The latest data sounded the alarm of stagflation: the University of Michigan announced that the preliminary value of U.S. consumer confidence in May fell sharply to 67.4 more than expected, hitting a new low in half a year and the largest month-on-month decline in nearly three years; Inflation expectations for the next five years also remained unchanged in April, rising 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 3.1%.
At a time when consumer sentiment, which is often seen as a barometer of the U.S. economy, has been hit by high inflation, Fed officials have been hawkish. Fed Governor Bowman said she doesn't think the Fed is suitable for a rate cut this year, saying that the inflation data in the first few months of this year was disappointing and that it will take longer for her to be confident that inflation will fall to target; Dallas Fed President Logan said it was too early to consider a rate cut given the poor inflation data in the first month of the year.
The U.S. dollar index jumped intraday after the release of consumer confidence and inflation expectations, as U.S. Treasury prices retreated and yields rose intraday. After Bowman's speech, Treasury yields refreshed their daily highs, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note no longer near its near one-month low set on Tuesday, and the yield, which is sensitive to interest rates, erased the week's decline and rose to a one-week intraday high.
The threat of stagflation suppressed the U.S. stock market, the Nasdaq, which had just stopped two consecutive declines on Thursday, returned to decline, the S&P turned down several times in the short term, and the Dow gave up most of its gains at the beginning of the session, struggling to maintain a winning streak for more than a week. The tech giants mostly retreated, with Tesla leading the decline. The media said that the United States will impose new tariffs on electric vehicles, solar equipment and other industries, and new energy vehicle stocks fell as a whole, while the debut of ZEEKR, the largest Chinese IPO in the past three years, was amazing, once rising nearly 40%. Chip stocks that fell against the market on Thursday rebounded overall, with TSMC's U.S. stocks, whose sales soared nearly 60% year-on-year in April, rising more than 5% intraday, and Nvidia reversing a three-day losing streak.
After the European Central Bank meeting minutes showed that central bank officials favored interest rate cuts in June, the pan-European stock index continued to rise for a week, and joined hands with German stocks and British stocks to hit a record closing record high for consecutive days.
Among commodities, gold, which rose more than 1% intraday after the release of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, gave up at least half of its gains, but ended up in the second two days, the biggest weekly gain since the geopolitical risks increased in early April, mainly due to Israel's decision to attack Middle East situations such as Rafah and U.S. unemployment data favoring the prospect of interest rate cuts. After the release of the U.S. data, international crude oil, which hit a new high for more than a week in intraday trading, accelerated its retreat, once falling more than 2% from its daily high, falling from the high of this month set by two consecutive days.
U.S. oil rebounded slightly as it retreated on Friday, failing to reverse last week's sharp decline. This week, the market is focused on the prospect of a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire. On Friday, CCTV quoted media sources as saying that the current round of ceasefire negotiations has ended, and the Israeli side has not made progress, but a new round of talks may be held, and the head of the Hamas delegation said that Hamas has not frozen and withdrawn from the ceasefire negotiation process. The oil market is also watching for signs of supply and demand in the United States. On Wednesday, the day of the announcement of the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, oil prices rebounded, and U.S. oil rose more than 3% intraday low.
The S&P has turned down in the short term many times, the Dow Jones has recorded the largest weekly rise in nearly five months, Nvidia rebounds, TSMC rises, Novavax doubles, and Zeekrypton once rose nearly 40%
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened higher, and then performed mixed. The Nasdaq Composite, which rose nearly 0.6% at the start of the session, turned lower less than an hour after opening and fell more than 0.3% in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 190 points, or nearly 0.5%, at the beginning of the session, before giving up more than half of its gains, rising less than 19 points at the end of the morning session and extending its gains to more than 100 points at midday. The S&P 500 index, which rose nearly 0.5% at the beginning of the session, turned lower several times in the short term, falling less than 0.1%. In the end, only the Nasdaq closed lower in the three major indexes.
The Nasdaq closed down 0.03% at 16,340.87, failing to extend Thursday's rally and still far from Monday's closing high since April 11. The S&P closed up 0.16% at 5,222.68, up for two consecutive days, and the Dow both refreshed their closing highs since April 1. The Dow closed up 125.08 points, or 0.32%, at 39,512.84, up eight consecutive trading days and the longest winning streak since December 19, 2023 for four consecutive days.
The Russell 2000, a small-cap index dominated by value stocks, closed down 0.67%, underperforming the broader market, retreating after rebounding to its highest level since April 9 on Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closed up 0.26%, rising for two consecutive days and refreshing its closing high since April 11. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of the technology constituents in the Nasdaq 100 index, closed up 0.38%, rebounding after three consecutive declines, approaching Monday's highest level since April 11 and up 1.55% for the week.
Major U.S. stock indexes continued to gain this week. The S&P rose 1.85%, the Nasdaq rose 1.14%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.51%, and the Russell 2000 rose 1.18%, all rising for three consecutive weeks. The Dow rose 2.16%, its biggest weekly gain since the week of December 15, 2023, and rose for four consecutive weeks.
Among the Dow constituents, McDonald's closed up 2.6% to lead the gains, 3M, which was upgraded from hold to buy by HSBC, rose 1.6%, Procter & Gamble rose nearly 0.5% to close to a record high, while Nike fell 2.6%, Boeing fell 1.5%, fell 9.5% after Tuesday's earnings report, and Disney, which closed almost flat, fell 6.9% this week.
Among the major sectors of the S&P 500, a total of six closed up on Friday, consumer staples rose more than 0.6%, Nvidia and other chip stocks in IT rose nearly 0.5%, among the five sectors that closed down, Tesla's consumer discretionary fell more than 0.6%, the largest decline, the decline dragged down by crude oil fell nearly 0.6%, interest rate-sensitive real estate fell 0.4%, and Google and Meta's communication services fell nearly 0.2%.
All sectors rose this week, with the exception of consumer discretionary, which rose nearly 0.2%, other sectors rose at least more than 1%, led by utilities up about 4%, financials up more than 3%, materials, industrials, consumer staples all rose more than 2%, and communication services and medical rose about 2%.
Including Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook's parent company Meta, and Tesla, the "Seven Sisters" of tech giants have risen and fallen. Tesla, which fell the most, turned down at the beginning of the session, falling nearly 2.5% at midday, closing down about 2%, falling for four consecutive days, refreshing the low closing level since April 26, and falling about 7% this week after rising sharply for two consecutive weeks.
Among FAANMG's six major technology stocks, Apple, which had risen for three consecutive days, turned down at the beginning of the session, falling more than 1% in early trading and closing down 0.7%, failing to continue to approach the closing high since February 22 set last Friday after the announcement of the earnings report; Alphabet, which rebounded on Thursday, fell more than 1% in early trading and closed down nearly 0.8%, falling from the high since April 26, which rose for five consecutive days on Tuesday; Amazon, which rebounded to a record closing high on Thursday, turned up in the short term at the beginning of the session, closing down nearly 1.1%; Netflix, which rose for seven consecutive days on Thursday to its highest level since April 17, rose more than 1.9% at the beginning of the day, and turned lower in early trading, closing down 0.2%; Microsoft, which rose more than 0.7% at the beginning of the session, gave up more than half of its gains in early trading, closing up 0.6%, rising for three consecutive days, refreshing the closing high since April 12; Meta fell more than 1% after turning lower in early trading, closing up nearly 0.2%, rising for eight consecutive days and six days to refresh the high since April 24.
Most of these six technology stocks rose this week, Meta and Netflix rose about 5.4%, Microsoft rose about 2%, Alphabet rose nearly 0.8%, Amazon rose nearly 0.7%, and Apple, which rose more than 8% in last week's earnings week, fell nearly 0.2%.
Chip stocks rebounded overall. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Semiconductor Industry ETF SOXX rose nearly 2.1% and nearly 2% respectively at the beginning of the session, before retreating somewhat, closing up about 1%, rebounding after retreating on Thursday, close to Monday's highs since April 11, rising nearly 2% and 1.9% respectively for the week. Among chip stocks, Nvidia, which fell for three consecutive days on Thursday to its lowest level since May 2, rose 3% at the beginning of the session, closed up nearly 1.3%, and rose more than 1.2% this week; TSMC's U.S. stocks rose about 5.4% in early trading and closed up 4.5%; At the close, Micron Technology rose nearly 3%, Broadcom rose more than 2%2%, Qualcomm rose nearly 0.9%, and Intel fell 0.8%.
AI concept stocks were mixed. After announcing that the loss in the first quarter widened more than expected, but the revenue surged by 73% more than expected, and it is expected to grow strongly this year, SoundHound.ai (SOUN) rose nearly 25.7% in early trading and closed up 7.2%; At the close, BigBear.ai (BBAI) fell more than 6%, Palantir (PLTR) fell 2.5%, C3.ai (AI) fell nearly 1.9%, and Super Microcomputer (SMCI), which had risen more than 4% in early trading, fell nearly 0.2%; Adobe (ADBE) fell less than 0.1%; Oracle (ORCL) rose less than 0.1%, and Astera Labs (ALAB), known as "Little Nvidia" and sells data center interconnect chips, rose slightly.
Popular Chinese concept stocks, which rebounded on Thursday, generally retreated. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC), which reversed a three-day losing streak on Thursday, retreated, rising nearly 0.8% at the beginning of the session, closing down nearly 0.6% after turning lower in early trading, and falling 1.9% for the week after two consecutive weeks of gains. Chinese ETFs KWEB and CQQQ closed down 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. At the close, Xpeng Motors fell about 5.3%, NIO fell nearly 4.9%, Li Auto fell 2.2%, Xiaomi Fan fell nearly 0.5%, and Zeekr Automobile (ZK) opened at $26 on the first day of listing, up 23.8% from the issue price of $2.1 billion at the top of the guidance range, and rose nearly 40% intraday to close up 34.6%. Among other stocks, by the close, JinkoSolar fell more than 9%, Daqo New Energy fell more than 5%, Baidu fell 2%, fell less than 1%, JD.com fell 0.5%, Tencent Pink Sheet fell nearly 0.2%, Pinduoduo fell less than 0.1%, while Alibaba rose 0.7%, Station B rose 0.4%, and NetEase rose slightly.
The bank stock index rose for three consecutive days. The overall banking index, the KBW Bank Index (BKX), closed up nearly 0.2%, refreshing its highest level since March 2023 for three consecutive days, and rising 2.7% this week; The regional bank index KBW Nasdaq Regional Banking Index (KRX) closed up less than 0.1%, updating its highest level since March 28 for three days and rising 1.3% for the week, while the regional bank stock ETF SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which rose for two consecutive days to its highest level since January 30, closed down 0.1% and rose 1.4% for the week.
Among the volatile stocks, after reaching a $1.2 billion licensing agreement with Sanofi for the development and commercialization of a new crown vaccine, and Sanofi will also invest $70 million to buy less than 5% of its shares, making its valuation almost double its market value, Novavax (NVAX) rose more than 120% at the open, rose 146% in early trading, and closed up 98.7%; On the first day of listing of AltC Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) through a merger, OpenAI CEO Altman's first nuclear fission technology start-up Oklo Inc. (OKLO) closed down nearly 53.7%.
Among the stocks that reported their earnings reports, cloud service provider Akamai Technologies (AKAM), which had lower-than-expected revenue and earnings guidance in the second quarter, closed down 11%, Unity Software (U), which lost more than expected in the first quarter, closed down 10.2%, and Dianping Yelp (YELP), which had higher-than-expected first-quarter earnings but poor guidance in the second quarter, closed down 7.1%. Medical device company Insulet (PODD), which had higher-than-expected revenue and earnings in the first quarter, closed down 6.6%; Salad chain Sweetgreen (SG), which raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance, closed up 34%.
In terms of European stocks, the pan-European stock index rose for six consecutive days. The Euro Stoxx 600 index hit a record closing record high for the fourth consecutive day. Stock indexes of major European countries rose, German, French and British stocks rose for six consecutive days, British stocks and German stocks hit record highs for six consecutive trading days and three consecutive days, French stocks also refreshed their closing record highs, Italian stocks rose for two consecutive days, and Western stocks rebounded on Thursday.
Among the sectors, utilities rose more than 1.4% to lead the gains, benefiting from the announcement of strong renewable energy production to drive a 12% year-on-year increase in core profit in the first quarter, Italy-listed Enel closed up 3.8%, and Portugal's largest utility EDP, whose net profit exceeded expectations, rose 3.9%; The retail sector rose 1.4%, and among the constituents, Zalando, which Berenberg upgraded from hold to buy, rose 3.3%; The underlying resources where the mining stocks are located rose more than 1.2%, and the constituent Anglo American Resources rose 1.4%, according to the media, after BHP Billiton offered $39 billion to seek a takeover, Rio Tinto considered bidding for Anglo American; After reaching a vaccine licensing agreement with Novavax, France-listed Sanofi closed up 1.2%, supporting the medical sector to rise more than 0.7%.
The Stoxx 600 index rose about 3% this week, rebounding after retreating last week, updating its biggest weekly gain since January 26 last week and gaining for the fifth week in the last six weeks. Stock indexes from all over the world have risen cumulatively, with German stocks rising more than 4% to lead, and French, Italian and Spanish stocks rebounded after retreating last week, and British stocks rose for three consecutive weeks last Monday.
Among the sectors, utilities led the way this week, up nearly 4.7%, technology rose 4.2%, and among the constituents, Infineon, which rose nearly 13% after Tuesday's earnings report, rose just over 20%, while the best-performing properties that rose more than 4% last week fell more than 3%.
Treasury yields accelerated after Fed officials' speeches and the two-year yield hit a one-week high
The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell below 4.45% at the beginning of the European market, close to the low since April 10 when it was forced to 4.42% on Tuesday, and then continued to rise, and the U.S. consumer inflation expectations accelerated after the announcement, rising above 4.50%, after the Fed officials spoke, they were forced to 4.51% to refresh the daily high, rising more than 5 basis points in the day, and about 4.50% at the end of the bond market, up about 5 basis points in the day, and falling by about 1 basis point in the week, falling for two weeks in a row.
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to the outlook for interest rates, was tested at 4.81% in early European trading, refreshing the daily low, and the U.S. stock rose above 4.87% at midday, refreshing the non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, May 3, which contributed to the intraday high in interest rate cut expectations, erasing the decline in the week, and about 4.87% at the end of the bond market, up more than 5 basis points in the day, and the yields on other maturities rebounded after retreating on Thursday. The 2-year yield has risen by about 5 basis points this week, rebounding after falling sharply by about 17 basis points last week.
After the announcement of inflation expectations, the dollar index jumped intraday and Bitcoin fell more than $3,000 intraday
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks a basket of six major currencies such as the U.S. dollar against the euro, has repeatedly turned down in the short term before the U.S. stock market, the U.S. stock market fell below 105.15 in early trading after the start of the day, down less than 0.1% in the day, and the U.S. consumer inflation expectations quickly turned up after the announcement and maintained the rally, the U.S. stock market hit a daily high of 105.40 in early trading, up nearly 0.2% in the day, still far away from the low since the release of the U.S. March CPI on April 10, which was close to 104.50 on Friday.
By the close of the U.S. stock market on Friday, the U.S. dollar index was at the 105.30 line, up less than 0.1% during the day, and up nearly 0.3% this week; The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against 10 other currencies, rose less than 0.1% during the day, not continuing to close to the low level since the same period since April 11, which was refreshed last Friday, and rose 0.2% this week, and the U.S. dollar index rebounded after stopping three consecutive gains on Thursday, and rebounded after falling for two consecutive weeks this week.
Among the non-U.S. currencies, the dollar rose against the yen in early U.S. trading to 155.90 in early trading, close to the high since May 1, which approached 156.00 on Thursday, and rose nearly 0.3% during the day; The euro against the dollar U.S. stocks rose above 1.0790 at the beginning of the day to refresh the daily high, the U.S. inflation expectations turned down after the announcement, the U.S. stock market had a test of 1.0760 in early trading to refresh the daily low, the U.S. stock closed hovering at 1.0770, down about 0.1% in the day, failing to approach the high since April 10 set by last Friday's rise above 1.0810; the pound against the dollar had risen above 1.2540 before the European stock market to refresh the daily high, the U.S. inflation expectations were announced and turned down, and the U.S. stock closed above 1.2520, up less than 0.1% during the day , not approaching the low since April 24, which fell below 1.2450 on Thursday.
The offshore yuan (CNH) refreshed its daily high against the dollar at 7.2202 in early Asian trading, and soon turned lower to maintain its decline, and U.S. stocks fell to 7.2347 at midday, refreshing the low since May 2 after falling to 7.23 on Thursday, and fell 124 points during the day. At 4:59 on May 11, Beijing time, the offshore yuan was quoted at 7.2341 yuan against the US dollar, down 118 points from the end of New York on Thursday, falling back after stopping three consecutive declines on Thursday, and falling 413 points this week after rebounding last week, and falling for the third week in the last seven weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,400 before the U.S. stock market refreshed the daily high, and some platforms rose above $63,600, U.S. stocks accelerated their decline in early trading, falling below $60,300 at midday, refreshing the low since Friday, May 3, down more than $3,000 from the daily high, down more than 5%, and the U.S. stock market hovered at $61,000 at the close, down nearly 3% in the last 24 hours, and down more than 2% in the last seven days.
Crude oil fell more than 2% intraday and fell from the high level this month, and U.S. oil still rebounded throughout the week
International crude oil futures turned down intraday, European stocks refreshed their highs since May 1 before the market, the United States WTI crude oil approached $80, up nearly 0.9% during the day, Brent crude oil rose above $84.50, up nearly 0.8% during the day, after the U.S. stock market announced consumer inflation expectations in early trading, crude oil accelerated downward, and turned down at the end of morning trading.
At midday, U.S. oil fell to $78.2, down more than 1.3% on the day, down 2.2% from the daily high, and Brent oil fell below $82.80, down nearly 1.4% on the day, down more than 2.1% from the daily high.
As a result, crude oil fell off Thursday's closing highs since Tuesday, April 30. WTI crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $1.00, or 1.26%, at $78.26 a barrel, refreshing the low level since May 3; Brent crude oil futures for July delivery closed down $1.09, or 1.30%, at $82.79 a barrel, updating their lowest level since March 12 set on Friday.
U.S. oil rose 0.19% this week, rebounding after falling nearly 6.9% last week, and Brent oil fell 0.20% for two consecutive weeks, far less than the biggest weekly decline since February 2, which fell about 6% last week. In the 31 weeks since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, U.S. oil has risen in the 14th week and Brent oil has fallen in the 8th week. After rising more than 10% in the first quarter, in the six weeks so far in the second quarter, U.S. oil has risen for the third week and cloth oil has fallen for the fourth week.
London copper weighed $10,000, London fell 1.5%, still rebounded throughout the week, and gold closed at a three-week high and the biggest weekly rise in a month
Base metals futures in London were mostly lower on Friday. Lunxi, which rose more than 1.8% on Thursday, fell 1.5% to lead the decline, failing to continue to approach the more than one-week high set on Tuesday, and London nickel, London aluminum, and London lead all fell back after rebounding on Thursday. London nickel did not continue to approach the two-week high set on Tuesday. London aluminum fell more than 1%, falling to the lowest level since last Thursday, approaching the nearly three-week low set last Thursday. Lead began to fall off Tuesday's highest level since November. And London zinc rose for two consecutive days, close to the high set on Tuesday since the end of March last year. London copper, which closed flat on Thursday, rose about 1% to close above the $10,000 mark on Tuesday for the second day of the week.
Most of the base metals rose this week, London copper rose nearly 1%, rebounded after stopping four consecutive weeks last week, London zinc rose more than 0.9%, London lead rose 0.3%, rose for two weeks, and London tin rose more than 0.3% for two weeks; London nickel, which rebounded last week, fell nearly 1.5%, and London aluminum fell nearly 0.9%, falling for three consecutive weeks.
Gold maintained its rally throughout the day on Friday, with gold futures rising to $2,385.3 in New York, up more than 1.9% on the day, and spot gold rising above $2,378, up nearly 1.4% on the day when European stocks refreshed their highs since April 21. After the announcement of U.S. consumer inflation expectations, gold prices in U.S. stocks narrowed their gains in early trading, gold futures fell to $2363.2, up less than 1% during the day, and spot gold fell below $2357, up less than 0.5% during the day.
By the close of U.S. stock midday gold futures, COMEX June gold futures closed up 1.48% at $2,375 per ounce, up for two consecutive days, refreshing the closing high since April 19, and up nearly 2.9% this week. At the close of U.S. stocks, spot gold was above $2,360, up nearly 0.8% during the day, up nearly 2.7% this week, and gold futures both recorded the largest weekly gain in the week of April 5, stopping a two-week losing streak.
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