epidemic, the South Korean side has always had 7 destinations in Seoul Incheon, Seoul Gimpo, Jeju, Cheongju, Gwangju Muan, Daegu and Gimhae, and Seoul's routes accounted for 60%. The high concentration of air routes in Seoul is related to the national conditions of South Korea itself, and Seoul is the capital of South Korea, which concentrates a quarter of South Korea's population and accounts for 21% of the country's GDP. China's waypoints are concentrated in the area east of the Hu Huanyong Line, with 39 in the 24-year sample, one less than in the 19-year sample. The number of destinations in China has changed slightly, but the specific airports have changed. In addition to the impact of airport transfers, the destinations of China-South Korea routes reduced include Urumqi Diwopu, Nantong Xingdong, Hefei Xinqiao, Huangshan Tunxi, and Guilin Liangjiang. The new destinations include Fuzhou Changle, Wuxi Shuofang, and Yulin Yuyang. The change destinations are all airports in second- and third-tier cities and below.
Among all China-South Korea destinations, only Zhangjiajie Hehua, Nanjing Lukou and Hangzhou Xiaoshan have achieved a year-on-year increase in flight volume for 19 years. Zhangjiajie Lotus's China-South Korea flights have increased by about five times, and the performance is outstanding. Nanjing Lukou and Hangzhou Xiaoshan grew by 61% and 37%, respectively. Gwangju, Jeju and Daegu were the top three destinations in South Korea in terms of flight volume recovery, which recovered to 100%, 92.79% and 91.67% respectively in the same period of '19, all of which did not achieve growth.
Zhangjiajie Lotus has added 8 new routes to South Korea
Qingdao Jiaodong-Seoul Incheon has the largest number of flights
In terms of route changes, at least one of the reduced routes is a hub airport in a non-first-tier city. Among the new routes, Zhangjiajie Hehua Airport has 8 new routes, which is the most new routes to South Korea in the mainland. After 2001, South Korea set off a tourism boom in Zhangjiajie. In recent years, the blessing and publicity of variety shows and new media have made Zhangjiajie extremely popular in South Korea. In South Korea, there is even a saying that "if you are filial to your parents, send them to Zhangjiajie". The tourism boom has given a strong impetus to the development of Zhangjiajie's Korean routes. The successful tourism promotion of Zhangjiajie also provides an excellent example for other tourist cities in mainland China to explore the international market.
Seoul and Incheon have added 14 new routes, making it the most new routes between China and South Korea. The 14 new routes include Beijing Daxing and Chengdu Tianfu, which are newly opened, and most of them are second-tier and below city airports. Jeju added 8 new routes, following Seoul Incheon. Eight routes are connected to Beijing Daxing, Nanjing Lukou, Zhengzhou Xinzheng and Fuzhou Changle. Jeju Island, thanks to its visa-free access and low fares, has attracted a large number of Chinese tourists, driving the expansion of Jeju routes.
In the 24-year sample, Qingdao Jiaodong-Seoul Incheon round-trip route ranked first in terms of flight volume, with 200 round-trip flights a week, and ranked second in terms of capacity, with 35,308 round-trip seats in a week. Shanghai Pudong - Seoul Incheon ranked second in terms of flight volume, with 90 round-trip flights a week, and ranked first in terms of capacity, with 36,823 round-trip seats in a week. Qingdao is close to South Korea and has close economic ties between the two countries, and South Korea is Qingdao's second largest source of investment and second largest trading partner. In recent years, Qingdao has also become a new highland for the development of cross-border e-commerce between China and South Korea. Frequent economic exchanges provide a strong and steady demand for routes between Qingdao and Seoul.
In terms of the degree of recovery, the flights of the top 10 routes in terms of flight volume/capacity have recovered more than 80%, and the capacity has recovered more than 60%. Yanji Chaoyangcheon-Seoul Incheon is the only route in the top 10 routes to achieve 19-year year-on-year growth, with flight volume and capacity increasing by more than 10%. Yanji is a border city in the northeast of the mainland, bordering North Korea and close to South Korea, and has close ties in many aspects such as economy and culture. Among the top 10 routes, the number of operating airlines on the Qingdao Jiaodong-Seoul Incheon route decreased by 1 (Asiana Airlines), and the number of operating airlines on the Beijing-Seoul Incheon route decreased by 1 (China Southern Airlines, affected by the transfer of the capital airport). The number of airlines operating the Yanji Chaoyangcheon-Seoul Incheon route increased by 2 (China Eastern Airlines and Jeju Airlines).
A total of 12 flights on China-South Korea routes have achieved a year-on-year increase in 19 years, of which Zhangjiajie Lotus and Jinhai have doubled, ranking first. Xi'an Xianyang Fei Jinhai also increased by 2 times, tied for the first place. Hangzhou Xiaoshan to Seoul Incheon increased by 71%, ranking second, and Hangzhou Xiaoshan to Jeju increased by 44%, ranking third.
brief summary
After the post-epidemic recovery stage, South Korea gradually surpassed Japan and Thailand to become the country with the largest number of flights in Chinese mainland, and the recovery degree is also higher than the overall level of China's international market. Korean Air and Asiana Airlines have reduced their investment on China-South Korea routes, with a significant decrease in their share, while Chinese airlines have generally been more active in capacity investment. The pattern of Chinese and South Korean airlines on China-South Korea routes has changed from a relative balance before the epidemic to more than 60% of Chinese airlines, and the dominant position of Chinese airlines has emerged. The Chinese destinations of the China-South Korea routes are concentrated in the economically developed eastern region, and more than 60% of the destinations in South Korea are concentrated in Seoul. Zhangjiajie Lotus performed well in terms of flight volume and route growth, and Seoul, Incheon, and Jeju had the largest growth among South Korean destinations.
The good recovery of China-Korea routes is based on the stability of market demand, the promotion of the Chinese and Korean governments, and the operation of Chinese and Korean airlines. In addition, the construction of a transit route network for Chinese tourists to transit to North America through South Korea, or for Korean tourists to transit to Southeast Asia and Europe through China, has also promoted the development of the China-South Korea route market. The China-South Korea route reflects the close economic exchanges and cultural and tourism exchanges between China and South Korea, and the biggest driving force for the resumption of China-South Korea routes also comes from this. Shortly after the start of May, Shenzhen Airlines announced the resumption of flights between Shenzhen and Jeju. It is expected that more airlines will resume or open new routes to China and South Korea in the future, and the continuous growth of China-South Korea routes will continue.