With the continuous improvement of the competitiveness and market share of China's high-value-added products in the global market in recent years, related industries and advantageous enterprises are ushering in new growth space in overseas markets. Against this backdrop, the focus of Chinese enterprises' overseas investment in the asset management industry is continuing to heat up, and industry institutions have begun to deploy relevant structural opportunities.
The growth space is promising
In view of the changes and upgrades of China's exports in recent years, Guan Huayu, founder and fund manager of 10 billion private equity Heyuan Fund, said that in recent years, the key product categories exported by the mainland have undergone great changes compared with the past, for example, in recent years, the export growth rate of China's high value-added mechanical and electrical products has been faster than that of traditional products. At the same time, many consumer goods with certain industrial attributes, such as light industrial products and daily necessities, have gained a very large market share in the European and American markets.
In terms of cross-border e-commerce, which has been booming in recent years, Guan Huayu believes that cross-border e-commerce, represented by Pinduoduo's Temu and Shein, is currently in a state of rapid development in overseas markets. In the North American market, the monthly active users of the above-mentioned cross-border e-commerce platforms are basically the same as those of eBay and Amazon; At the beginning of 2024, the number of monthly active users in the European market has even surpassed Amazon. Overall, China's huge production capacity, improving product quality and cost-effective products are "touching the hearts and minds of consumers from developed markets to emerging markets" in various fields.
Comparing Japan's historical experience, Guan Huayu further said that after Japan's economic growth slowed down in the 90s of the 20th century, most of the companies that really achieved long-term growth were companies that continued to gain more market share in the world. Among them, there are both high-end manufacturing enterprises and some consumer goods companies. Further comparison with some overseas emerging economies, whether in terms of the efficiency of local employees, or the completeness of infrastructure and industrial chains, the gap between the relevant economies and China is obvious. "From the perspective of the next three to five years, there is no need to worry about the competition." Guan Huayu said. He believes that for many Chinese industries, the "going overseas" of enterprises is changing from "optional" to "mandatory". Enterprises with excellent management will inevitably have a "many times larger" space from serving the domestic to serving the world.
Shicheng Investment believes that the highlights of Chinese enterprises going overseas in recent years can be roughly summarized into two aspects: one is that the export categories are more abundant, and the other is the improvement of scientific and technological content. The increase in the proportion of new manufacturing exports is the biggest change in the export structure in recent years. On the one hand, the relevant changes reflect the achievements of China's industrial upgrading, and also reflect the improvement of the global competitiveness of China's mid-to-high-end industries in recent years.
Highlights of related industries are frequent
According to a latest research report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the domestic economy will continue to recover in the first quarter of 2024, and A-share listed companies will show two major characteristics in the overall economic structure, namely, the technology field and the overseas field, which represent the new economic momentum.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities sorted out the industries with a cumulative growth rate of more than 50% in the first quarter of 2024 and a positive base in the same period last year, including: navigation equipment, commercial vehicles, semiconductors, other home appliances, tourism and scenic spots, hotels and restaurants, rubber, precious metals, auto parts, consumer electronics, decoration, chemical pharmaceuticals, special steel, textile manufacturing, electronic chemicals, lighting equipment, etc., most of which are related to the overseas field.
From the perspective of the "thrust of overseas performance" of A-share companies in the whole year of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the research of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities also shows that the performance of "export chain companies" is significantly superior. The agency divides the proportion of overseas revenue of A-share companies in 2023 into 5 groups according to their size, which are 80%-100%, 60%-80%, 40%-60%, 20%-40% and 0-20%, respectively. For example, in the group of A-share companies with overseas revenue accounting for 80%-100%, the growth rate of revenue and profit in the first quarter of 2024 will be 8.1% and 46.1%, respectively, while the growth rate of revenue and profit of A-share companies in the group of 0-20% overseas revenue will be below zero in the same period.
Guan Huayu further said that China's high-end manufacturing industry, represented by mechanical and electrical products, has very good performance and price advantages in the world, and the degree of acceptance is getting higher and higher; On the whole, Chinese companies are only in the middle of the game, and there is still room for significant expansion of the market before the endgame.
Aim at advantageous enterprises
Actively targeting enterprises with advantages in the overseas industrial chain has become a major feature of the investment layout of public funds and other institutions in the first quarter of this year.
According to the latest research of China Merchants Securities, the rebalancing ideas of active equity public funds in the first quarter of 2024 can be roughly summarized into three points: first, the layout of the stable dividend sector; the second is to lay out the sea chain plate; The third is to lay out the resource sector. According to the analysis of China Merchants Securities, from the perspective of fundamental investment logic, with the gradual recovery of overseas demand this year, the prosperity of the domestic export industry chain is relatively high, among which white goods, light industry, construction machinery and other overseas sectors have benefited significantly.
From the perspective of specific strategic responses and grasping structural opportunities, Guojin Securities has given three clues to relevant investment opportunities in overseas based on global competitiveness, product demand regions and financial indicators. First, screen the industries with a high proportion of overseas business + continuous growth in overseas revenue + net profit improvement, which mainly include: home appliances (white goods, home appliance parts), automobiles (auto parts, commercial vehicles), machinery and equipment (construction machinery), military industry (navigation equipment), light industry (household goods), clothing and home textiles, etc., mainly concentrated in some consumer manufacturing and high-end manufacturing. Second, select industries that are "globally competitive + have a high proportion of overseas business + can go overseas relatively smoothly". Considering that most industries in the mainland are still in the early stage of "going overseas", the related industries mainly include: electronics (components, consumer electronics), chemicals (chemicals, agrochemicals, chemical fibers, rubber, plastics, etc.), machinery and equipment (special equipment, general equipment), automobiles (passenger cars), etc. Third, industries with "global competitiveness + future growth space" mainly include new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, etc.