Hot Spotlight //
1. The person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission answered reporters' questions on the economic situation and macro policies in the first quarter, saying that a good start and a good recovery are the basic characteristics and trends of China's current economic operation. The main points of the meeting include: (1) accelerating the implementation of various established deployments and seeing practical results, (2) strengthening policy pre-research reserves and promoting the introduction of new energy vehicle enterprises in a timely manner according to the needs of the situation, (3) promoting the optimization and restructuring of new energy vehicle enterprises, (4) China will fully cancel the restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector, (5) accelerating the construction of a high-quality charging infrastructure system, and (6) formulating guidelines for the construction of a unified national market.
2. Major domestic new energy vehicle companies disclosed their sales or delivery report cards in April. Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 29,632 new cars in April, winning the monthly sales champion of China's new power brands. Li Auto delivered 25,787 vehicles in April, up 0.4% year-on-year. NIO delivered 15,620 new vehicles in April, up 134.6% year-on-year. Leapmotor delivered 15,005 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 72%. Xpeng delivered 9,393 vehicles in April, up 33% year-on-year. Xiaomi Auto delivered 7,058 units in April, and as of April 30, the number of Xiaomi SU7 orders reached 88,063 units. Nezha Automobile's April deliveries were 9,017 vehicles, down 18.6% year-on-year and up 7.8% month-on-month. ZEEKR delivered 16,089 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 99% and a month-on-month increase of 24%. VOYAH delivered 4,003 vehicles in April, up 20% year-on-year. GAC Aion's sales in April reached 28,113 units, down 31% year-on-year. SAIC-GM delivered 8,762 new energy vehicles in April. Geely Automobile sold 153267 vehicles in April, up 39% year-on-year, and pure electric vehicles sold 30,892 units, up 16% year-on-year. BYD sold 313245 new energy vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of 49%. Changan Automobile's own brand new energy vehicle sales in April were 51,700 units, a year-on-year increase of more than 129%.
3. The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as scheduled, and will maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% at its sixth consecutive meeting. According to the FOMC statement, the Fed will reduce the pace of its US debt holdings from $60 billion per month to $25 billion starting in June. In addition, it has failed to achieve its 2% inflation target further in recent months, reiterating that it is waiting for greater confidence in inflation before cutting interest rates. After the release of the statement, U.S. stocks expanded their gains, the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields deepened, and spot gold rose more than 1%.
4. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that although inflation has slowed significantly over the past year, it is still above the 2% target; there is no further progress in fighting inflation, and the US inflation data so far in 2024 has been higher than expected; the timing of interest rate cuts depends on the data, the FOMC will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis, but the next move is unlikely to be to raise interest rates; if the labor market is unexpectedly weak, it will guarantee the FOMC to cut interest rates.
Global Markets //
1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.23% at 37,903.29, the S&P 500 down 0.34% at 5,018.39, and the Nasdaq down 0.33% at 15,605.48. Johnson & Johnson rose 4.56% and Boeing rose 2.18%, leading the Dow. The Wind U.S. TAMAMA Technology Index rose 0.05%, Amazon rose 2.21%, and Tesla fell 1.79%. Most of the Chinese concept stocks rose, with NIO up 11.55% and JinkoSolar up 4.1%.
2. The British FTSE 100 index closed down 0.28% at 8121.24 points. Germany, France, Italy and other European countries are closed.
3. Major Asia-Pacific stock indexes closed down collectively, with the Nikkei 225 Index down 0.34% at 38,274.05 points, Australia's S&P 200 Index down 1.23% at 7,569.90 points, and New Zealand's S&P 50 Index down 0.75% at 11,867.58 points. South Korea, India, Singapore, and Malaysia stock markets are closed for holidays.
4. International oil prices fell across the board, with the June contract for U.S. oil falling 3.42% to $79.13 per barrel. Brent oil July contract fell 3.25% to $83.52 a barrel.
5. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, COMEX gold futures rose 1.19% to $2330.2 / ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.04% to $26.93 / ounce.
6. London base metals closed down across the board, LME copper fell 0.94% to $9,897 / ton, LME zinc fell 2.19% to $2,862 / ton, LME nickel fell 1.5% to $18,950 / ton, LME aluminum fell 0.17% to $2,587 / ton, LME tin fell 1.04% to $30,890 / ton, LME lead fell 1.98% to $2,173 / ton.
7. The main contract of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed mixed, with soybean futures up 0.58% at 1169.75 cents per bushel, corn futures up 0.73% at 450 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 0.62% at 599.5 cents per bushel.
8. U.S. Treasury yields closed down across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 7 basis points at 4.973%, the 3-year Treasury yield down 6.8 basis points at 4.816%, the 5-year Treasury yield down 6.4 basis points at 4.656%, the 10-year Treasury yield down 4.9 basis points at 4.634%, and the 30-year Treasury yield down 3.3 basis points at 4.752%.
9. At the end of New York, the dollar index fell 0.65% to 105.65, non-US currencies generally rose, the euro rose 0.42% to 1.0711, the pound rose 0.33% to 1.2532, the Australian dollar rose 0.77% to 0.6522, the dollar fell 2.07% to 154.54, the dollar fell 0.43% to 0.9155, and the offshore yuan rose 210 basis points to 7.2340 against the dollar.
Macro//
1. The business environment survey conducted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade on more than 600 foreign-funded enterprises in the first quarter found that the confidence of the surveyed foreign-funded enterprises in the Chinese market has been further improved. More than 70% of the surveyed foreign-funded enterprises are optimistic about the development prospects of the Chinese market in the next five years, an increase of about 3.8 percentage points from the previous month. More than half of the foreign companies surveyed believe that the attractiveness of the Chinese market has increased, an increase of about 2.9 percentage points from the previous month.
2. The Ministry of Finance, together with the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, recently issued 309 million yuan in agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation and water conservancy disaster relief funds to support seven provinces (autonomous regions) including Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou to do a good job in flood relief and other related work.
3. Sun Jinlong, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, issued a document saying that the ecological environment system should focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, strengthen the environmental impact assessment guarantee of major investment projects on the basis of keeping the bottom line of ecological and environmental protection, and at the same time promote the overall planning of environmental protection and fiscal, monetary, employment, industry, regional, science and technology and other policies, form a policy synergy and market-oriented mechanism to support green and low-carbon development, cultivate and expand the ecological and environmental protection industry, create a new engine for green growth, and fully serve to support the continuous improvement of economic operation.
4. China Railway Group revealed that on May 1, the national railway is expected to send 20.4 million passengers, and plans to run 12,803 passenger trains, including 1,738 additional trains.
5. The Ministry of Emergency Management and other parties have discussed and judged that the strong convection and heavy rainfall weather may increase and intensify in May, and the risk of floods and hail disasters in Jiangnan and eastern South China is high.
6. The China National Space Administration announced that the fourth phase of the lunar exploration project, the Chang'e-6 mission, is scheduled to be launched on May 3.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. According to a report released by the China Association of Listed Companies, up to now, 3,859 listed companies have announced or implemented cash dividend plans for 2023, accounting for 92% of all profitable companies, and more than 100 companies have paid cash dividends for the first time since their listing. In terms of amount, the total cash dividend amount reached 2.24 trillion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase, and the average dividend per company was 580 million yuan. 274 companies have more than 1 billion cash dividends, and 30 companies have more than 10 billion.
2. The first quarterly report of 248 companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange has been fully disclosed, and 206 companies have achieved positive net profit attributable to the parent company, accounting for about 83%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of Liancheng CNC, beiteri, Haosheng Electronics and so on has exceeded 100 million yuan;
As of now, 22 brokerages have announced the list of gold stocks, with a total of 205 recommendations, involving a total of 171 A shares, including 112 on the main board, 38 on the Growth Enterprise Market and 21 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Tsingtao Beer, CNOOC, and CATL are the most popular, and have been recommended by brokerages 4 times, 4 times, and 4 times respectively.
4. According to the data, overseas investors increased their holdings of A-shares by 6 billion yuan (about 829 million U.S. dollars) through Stock Connect in April, marking the third consecutive month of increase and setting a record for the longest monthly net buying since March 2023.
In May and April, the total net inflow of equity ETFs and cross-border ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen was about 18.6 billion yuan. At present, 3 ETFs are disclosed to be listed after the holiday, and 5 are disclosed to be issued after the holiday, with chips and oil and gas resources as the main tracking directions.
6. In 2023, 1,422 companies on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange will achieve profitability, accounting for more than eighty percent, of which 740 companies will achieve performance growth, and 166 companies will increase their net profit by more than 50%. On the other hand, the overall loss area has narrowed significantly, the amount of losses has decreased by nearly half year-on-year, and a total of 222 companies have reduced or turned around losses.
7. At present, 80 of the A-shares have maintained continuous cash distribution since their listing and have continued to pay cash for no less than 20 years. Based on the cash payout per share in the current year and the closing price at the end of the year, the average dividend yield of 18 of the 80 shares exceeded 3%, and the average cumulative increase since listing was 693.05%.
8. At the end of the annual report disclosure season, a number of listed companies have sounded the alarm of delisting due to financial failure or audit reports that cannot express opinions. As of April 30, 24 A-share companies have been locked in and delisted, of which 9 companies have completed delisting.
9. Recently, four mainland companies, including Midea Group and Cao Cao Travel, submitted IPO prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to be listed on the main board of Hong Kong. Since the beginning of this year, 15 IPO companies have been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and at least 79 companies have submitted IPO applications and are waiting for listing, including 5 companies to be issued that have passed the hearing, such as Shenghe Biotechnology and Auto Street.
10. Zhong Baoshen, chairman of LONGi Green Energy, said that the company's second-generation HPBC product will be launched on May 7, and the efficiency of the new product module will reach 24.4%, setting a new record for the mass production efficiency of solar cell modules in the world.
11. NIO announced that it will launch 38 high-speed service area supercharging stations and 200 supercharging piles in Anhui Province in a single day, and the high-speed charging and battery swapping network in Anhui Province has been opened.
Finance//
1. As of April 30, since the beginning of this year, the total number of senior executives of public funds has reached 100, including 28 chairmen, 21 general managers, 36 deputy general managers and 14 chief inspectors, involving a total of 58 fund companies.
2. The SFC warns the public to beware of entities operating under the names "CBEX Group" and "Bitget Pro" suspected of engaging in fraudulent activities related to virtual assets. At the request of the SFC, the Hong Kong Police Force has taken action to block the website. The SFC has also placed CBEX Group and Bitget Pro, as well as their respective related websites, on the alert list.
3. After the change of controlling shareholder, Chang'an Trust has changed its chairman, and it will also usher in a new president, Dong Yi. It is understood that Dong Yi has worked in the Xi'an Municipal Finance Bureau for a long time.
Housing//
1. According to CRIC statistics, the sales volume of the top 100 real estate companies from January to April was 1,091.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.8%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points.
2. According to a report released by the China Index Research Institute, in April, the average sales price of 100 cities in April was 0.27% month-on-month and 1.08% year-on-year, while second-hand housing fell 0.75% month-on-month and 5.38% year-on-year.
3. According to the data of Shenzhen real estate information platform, the number of second-hand residential transfers in Shenzhen in April was 4,171, up nearly 9% month-on-month and nearly 31% year-on-year, a new high in the past three years.
4. Nanjing Provident Fund issued a new policy to support the use of housing provident fund loans for employees in Nanjing metropolitan area to purchase houses in Nanjing, and employees in Nanjing to purchase self-occupied houses in other cities in Nanjing metropolitan area and enjoy the treatment of housing provident fund withdrawal. Applicable cities include Changzhou City, Zhenjiang City, Yangzhou City, Huai'an City, Wuhu City, Ma'anshan City, Chuzhou City, and Xuancheng City, i.e., the mutual recognition and mutual loan of provident fund in 9 cities in the Nanjing metropolitan area.
5. The Wuxi Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Jiangsu Province issued a notice stating that the provident fund will be increased to support the purchase of houses, and the working families will apply for housing provident fund loans for the purchase of a second self-occupied house in the administrative area of Wuxi City, and the down payment ratio will be adjusted from 40% to 20%. If the borrower meets the loan conditions, the maximum loan amount will be adjusted from 500,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan, and the maximum loan amount will be adjusted from 800,000 yuan to 1 million yuan if the borrower and his or her spouse meet the loan conditions.
Industry//
1. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport issued a notice on supporting and guiding the digital transformation and upgrading of highway and waterway transportation infrastructure, pointing out that from 2024, through about 3 years, about 30 demonstration areas will be supported, and a number of demonstration channels and networks with integrated lines and networks will be created, and strive to promote the digital transformation and upgrading of about 85% of busy national highways, about 25% of busy ordinary national highways and about 70% of important national high-grade waterways.
2. According to Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 17:23 on May 1, the box office of the movie "May Day" in 2024 will reach 315 million yuan on the first day, which has exceeded the first day of last year's May Day file (314.9 million yuan). "Peacekeeping Anti-riot Team", "Spending Money at the End of the Road", and "Spy Playing House Codename: White" temporarily ranked among the top three at the box office on the first day.
3. Ctrip data shows that on the first day of the holiday, the year-on-year growth rate of inbound and outbound travel orders in most first- and second-tier cities was higher than that of domestic travel orders, and the growth rate of inbound and outbound travel orders increased by 7% year-on-year. At the same time, the downward trend of the tourism market has further emerged, and the growth rate of tourism orders in most third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level destinations is higher than that of first- and second-tier cities. Hotel and ticket bookings in county areas increased by 64% and more than 200% year-on-year, respectively.
4. According to the "2024 China Urban Coffee Development Report", in 2023, the number of coffee-related enterprises in China has reached 384859, a year-on-year increase of 15.65%.
5. Meng Wanzhou, Huawei's Rotating Chairman and CFO, said that Chengdu is a long-term key development city for Huawei, and the next step is to give full play to Huawei's technological advantages in artificial intelligence and computing resources, and further deepen cooperation and exchanges with Chengdu in the fields of low-altitude economy, government services, digital energy, and rail transit.
Overseas-
1. "New Debt King" Gundlack: It seems unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates three times; the basic situation this year is that the Fed seems to cut interest rates only once, and does not think that there will be a rate cut in June; Powell hopes that the inflation data will fall without raising interest rates.
2. ECB Governing Council member Hernandez de Cos: Growing confidence in reaching the right track of 2% inflation as soon as possible; Eurozone inflation will fluctuate for the rest of 2024 before falling to the target level of 2% in mid-2025; the process of disinflation is advancing but not yet complete; the transmission of the latest cycle is also stronger than in the past; and the risks to the inflation outlook are now in a balanced state.
3. The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 192,000 in April, the largest increase since July 2023, with an expected increase of 175,000 and a previous increase of 184,000. JOLTs job vacancies in the United States in March were 8.488 million, with an expectation of 8.686 million and a previous value of 8.756 million.
4. The final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in April was 50, with an expectation of 49.9, a preliminary value of 49.9, and a final value of 51.9 in March. The ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States in April was 49.2, with an expectation of 50 and a previous value of 50.3.
5. The final value of the UK manufacturing PMI in April was 49.1, expected to be 48.7, the preliminary value was 48.7, and the final value in March was 50.3.
6. The Nationwide house price index in the United Kingdom rose 0.6% year-on-year in April, with an expected increase of 1.2% and a previous increase of 1.6%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, the largest decline since August 2023, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous decrease of 0.2%.
7. The final value of Japan's manufacturing PMI in April was 49.6, and the preliminary value was 49.9.
8. South Korea's Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism said it will focus on cultivating the console game industry in the next five years, striving to expand South Korea's share of the global console game market by 2028 to reduce its heavy dependence on online and mobile gaming platforms.
9. The World Meteorological Organization said that during the southwest monsoon season from June to September this year, rainfall in most parts of South Asia is likely to be above normal.
International Stock Market //
1. Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 0.77%, JinkoSolar up 4.1%, Tiger Brokers up 3.97%, GDS up 3.19%, iQiyi up 2.89%, Huya Live up 2.23%, Huazhu up 2.12%, and New Oriental up 1.69%; China's new energy vehicle stocks were mixed, with NIO up 11.55%, Xpeng down 0.25%, and Li Auto up 0.27%.
2. Apple announced that it will hold a special "Let's Fly" event at 10 p.m. Beijing time on May 7, when it is expected to launch new iPad hardware and accessories, including the rumored OLED version of the iPad Pro, iPad Air, Apple Pencil and Magic Keyboard.
3. Eight U.S. news organizations filed a lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft in federal court in New York, accusing the two companies of using their journalistic work to train generative artificial intelligence (AI) without permission. All of these news organizations belong to a hedge fund called Alden Global Capital.
4. Alibaba is considering building a data center in Vietnam.
5. Microsoft will support Brookfield's renewable energy project and will build an Azure data center in Thailand.
6. IKEA plans to start a new round of price cuts from May 1, which is the company's third round of price cuts in the past year.
7. Amazon's livestreaming site Twitch has launched a short-form video platform, a new service called Discovery Feed that allows viewers to scroll through short clips of these longer videos.
8. Ford Motor Company is recalling 242669 vehicles in the U.S. because the rear taillights do not illuminate.
9. 3M plans to slash its dividend payout, paying dividends at about 40% of adjusted free cash flow starting in May, ending the practice of increasing payouts every year for more than 60 years.
10. Pfizer's first-quarter revenue was $14.9 billion, compared to the consensus estimate of $13.91 billion, and the fiscal year revenue is expected to be $58.5 billion to $61.5 billion, the same as before, and full-year adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $2.15 to $2.35, compared with the previous estimate of $2.05 to $2.25. Pfizer plans to launch a direct-to-consumer drug platform.
11. New York Community Bank's credit loss allowance for the first quarter was $315 million, compared to the consensus estimate of $249.6 million, and loan loss provisions are expected to increase for the remainder of 2024.
12. Johnson & Johnson announced a restructuring plan proposed by its subsidiary, LLT, to fully and definitively resolve all ovarian cancer-related claims in current and future talc lawsuits against the Company and its affiliates in the United States, which commits the Company to pay the claimants approximately $6.475 billion in compensation of present value over a period of 25 years.
13. Yum Catering's first-quarter revenue was US$1.598 billion, net profit was US$314 million, and earnings per share were US$1.1, all of which were lower than market expectations.
14. Estee Lauder's revenue for the third quarter of fiscal 2024 was $3.94 billion, up 5% year-on-year, and earnings per share were $0.97, both exceeding expectations. However, the company expects fourth-quarter earnings per share guidance of $0.19 to $0.29, well below the consensus estimate of $0.76.
15. Barclays began to implement a layoff plan in the investment banking department.
16. Qualcomm's adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal second quarter were $2.44 versus $2.32 expected, revenue was $9.39 billion versus $9.32 billion expected, and net income was $2.326 billion versus $2.2 billion expected.
17. Mitsui & Co. announced that it will repurchase up to 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) worth of shares from May 2 to September 20, and announced a 2-for-1 stock split, effective July 1.
18. Tata Motors sold 47,983 passenger cars in April, 76,399 local sales and 29,538 commercial vehicles.
Commodity-
1. In April this year, Australia exported 6.87 million tons of various grades of coal to China, up from 6.83 million tons in March, reaching the highest level since November last year, making China once again the largest destination for Australian coal exports.
2. World Health Organization officials said that there has been an outbreak of avian influenza in dairy farms in nine states in the United States, and the H5N1 avian influenza virus may be transmitted to dairy cows in other countries through migratory birds.
3. The U.S. government has extended the permission to settle transactions related to energy transactions with some Russian banks until November 1 this year.
4. The U.S. Senate approved a ban on the import of Russian uranium, which will be handed over to President Biden for signature into law.
5. India set the benchmark import price for gold at US$751/10 gram and the benchmark import price for silver at US$886 per kilogram.
6. India set the benchmark price for crude palm oil imports at $944 per tonne.
7. EIA crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 7.265 million barrels in the week to April 26, with an expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels and a previous decrease of 6.368 million barrels.
8. According to data released by SGS, a shipping survey agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 to 30 are expected to be 1045679 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.15%.
9. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index rose 0.18% to 1,688 points, rising for two consecutive days.
Bond//
1. The U.S. Treasury Department has set a quarterly (May-July) refinancing scale of $125 billion, with $17.2 billion in new funds after repaying about $107.8 billion in Treasury bonds due on May 15, 2024. In May, the size of the 5-year TIPS bond issuance increased by $1 billion to $21 billion, and the size of the 10-year TIPS bond issuance remained unchanged at $16 billion, and in June, the size of the 10-year TIPS bond issuance increased by $1 billion to $21 billion, and in July it increased by $1 billion to $19 billion, and the size of the four-, six- and eight-week Treasury bond issuance is expected to increase in the coming days.
2. Japan will issue 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year government bonds on May 8.
Foreign exchange//
1. Japan may introduce measures to provide tax relief for companies that convert overseas profits into yen, which will apply to about 20 trillion yen ($126.74 billion) worth of "foreign direct investment income" from overseas subsidiaries of enterprises.
2. The U.S. dollar fell below the 154 mark against the yen, down 2.4% during the day, and has broken through four consecutive levels within 30 minutes, falling more than 350 points. Analysts commented that this appears to be another intervention by the Bank of Japan. This time, they chose to strike when liquidity was low. I don't know if they realize it, it makes them look very vulnerable. Of course, if you make a move at this time, you will be well rewarded. But as one of the world's major central banks, it is inappropriate to focus so much on savings.
Important Economic Agenda //
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