It can be said that the result of 2:2 between Bayern and Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League semifinals made the situation in the second leg seem confusing, and it was not inclined at all. You must know that at this stage of the Champions League, the home and away factors are no longer decisive, and there are too many examples in history where the home performance is not as good as the away team. In the quarter-finals, they lost at home to Barcelona and won away to advance strongly. So this 2:2 made the second leg of the Bernabeu match full of uncertainties.
To be honest, the match between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich took place in the semi-finals, which is a bit regrettable. You know, Real Madrid vs. Bayern, this is a European derby, and it should be the most enjoyable to appear in the final. But in fact, Real Madrid and Bayern have never met in a Champions League final. From this point of view, no matter who can be eliminated by Real Madrid and Bayern, after the winner enters the final, the probability of winning the championship should be very large.
But is that really the case? Historically, Real Madrid and Bayern have met in the semi-finals of the Champions League many times, and they have won and lost each other. So, what is the probability of winning the championship after the winner enters the final?
In the Champions League semifinals, if Real Madrid eliminates Bayern, the probability of winning the championship is 100%. However, if Bayern eliminated Real Madrid, the probability of winning the championship is only 50% so far.
Let's look at Real Madrid first. The most familiar ones are, of course, the examples of the last decade. This is also an era of Real Madrid's Champions League victory, with a total of 5 Champions League titles in 10 years. During this period, Real Madrid met Bayern Munich twice in the semi-finals, and eventually eliminated each other and won the title. I won't mention the specific battle examples, everyone should be very clear.
Let's look at an earlier example. From the 99 to the 00 season, Real Madrid and Bayern played a total of four games in the Champions League, including two legs in the group stage, Real Madrid was crushed by Bayern 3:8, but in the semifinals, Real Madrid took revenge, won Bayern, and defeated Valencia in the final to win the championship.
In short, in the history of the Champions League, as long as Real Madrid and Bayern meet in the semi-finals, Real Madrid will eliminate each other and win the championship.
However, Bayern have not been so lucky in this regard. In the history of the Champions League, Bayern have eliminated Real Madrid more times in the semi-finals, reaching four, but only on two of them did they win the title. One was in the semi-finals of the Champions League in the 00-01 season, Bayern won by one goal over Real Madrid over both legs, and beat Valencia on penalties in the final to win the title. The other was in the semi-finals of the Champions League in the 75-76 season, where Bayern eliminated Real Madrid 2:0 at home and 1:1 away, and finally won the championship. It is worth mentioning that Bayern was in the strongest period of the history of the Champions League three consecutive championships at that time, and it was a unique existence in European football.
On the other two occasions, Bayern eliminated Real Madrid in the semi-finals, but lost to their opponents in the final. One was in the 86-87 season, when Bayern lost to Porto in the final despite passing Real Madrid in the semi-finals. Another time he was famous, in the semi-finals of the Champions League in the 11-12 season, Bayern eliminated Real Madrid over two legs, but lost to Chelsea in the final. There are two details worth mentioning, first, this final was played at the Allianz Arena, which is equivalent to Bayern losing the championship at home. Second, that season, Bayern won the Sanya king.
Okay, let's get back to the present. This season, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich met again in the semi-finals of the Champions League, with the first leg drawn and the second leg being delicate. If Real Madrid eliminated Bayern, then according to the previous historical trend, Real Madrid will almost be sure to win the championship. But if Bayern eliminates Real Madrid, it is difficult to say what the final result will be, as for the probability of Bayern winning the championship, half and half.