In early April, with the hot sales of new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of electric vehicles stood above the 50% mark for the first time - so far, the buyers of fuel vehicles have become a minority, and electric cars have become the mainstream of the market.
However, many people may not realize it: this number is just a rehearsal, a prologue!
In the next five years, if the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increases again and breaks through the barrier of 70%, then oil truck owners may face three thorny problems.
In this regard, many people must be prepared to anticipate.
The first problem is that the retention rate may fall to the bottom.
Perhaps now, many people still hold the illusion of maintaining the value of petrol cars, thinking that no matter how popular the tram is, my petrol car is at least more valuable.
But wake up, when the time comes to 2024, the oil truck has long ceased to retain its value, and to some extent, it is even lower than the tram.
This is not alarmist, relevant data show that the cars with the highest price reductions are all oil cars, and the highest reduction has even reached 40%.
The new cars of oil trucks are so miserable, so what can the value of second-hand oil cars have?
To put it bluntly, under the cruel competition of trams, the original price system of oil trucks has long been fragmented.
The situation today is that not to mention ordinary fuel vehicles, not even luxury models.
Taking BBA as an example, at the beginning of this year alone, the highest drop in its models reached 120,000 - and then talking about value preservation, I am afraid it is already a fool's dream.
The point is, with the passage of time, it is no longer just a matter of value retention, but everyone is more and more inclined to electric cars, who can these second-hand oil cars sell to?
This is not unfounded, because once the penetration rate of trams exceeds 70%, even if there are cars with good prices, not many people will take over.
After all, you can't expect those who love trams to switch to petrol cars, which is certainly unrealistic.
So, it's better to prepare early, and when the time comes, change cars as soon as possible – don't wait until the tide is gone to start regretting it!
The second problem is that maintenance and repair costs will rise.
This is not nonsense, just imagine, with the rapid popularization of new energy vehicles, the focus of the automotive industry, will be on the oil car, or on the tram?
If you think about it on your toes, you know it's the latter.
For this reason, this is bound to lead to the problem that car manufacturers, repair shops and parts suppliers may gradually reduce their investment in gasoline vehicles and put them on electric vehicles.
After all, how much money can only be made in the stock market? The real big head must be the incremental market.
As a result, with the suspension or reduction of production of many parts, the repair and maintenance costs of fuel vehicles are likely to continue to rise.
To put it bluntly, the reason why the maintenance of oil trucks is so cheap and convenient is because there are huge economies of scale.
Once the economies of scale are gone, and the costs are no longer apportionable, guess how much it will go up?
Because after attacking the shape, the relevant service providers will definitely maximize their profits in order to increase their own income - after all, if you don't repair, you don't have a choice, or rather, there are more people queuing up to repair.
The last problem is that it is becoming more and more inconvenient to use.
Nothing is isolated, just like dominoes, when a link begins to fall, there will be a series of chain reactions - the use of fuel vehicles, as is often the case.
To put it simply, it is not only a matter of repair and maintenance, but also with the increasing penetration rate of new energy, suppliers in the fuel vehicle industry will also face closure and transformation.
The reality seems to be that there is also such a trend:
Taking many supporting parts companies as an example, what used to be considered was the problem of insufficient production capacity, but now the worry has become where the order is.
What's more, the budget at the time of the project was not fulfilled by the OEMs, and their prices were still being pressed - which also made a few factories, half of their feet on the cliff.
It looks normal now, just because there are still expectations, and there are still some family backgrounds that are holding on.
Once they can't hold on, when these large and small parts manufacturers begin to go out of business or transform - their suffering will undoubtedly be passed on to consumers.
At that time, we will find out that the use of oil trucks is really too difficult: either there are no parts, or an accessory has to wait for at least 1 month, or even longer.
Because of the industrial support behind them, they have been transformed or disappeared directly.
At the same time, the number of specialized repair shops for fuel vehicles will become scarcer and scarcer due to the decline in business - based on this logic, there will be fewer and fewer gas stations - and the things that were taken for granted before will be gone.
All in all, we had the illusion that as long as there was a gasoline car on the market that could be used, we would never use an electric car.
But the reality is that it is often not so ideal.
Because when it comes to the market is full of trams, the problem faced by gasoline trucks is not just that they are backward: they can't sell if they want to, and it's difficult to repair them if they want to repair them - they don't even have many gas stations if they want to use them.
Will this happen? Referring to the change of oil carts to horse-drawn carriages, it is often found that it may be an inevitable trend.
The only obstacle is probably only time, isn't it?