What is the reason for Russia's suspension of Zelensky's arrest?
The wind is surging, and the smoke of gunpowder is everywhere. The trigger for the war in Ukraine is the arrest warrant issued by Russia for Zelensky. What people never expected was that this sensational wanted warrant was "invalidated" by Russia after only 5 days. What is the reason why Russia's attitude towards Zelensky is so capricious? Is it the result of weighing the pros and cons, or is there something else going on? Where will the entire situation in Ukraine go, the international community is once again plunged into a sea of speculation.
As soon as the wanted warrant came out, it caused a shock
On May 4, the international community was in an uproar when the website of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs published a list of "wanted persons". On this list, in addition to the current President of Ukraine Zelensky, it also includes former President Poroshenko, Ukrainian Army Commander Pavlyuk, and many Ukrainian dignitaries have "entered Romania".
In response, the Ukrainian government was outraged, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement angrily denouncing Russia's actions as "worthless" and warning the Russian side that "it will bear the consequences." Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained that this is a move of the Russian side within the framework of the "investigation of Kiev's crimes." However, it is not difficult to see that in terms of current international law, Russia's behavior is undoubtedly ultra vires and unrecognized.
As soon as the wanted warrant came out, it immediately caused an uproar around the world. Public opinion is in an uproar, and it is widely believed that this will undoubtedly exacerbate the tension and confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, and also push Russia to a dead end, which runs counter to peaceful dialogue.
Turned around and was revoked?
Just when the international community's attention to this matter gradually warmed up, something unexpected happened: the Russian side suddenly "relented" and revoked the arrest warrant for Zelensky.
On May 9, when Russian media searched the website of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, they found that all the information on Zelensky and Poroshenko had been "deleted", and their whereabouts could no longer be found.
This incident undoubtedly shocked the world. Only 5 days ago, the Russian side denounced Zelensky and issued a wanted warrant in public, why did it "personally order" to revoke it at this time? It is really incredible, and I have to wonder if there is some kind of conspiracy on the part of the Russian side.
Russian officials have avoided talking about the matter, acknowledging only vaguely that a wanted warrant had been issued. In the face of the public outcry, all parties speculated about the hidden truth:
Some analysts believe that the Russian side may have made a choice after weighing the pros and cons. In accordance with international law, Russia's issuance of a wanted warrant against the current head of state of another country is undoubtedly an extremely provocative and irresponsible move, which will put Russia in a diplomatic dilemma. Perhaps the Russian side was forced to make temporary concessions in order to avoid further deterioration of diplomatic relations. What's more, the upcoming Russia-Ukraine peace talks may also allow the Russian side to take into account the overall situation and take de-escalation measures.
There is also speculation that it may be related to Zelensky's upcoming expiration of his presidential term. Zelenskyy's term ends on May 20. Russia may not recognize his re-election extension through wartime privileges, believing that his presidency will change. Therefore, there is no point in issuing a wanted warrant for him at this time.
There is also a view that Russia and Ukraine may have reached some kind of tacit understanding in private and made concessions in secret. With the recent suspension of military operations, both sides are struggling to cope and hope to end the conflict through diplomatic means as soon as possible. Therefore, in order to avoid undermining the atmosphere of relaxation, the Russian side either took the initiative or was forced to make a conciliatory statement and suspend its entanglement with Zelensky.
The road to reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine is still full of thorns
However, even if Zelensky "gets out", Russia's arrest warrants for a number of other Ukrainian dignitaries are still valid. This undoubtedly shows that the contradictions and differences between Russia and Ukraine still exist, and the negotiation road between the two sides will be extremely difficult.
Just when the new Russian government was formed, Putin bluntly stated in his inaugural speech: "We will unswervingly continue the special military operation until the set goals are fully achieved." "It can be seen that the established policy of the Russian side to take control of the eastern regions of Ukraine and support the pro-Russian regime to come to power has not changed.
At the same time, the United States is also investing heavily in military investment, trying to drag down the Russian army in the Ukrainian region and consume its strength. Under the disruption of the two external forces, the road to reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly be particularly bumpy.
Not only that, but we also note that there are also clear differences within Russia over the Zelensky issue. Some extreme Russian "hawks" have called for Zelensky not to be soft and lax, and it is logical to arrest him. From this point of view, Russia's "concessions" may only be an expedient measure, and the result of its internal weighing of the pros and cons.
To sum up, although the Russian side has temporarily relaxed Zelensky's arrest, the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue for some time. The prospect of how the two sides will struggle to find a way out of reconciliation amid the smoke of gunfire is still uncertain and will need to be seen over time. For the eventful years, we will wait and see.
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