Hello players and friends, welcome to watch Anonymous, first preview a fact, the next two episodes of the film are informative, super high, candid sharing, but you need to use your insight to understand, to summarize, and to implement them one by one, to improve your strategic system. Only when you really arm yourself, can you really start to meet the battle, just like a water tank, only if you fill the loopholes, can you continue to fill the water! loopholes, the logic and method of protecting and filling holes, let's start! Let's review the last episode we talked about, we players themselves may have three major weaknesses, that is, weakness, the first aspect is the weakness of mentality and cognition, there are 7 typical but players are always unaware of the loopholes (in order to prevent bans, after all, sharing is red and blue, You can leave the penguin number in the comment area This side will arrange to add you, and the time to change the number can notify you as soon as possible, or directly add the blogger's three woo (4) Qi Balu (8) Ling Jiu).
The second aspect is the weakness of play and strategy, there are three common loopholes, but players are still confused. The third aspect is the weakness of discipline and execution, and there are also three loopholes that are very common, but players are still muddy!
The first weakness is mentality and cognition. This aspect contains at least 7 vulnerabilities, the first of which is the doubling method created by the fallacy of probability. The wrong logic of this loophole lies in the fact that because I lost before, so I want to increase the bet to chase it back, which is the re-chase that many players are familiar with.
Because of the loss, so to increase the casting, isn't this a mistake on a mistake? The correct action, only when the probability is more and more dominant, and it is not a subjective arbitrary addition, but according to the Kelly formula, this point we will talk about the second aspect of weakness, the 9th loophole does not know how much to play, and then further interpret the science of the code, only by seeing the wrong logic clearly, we will no longer continue to make mistakes and add mistakes, just like you understand that red-hot iron can not be touched. The second loophole, the hot hand fallacy, is that this so-called hot hand effect is more of a subjective feeling, and there is no reliable evidence to support the existence of the hot hand effect.
In the casino, don't be superstitious! You must understand that the design of the profit model of the casino is not just based on the layout of feng shui, relying on the worship of God and Buddha to make profits, but the use of probability theory and statistics of Pascal, Ferma, Huygens, Gauss, Kelly, Bernoulli and other mathematical masters. Players are superstitious about luck, casinos always believe in mathematics, and as a result, players are busy engaging in superstitions, while casinos are constantly using big data to analyze and improve the design of the game. At the same time, with almost ubiquitous high-definition monitoring equipment, with scientific and systematic precision management methods to deal with players. So, there is a game of science and superstition between the casino and the players.
This phenomenon is always laughable, and the reverse game logic of our Anonymous team is actually very simple, which is to treat others the way they do, and completely follow probability theory and statistics. Just open another casino in the opposite direction of the casino, which I fully explained in the 16th episode of the reverse game. Therefore, such a fallacy as the hot hand effect is purely random and accidental, and belongs to the fantasy of subjective assumptions, so there is no need to ignore it at all, laugh it off! Human beings are emotional animals, so they will consciously or unconsciously be affected by cognitive biases such as the hot hand effect, and a rational professional player will inevitably recognize these natural weaknesses in human nature, and then use probabilistic thinking to avoid himself.
Influenced by this irrational bias. In the casino, any rotten ghost will have a profitable moment, do you have to follow? Any Zhuge Liang will also have a wrestling moment, do you deny him because of this? Buffett also has a time to make wrong decisions, so there is no need to be superstitious, as long as you follow the guidance of probability, unswervingly in the casino, if you have to worship a god, then worship the god of probability! And the god of probability does not need you to kneel on the ground to worship, but hopes that you understand all kinds of probability calculations and logic, this is the only posture to worship him! I would like to recommend a book to everyone, the book is called High Probability Thinking, and the winners in life are the probability winners.
The author is the prototype of the movie Decisive 21 Points. Character Kevin Ma He is in the United States and an alumnus of our Anonymous Texas team member Old K. His experience was later adapted into a Hollywood blockbuster that took the world by storm. After leaving, he widely used this abacus system in investment and financial management, business decision-making, life planning and other fields, and achieved remarkable success. I don't know if you have noticed the list of this channel, you will find that there are three categories, and there are three sentences in the name of the classified album, they are, first, probability is the direction!Second, the soul is the soul, and the third is awake to win or lose! In fact, these three sentences are an important reminder of the essence of the anonymous content,
The first sentence probability is the direction! Always remember that the essence of all games is a game of probability, of course, you have to look at it with the thinking of probability, this is the general direction, if the direction is wrong, it is a tragedy that will never recover!
The second sentence is the soul of the horse, and we have talked about the low principle of making a profit before. The third sentence wakes up to the fixed profit and loss, when we talk about the corresponding loopholes later, and then talk about it, now look back at this hot hand fallacy, you will immediately understand that this is just subjective wishful thinking, there is no probability advantage at all!
The third loophole is the luck mentality! Please watch the 19th episode of cancer repeatedly, and I won't repeat it here. The fourth loophole is the greed of ignorance, we can be greedy, there is nothing wrong with greed itself, I have given you examples before, but ignorant and blind greed is a big taboo. Well, I'm going to give you a mathematical formula to calculate whether the profit target defined every time you enter the venue is reasonable, can it be achieved, is there a high probability that it can be achieved?That is, what is the probability value of the goal you want to achieve? But many players are unaware of this aspect and never pay attention to it, in fact, it is like planting a time bomb for themselves to lose money and clear the bag as soon as you enter the market. In the case of equal probabilities of the game, whoever has the greater bankroll on both sides will have a higher win rate!
Because of the difference in the size of the capital, that is, I have set a low probability high target for you, and you often don't even know how many opportunities the opponent has to make a move and how much capital is prepared, my example of your opponent is the casino, can you understand the truth? Do you remember sharing in episode 16 that our Anonymous team drew up a plan for each battle, and each defeat example
If you fully understand and understand, greed will no longer be your loophole, because from now on, you will be greedy just right, just right, and full of a high probability of profit! Seeing this, you may have to ask, which target ratio is more appropriate? Because there is also a problem of capital utilization. To give an exaggerated example, Warren Buffett lends you a billion dollars, but you only make 0.1/10,000 with it, is it too wasteful?
That is to say, the efficiency of capital utilization is too low, it does not play its due value, and it cannot even catch up with the inflation rate, and it still loses money. Although the target value of various playing strategies should be differentiated, I can still give you a general best advice, 25% should be the upper limit of your profit, that is, the maximum value, and then I will talk about the scientific setting of stop loss, under the appropriate stop loss, you can achieve a high probability of making money, but 25% is already the maximum value after adding the calculation of stop loss.
In order to ensure stable profits, you can be greedy for a long time! My biggest advice, especially for novice players, should not be difficult to set the goal at 3%, you must know that you can make a steady and continuous income, and make a small amount of money every day, which is far better than going up and down and losing a lot of money! The ancients said that it is better to have a lot of money than to make a fortune every day. In the 22nd episode of the principal, he also talked about a very important principle, less loss wins more profit, no loss is the principle of making money the fastest! Don't blindly chase huge profits, compound interest is the biggest huge profit, remember the advice of the old man Buffett on the two principles?
Because of the different playing styles and strategies, the goal setting will be correspondingly different, and there is no constant and unified target value standard. If we use a cannon, your target shouldn't be a mosquito, and if we're using a fishing net, your target shouldn't be an elephant! Our team of Anonymouss has a strategy called gluttony, and his strategic goal is to double or even triple it! This is an advanced style of play that the Anonymous team has internally evaluated, and it requires a great deal of patience, waiting for the opportunity to come like a crocodile hunting. But all in all, the final profitability of gluttonous crocodiles is not the highest, because the time cost is often ignored. So please listen to my good words, you can earn a 3%, is the beginning of your goal on the probability of dominance! The parameters of this gluttonous crocodile specific play strategy include, take profit and stop loss, and then find time to expand it in detail, you must not go to the casino to practice recklessly according to what I just said!
Remember, the essence of take profit is to control risk, take profit is the highest form of stop loss, understand? So do you still want to be blindly greedy? In particular, the principle of my take profit probability formula is derived from the inference of the bankruptcy theory proposed by the Dutch physicist, astronomer and mathematician Christian Huygens, and I am deeply grateful to Mr Christian on Higans.
The fifth loophole is irrational timidity, there are many reasons for timidity, there are cognitive, experienced, and habitual, such as being bitten by a snake for ten years and afraid of the well rope, or even being bitten by a snake for the morning and being afraid of the well rope every day. Or because of a person's personality traits, or because of physical impressions or childhood memories. There is also the fact that the money in the hand is lonely cold money and the last capital, so the loss is a high probability, because it is the last capital. When the opportunity comes, you don't dare to raise, your bet will be a mistake and chaos, and you are destined to not win! Therefore, it is very important to make up the principal required for the strategy setting in time, if you do not have enough capital, do not commit suicide, as if you are bare-handed and unarmed, just like the battlefield, no different from suicide!
The logic you have to understand is that the game is an anti-human game, dare to lose but not dare to profit is a big taboo, when you lose are a big loss, when you win but only win a small one! Even if your hit rate is high, dare to lose or dare not win, you will undoubtedly lose, because of timidity, you must not follow the first principle of profit, the best solution is to rely on the team, use people's strengths, separate the trader from the principal owner, establish a mechanism, so that the next person has no worries. In fact, it is not necessary to bet on personal courage or thinking, but on the basis of the strategic play adopted, and the professional tips of the teammates in charge of management. So it's completely out of irrational timidity, and if you understand it thoroughly, congratulations.
The sixth loophole, emotional indulgence and indulgence of emotionality, many players are very emotional in the game, scolding their mothers when they lose, anger, impatience, retaliatory impulses are messed up, leaving all the planning principles behind, completely controlled by the emotional brain, which is often the prelude to the loss being cleared. Although there are various ways to deal with this aspect, they all treat the symptoms rather than the root cause. So I'll give you an ultimate solution, which is to cultivate your ability to be awake, which can also be called awakening, awareness for a while, what kind of ability is this? Long story short, this is a kind of seeing without judgment, like a surveillance camera, looking just looking, no judgment, no emotion, and like looking in a mirror, the mirror will never say to you that you are beautiful, you are so handsome or you are so ugly, you are so ugly!
The mirror just shows that you have a leaf on your tooth, and it doesn't command you to brush your teeth, but when you see it, everything changes, for example, when you see you stabbing yourself with a knife, will you continue to stab you? Of course not, all self-destruction or self-harm happens in a state of unawareness, unawareness, and seeing is freedom. For example, what do you do when you see yourself holding a piece of red-hot iron in your hand? You don't need any method, you don't need to be reminded, when you see it, you will immediately throw it away, seeing is freedom, seeing the truth will bring you real freedom!
May you understand that awareness is very important, not only in terms of games, but in all areas of life, awareness is the root cause of the great difference between people. The method used is to meditate, practice meditation twice a day in the morning and evening, for more than 15 minutes each time, and start practicing the breathing, and our mind is like a cup of turbid water, a cup of turbid water, and the longer it is rested, the more the sediment will settle down, and the water will be clearer.
I recommend you to study, Mr. Keinka's meditation, there are free 10-day meditation centers all over the world, I have personally participated in it no less than 10 times, and I have recommended many of my teammates to go there, and to this day, 14 years! Every morning I do meditation exercises, about 45 minutes, meditation has become my personal ritual to start a new day every morning, just like some people put away their beds and fold the quilt in the morning as a sign of the beginning of the day.
The 7th loophole, insensitive stubbornness in, traditional industry, stubbornness may be a symbol of persistence and perseverance, or it may still be an advantage, but in the gaming industry, you must not be stubborn, let alone work hard!
Financial trading is completely different from entrepreneurial projects in the traditional field, you will find that the more successful entrepreneurs in the traditional field, successful people in the casino, the greater the fight they plant, in the face of probability, you are not convinced, stubborn and obstinacy, in the end will only make people want to cry without tears. Understand the truth in this, you will be naturally humble, beyond the highest level of stubbornness is selflessness, the highest state is to experience selflessness! Usually you can be very selfish, but when you sit on the table the moment you begin to feel selfless, poker face should be your best state of work.
Can you really make a living from reverse games? In addition to the revelation of our Anonymous, there is a Mr. Alexander Elder who tells you from his own experience that you can too. He used to be a psychiatrist, he didn't know anything about stocks, bonds, and the financial industry, and by chance, he also got the inspiration of a senior, he began to study the financial market eagerly, and after years of study and practical insights, he finally practiced all the skills of a successful trader and realized his dream of trading for a living. So I also recommend that you can go and see his book that is almost a must-read classic for financial practitioners, trading for a living, the author based on his experience as a psychiatrist, introduced his unique psychological control method, he said, everyone has a tendency to self-destruct, don't attribute losses to luck. Or for other reasons, you have to admit that you are weak, just as a drunk person must admit that he is an alcoholic before he can begin to recover and heal.
Therefore, every morning before starting to trade, the author will sit in front of the stock market quotation screen and say that I am a weak person, I have a tendency to self-destruction in my heart, and you can only surrender first, and then you can completely liberate yourself, and finally defeat him! His logic is quite awesome, and it is a truth that crushes the self in meditation, and stubbornness implies self-disobedience, refusal to change, and non-surrender, it will really be miserable, now do you understand the harm of stubbornness? If you have realized it, then congratulations.
We also have gaps in the second aspect of play and strategy, and the third major aspect, gaps in discipline and execution. Limited by time and length, the 8th to 13th vulnerabilities continue to the next episode, I know that many players and friends are enthusiastically looking forward to our sharing, please rest assured, this time you don't have to wait too long, because I have already written the copy, just need to broadcast and record, add video screens, add clips, and add subtitles. In fact, it takes a lot of time and effort to make a video episode, but I have already regarded video sharing as a hobby, and interacting with friends is also a great spiritual asset, so thank you for your patience and support! In the next episode, we will touch on the loopholes in strategy and execution, which is the most important thing under the theme of our content on vulnerabilities, and will also announce our anonymous unique discovery of red and blue, which is the secret of interval probability distribution.
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