Blinken is gone.
Only after the heat of public disagreement subsided, can we understand the logic behind this matter more clearly.
Perhaps to kill time, or to deliberately accentuate the conciliatory atmosphere, he bought a vinyl record of Dou Wei's "Black Dream" and Taylor's album "Midnight" at a record store in Beijing 798 before leaving.
In the middle of the night, Blinken's inner feelings about this trip to China can be seen from this.
Before Lao Bu came, many large and small media outlets were looking forward to the itinerary of this dialogue, and the direction showed two extremes.
One is an extremely pessimistic argument, believing that Lao Bu came this time for a "showdown" and an "ultimatum". One is the argument that Lao Bu is here to "confess" and "beg" this time.
When Lao Bu came, there were more voices of interpretation, such as whether the airport had a red carpet or not, all of which became indicators to judge the importance of the trip, and the scalp of people watching it was numb.
Regrettably, the above arguments are basically wrong, and any analysis that ignores the overall situation of bilateral relations and basic diplomatic etiquette and focuses on the minutiae is outrageous.
Taking the "red carpet theory" as an example, the mainland's diplomatic occasions have always been known for their rigor, and they also emphasize three principles: balance, reciprocity, and convention.
Lao Bu's treatment this time is very in line with the principle of "reciprocity", that is, how you treat me, how I treat you, it is impossible to arbitrarily raise or lower the treatment of either party. If you think about how the Trump era treated Lao Zhong, everything will be clear.
Therefore, any attempt to take a red carpet or an airport red line or a yellow line to prove that the mainland "does not want to see" Blinken will not stand up to scrutiny.
But if this "not to be seen" assumption is true, then Lao Bu will not be able to see the person he wants to see in the end. We all know the final result, and it is easy to falsify this out-of-tune conjecture.
In fact, judging from the verbal expression of the press release after the meeting, Lao Zhong's attitude was not as indifferent as everyone imagined, and the relevant expressions were also softened a lot, and there were no particularly strong words.
This is completely consistent with the mainland's demand for "stopping the decline and stabilizing".
However, there is nothing special new about Blinken's trip to China this time, and it is basically based on the standard process of maximum pressure by American politicians in recent years.
Before the visit to China, he threw out a series of empty issues to challenge China, so as to win bargaining chips, and if he could win a few more allies, the effect would be better;
During his visit to China, he attacked at the venue and exerted maximum pressure;
After his visit to China, he turned his face away from people and re-introduced a package of unfriendly measures, of course, "the responsibility lies with the Chinese side".
Obviously, Blinken's visit did not break out of this template.
For example, several empty issues created before he came, such as the old Chinese aid to the big goose, the threat to cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system, the increase in steel tariffs, and the passage of the aid bill for Taiwan......
While the Chinese side has been emphasizing that bilateral relations have "stopped falling and stabilized", the US side has appeared as aggressive as a vulture.
There are still many people who were shocked by Lao Bu's boxing method, and suddenly felt that the future was bleak, and shouted "Can't you be soft"?
But everyone should also learn some experience from the fighting methods between China and the United States in the past few years, but whenever the United States wants to impose sanctions, it has always been a clear text and resolute (such as TikTok), so why bother to go to great lengths to carry out this trip to China, is Lao Bu to brush up the mileage of airlines?
The only explanation is that this set of boxing methods is just an empty bargaining chip on the negotiation table, and if you can cheat one by one, you will reap major benefits if you deceive it, and if you can't deceive it, it will not hurt the overall situation.
Therefore, the success of this dialogue must be judged by the main demands of both sides, and all this is inseparable from the background of the dialogue.
The first background of Blinken's visit to China is this year's US election, which can be said to be the logical starting point for all the political strategies and actions of the two parties in the United States this year.
Because to serve the election, the Biden team represented by Blinken must come up with enough governance results to impress voters, or at least create a sense of America's prosperity and everyone's good days are ahead.
Therefore, the current Biden administration team is bound to seek stability in the next few months, such as the economy cannot be stopped, the supply chain cannot be broken, Russia and Ukraine cannot be defeated, the Taiwan Strait cannot be chaotic, and the relationship with Laos and China cannot collapse.
The United States has a variety of demands, the core of which is the issue of the Russia-Ukraine truce, and the Biden administration must come up with a phased summary before the election to explain it to the majority of taxpayers.
According to the general understanding of American politicians, the key winner or loser in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield lies in Laos and China, which is the so-called "aid to Russia" between Laos and China.
The United States believes that with the full support of NATO leaders, it is only a matter of time before Big Goose fails, but because Laos and China have secretly rebuilt Big Goose's military industrial system with various dual-use materials, Big Goose has regained the upper hand with a steady stream of weapons exports.
Therefore, the issue that Lao Bu is most concerned about this time is the issue of aid to Russia.
If the Chinese side is led by the nose by the Americans, it will fall into this trap of rhetoric.
As the world's largest industrial country, the mainland's industrial products are exported all over the world, and Russia is no exception. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, the mainland has repeatedly stressed that it has not provided any military equipment to Big Goose, and the "dual-use equipment" accused by the United States, such as machine tools, microelectronics and other products, are completely in the normal trade sequence.
Since he knew that it was impossible for Lao Zhong to cut off trade with the goose, why did Lao Bu do it knowing that he couldn't do it, and even took out financial sanctions to intimidate him before leaving?
This involves the essence of extreme pressure, the most ideal effect is to make the old and Chinese feel the pressure, and take the initiative to weaken the trade with the big goose; the worst effect will also make the old middle and high-level feel the attitude of the Americans, and at the same time, they can claim that the unfavorable war situation is due to the image of the old and Chinese.
And all this, the cost paid by the United States is just a fictional issue.
Looking back at Lao Bu's visit to China, both sides have deliberately set off the moment of relaxation, and it can be seen that the relations between the two countries have come out of the cold atmosphere of last year's balloon incident.
But more often than not, what we have seen is that the two sides have hardly any common language on major issues, and no breakthroughs have been made.
Just like the five-point consensus issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in addition to strengthening communication and striving to stabilize the development of relations, the concrete results are the holding of the first meeting of the AI Dialogue, and the holding of the high-level tourism dialogue next month.
At present, it is easier for the two sides to make progress only on specific issues such as people-to-people exchanges.
Whether it is Blinken's concern about aid to Russia, the Taiwan Strait, or the South China Sea, Laos and China cannot choose to make concessions on a series of issues related to the core interests of Laos and China.
At present, bilateral relations are indeed showing a twisted trend, and the relations between the two countries have indeed shown signs of stability, but on the other side of the relaxed atmosphere, the core differences between the two countries are getting farther and farther apart.
So is this conversation really as futile as many people say?
Actually, no, the meaning of dialogue lies in the dialogue itself.
As long as high-level exchanges between the two sides are not interrupted, it means that bilateral differences are still under control, and bilateral relations will not spiral indefinitely.
The real danger is the diplomatic silence of North Korea, which means that the table can be flipped at any time.
Everyone should note that the obvious difference between Lao Blinken's visit this time and the last time is that he is visiting Yu Garden and watching CBA, which is unusual for Blinken, who has always been serious.
This is not because Lao Bu wants to be a tourist special soldier, all the carefully arranged links are to send a signal: we are not incompatible rivals now, and there is a basis for dialogue.
All in all, when the world order repeats the mistake of geopolitical confrontation, this visit to China is a top-level game between the world's top teams.