#文章首发挑战赛#
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Text: Xu Xu.
Edited by Xu Xu.
The Middle East has long been shrouded in the smoke of war due to geopolitical, religious and cultural entanglements. The military standoff between Iran and Israel has once again pushed the region to the forefront. The two sides have used advanced weapons such as drones and missiles, and they have been on an equal footing and engaged in-for-tat, and both have fallen into a vicious circle of offensive and counterattack. What is the reason for this escalation of the conflict? What are the considerations of the two sides? What are the implications of this conflict for the Middle East and the international landscape? Let's take a sober look at it and dig deeper.
Iran's offensive calculations
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei, is in his advanced age, and the internal power struggle is in full swing. If the pro-US faction is in power, it will inevitably abandon Iran's anti-American diplomatic line. In order to consolidate the gains of the Islamic Revolution, Khamenei had no choice but to fight back forcefully. Because if it retreats, Iran's influence and leadership in the Middle East will be lost. Without these support forces in Iraq, Syria and other regions, Iran's strategic goals and dominance cannot be discussed.
Why is it losing influence?
Rather than retreating, a resolute counterattack would be more likely to preserve Iran's image of authority among the Islamic state as a whole. If nothing is done to deal with Israel's attack, Iran's image in the Muslim world will be greatly diminished. What's more, Russia, as an important supporter of Iran in the Middle East, may also directly intervene in the pro-Iraqi armed forces in Iraq, Syria and other places if it sees it retreating.
The course of the incident and its impact
Iran struck first, using drones and missiles to attack important Israeli military installations. Israel has received massive electronic warfare support from the United States, but it has not been able to completely stop Iran's attack. A few days later, Israel retaliated with-for-tat airstrikes, striking Iran's missiles and nuclear facilities, as well as bombing targets of Iran's allies in Iraq and Syria.
"This is a war that we cannot afford to lose, and any concession by either side will have a huge strategic price." So says an expert on Middle East affairs.
Both sides are embroiled in the fighting, and the situation continues to escalate. Judging from the changes in the situation in the Middle East, Iran is trying to reverse its passive situation with the help of military means and consolidate its influence in the Middle East. Israel, for its part, must preemptively cut off Iran's nuclear weapons development program while curbing its expansion in the Middle East.
The United States and Russia wrestled in this battle
At a higher level, the crisis is actually a contest between the two major powers, the United States and Russia, in their global energy strategy. The United States wants to contain Iran's development and consolidate its control over the Middle East energy supply chain, thereby ensuring the dollar's settlement position in international energy trade. Russia, on the other hand, hopes to rely on Iran's power to gain a greater voice and influence in the Middle East and ensure its own oil export profits.
Therefore, there is no doubt that the military conflict in the Middle East has evolved into a microcosm of the global wrestling between the great powers. If it is not well controlled, the United States and Russia may not hesitate to directly intervene militarily, and then the entire Middle East will be plunged into a boundless chaos.
Prospects and countermeasures
Judging from the current situation, both sides have no way out for the time being, and the conflict will continue for some time. The road to peace in the Middle East will continue to be tested, and people will continue to be caught in the flames of war. It would be wise for Iran and Israel to avoid triggering a larger military confrontation. The United States and Russia should also strengthen communication and coordination of their interests in the region and jointly safeguard peace and stability in the Middle East.
"War should never be a way to solve problems, and the two sides should properly resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation." The UN Secretary-General urged all parties to exercise restraint.
Netizen comments
This incident quickly aroused heated discussions among netizens on the Internet, and some netizens believed that in the face of this seemingly unsolvable confrontation, both sides were justified and believed that they were forced to defend. Iran's desire to maintain its influence in the Middle East, while Israel's desire to avoid being threatened by Iranian-led Shiite allies, is actually a form of self-defense. So both sides have a certain amount of truth, but a full-scale war is undoubtedly perverse, and it is the innocent civilians who will be harmed in the end.
Some netizens believe that the competition between the United States and Russia in the Middle East is not just about competing for energy resources. More importantly, they all want to occupy the commanding heights in geopolitics and gain greater voice and dominance, which is a full-scale confrontation between major powers. As the world's energy heart, the Middle East is unlikely to achieve long-term peace and stability anytime soon, but will become a battlefield in the game of great powers.
Some netizens believe that the conflict is essentially a contest between Iran and the US-Israel alliance. As a regional power, Iran's continuous defeat will inevitably weaken its influence in the Middle East. Rather than retreating, taking the initiative to attack is more conducive to strengthening one's leadership position in the Muslim world. Israel and the United States are also struggling to maintain their strategic interests in the region, and both sides are in a dilemma. In general, peace remains a luxury and is temporarily elusive.
Summarize the gist
On the whole, this military conflict in the Middle East has risen to the level of energy strategy among major powers. Iran and Israel's own considerations, coupled with the US-Russia interest game in the region, have led to a dilemma for both sides. How to avoid the outbreak of a large-scale war and maintain the basic stability of the situation in the Middle East not only tests the wisdom of the countries concerned, but also poses a huge challenge to the mediation capacity of the international community. There is no doubt that only through sustained dialogue and consultation can the two sides gradually resolve this difficult problem of the century and alleviate the hot-spot issues in the Middle East that have lasted for decades. So, what do you think are the feasible ways to defuse the current impasse and restore peace and stability in the Middle East? Let's wait and see, and we look forward to hearing from you.