China Fund News reporter Cao Wenjing
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 30 to focus on further deepening reform in an all-round way and promoting Chinese-style modernization. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work. What aspects did the Politburo meeting emphasize? What are the differences from the previous statements, and what signals are revealed? What impact will it have on the economy and financial market? In this regard, a reporter from China Fund News interviewed nearly 10 securities firms, including Guangfa, CICC, Huatai, Shenwan Hongyuan, Haitong, CITIC, Zhongtai, Huafu, and Guosheng.
A number of brokerage industry insiders said that the April Politburo meeting had a more positive evaluation of the economic performance at the beginning of the year, and the policy pointed out that "taking advantage of the momentum and avoiding tightening before and loosening" is an important tone. It is expected that the positive macro policy environment will continue, and the second quarter will mainly accelerate the implementation of stock policies. The fiscal pace or margin is accelerating, the monetary policy is prudent and tends to be accommodative, and the short-term exchange rate is still an important variable to consider. In addition, the policy measures of "digesting the stock of real estate and optimizing the incremental housing" are worth paying attention to. In terms of the capital market, the overall tone of the meeting was positive, and the follow-up A-share market repair is expected to continue.
GF Securities: "Strengthening Patient Capital" at the level of policy operation
There is room for imagination
Guo Lei, chief economist of GF Securities, understands the spirit of the Politburo meeting in the first quarter, including the following points:
First, with regard to the economy since the beginning of the year, the meeting pointed out on the one hand that "the economy has achieved a good start with the characteristics of rapid growth, structural optimization, and good quality and efficiency"; at the same time, it also stressed that "the economy still faces many challenges in sustaining a sustained rebound." Guo Lei pointed out that the policy affirmed the economic performance in the first quarter, and at the same time saw the macro and micro shortcomings and the variables of the external environment.
Second, the policy points out that "take advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening before loosening", which is an important tone. "Riding on the momentum" and "effectively consolidating and strengthening the positive momentum of economic recovery" mean that the policy tone of steady growth will still be maintained in the second quarter, which is a favorable condition for the recovery of nominal growth after the recovery of real growth.
Third, the incremental policy that is particularly noteworthy is "the policy measures to study and digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing stock in an integrated manner". Guo Lei mentioned that this marks a new stage of real estate policy transition to reasonably support the demand side and promote the balance of market supply and demand and high-quality development after the "three red lines" promote the definancialization of the real estate supply side. This will have an important impact on macro aggregate demand and will also help further reduce systemic risks.
Fourth, with regard to the stock policy, the meeting stressed the need to make efforts to effectively implement the macroeconomic policies that have been determined. The acceleration of the fiscal pace will be the focus of the second and third quarters. As for the space for interest rate cuts, theoretically, in the context of nominal GDP has begun to rise, interest rates have fallen significantly in the early stage, and the spillover effect brought about by the backward shift of the U.S. interest rate cut cycle, there should not be much space, but because the Politburo meeting once again mentioned the interest rate and reserve ratio policy, the market may have certain expectations for this in the future.
Fifth, resolving the debts of key provinces and municipalities is one of the important tasks of this year's economic work. The meeting emphasized the integration of debt and economic development, "to ensure that provinces, cities and counties with high debt risks can truly reduce debt and develop steadily", which is conducive to maintaining the total stability as much as possible in the process of controlling local debt risks.
Sixth, the meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital".
Guo Lei believes that "patient capital" is based on medium and long-term investment, and looks at China's economy and Chinese assets from a longer dimension. The development of new quality productive forces and the promotion of a modern industrial system mean that some investments have more obvious short-term "strategic" characteristics, and their "economy" must be viewed from a longer duration, which matches the characteristics of "patient capital". "Strengthening patient capital" has room for imagination in specific policy operations.
Huatai Securities: Consolidate countercyclical results in an all-round way
Resolve the stock problem
Yi Xiang, chief macroeconomist of Huatai Securities, said that the tone of the counter-cyclical adjustment policy at the Politburo meeting was still positive, saying that the policy should "take advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening before and loosening", but the relevant "details" were significantly more specific than the December meeting. Among them, after pointing out that the effective demand is insufficient and the pressure on business operations is greater, there are more specific policy "forecasts" in various fields such as finance, currency, real estate, expanding consumption, social security, and capital market construction.
The policy formulation is more specific, showing that the focus is on implementation. The statement about "coordinating the study of policy measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimizing the incremental housing" has attracted great attention, and if effectively implemented, it will be of great benefit to improve expectations.
Yi Xun pointed out that the statements related to real estate and financial bond issuance exceeded expectations the most. The real estate policy focuses on digesting the stock of real estate and optimizing the incremental housing. Compared with the framework expression of "increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing and improving the basic system related to commercial housing" at the two sessions this year, this Politburo meeting is more specific about the deployment of real estate policies. Considering the recent introduction of real estate trade-in policies in many places, it may reflect the trend of "digesting the stock of real estate" proposed by this meeting.
However, it is worth noting that the expression of digesting stocks is still in the stage of overall research, and the pace and intensity of subsequent implementation still need to be observed, especially the need to pay attention to the actual quantitative support of the fiscal and central banks.
In terms of resolving the stock problem, in addition to real estate, there are also more specific requirements at the level of debt. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is further policy support for local financing vehicles, local government cash flow and small and medium-sized banks while promoting the resolution of existing debts, so as to help them properly resolve existing debts and continue to support the healthy development of the local economy.
Haitong Securities: The policy is positive and forward-looking
Xun Yugen, chief economist of Haitong Securities, said that in terms of the tone of work, the meeting emphasized "adhering to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability" and "insisting on taking advantage of the momentum to avoid tightening before and loosening later". Considering that in the first quarter of this year, GDP actually increased by 5.3% year-on-year, Xun Yugen expects that the positive macro policy environment will continue, and the second quarter is mainly to accelerate the implementation of stock policies.
The fiscal rhythm or margin accelerates. Judging from the statement of the meeting, the "positive" policy tone of the fiscal policy continued. The scale of this year's fiscal deficit has increased compared with last year, but the resolution of local debt continues to advance. In the first quarter, the pace of issuance of new local special bonds was slow, and the net financing of urban investment bonds was low. Xun Yugen believes that the next fiscal rhythm or margin will be accelerated, and the broad fiscal will maintain the necessary expenditure intensity.
Currencies are poised and loose, but short-term exchange rates remain an important variable to consider. Xun Yugen expects that the next monetary policy will be stable and loose, and there is still room for adjustment of the medium-term policy interest rate, but considering that the interest rate gap between China and the United States has widened, the exchange rate is also an important variable that needs to be considered, and policy trade-offs are needed.
Steady growth is still the focus of this year. On the one hand, we should actively expand domestic demand. On the other hand, stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.
In terms of real estate, Xun Yugen believes that the real estate policy is still based on the bottom. For the effect of real estate policy to digest the stock and optimize the increment, the support of financial funds is the key.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to develop new productive forces in the light of local conditions. Xun Yugen believes that the field of science and technology innovation is still the direction of long-term policy support. In addition, it is necessary to actively develop venture capital and expand patient capital.
CICC: The Politburo meeting of the Central Committee set a positive tone, and the A-share repair market will continue
The research department of CICC said that the overall tone of the meeting was positive, and the recovery of the A-share market is expected to continue. Recently, the A-share market has changed from a narrow range to an upward breakthrough, and although northbound funds have fluctuated, they have recently turned into inflows, and investors' risk appetite has continued to rise. The PMI shows that the domestic fundamental environment has stabilized marginally, and combined with the more positive tone of this Politburo meeting, we believe that the worst point of expectation may be in the past.
At the same time, the research department of CICC pointed out that the overall valuation of A-shares is not high, and the historical vertical and horizontal comparison with major global markets have good investment attractiveness, in this context, we believe that the A-share recovery market since February is still expected to continue, and the market opportunities outweigh the risks.
In terms of allocation, investors have recently paid more attention to the real estate chain, combined with the statement of the real estate sector at this meeting, the relevant sectors are still expected to have a phased performance in the future, and it is necessary to grasp the allocation rhythm in combination with the implementation of policies;
Shen Wan Hongyuan: The economy is more positive
Specifically, we will focus on the four major grasps
Tu Qiang, a senior macro analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, said that in terms of setting the tone of the economic situation, the meeting was more positive than the two sessions and last year's Central Economic Work Conference, once again emphasizing that "a good start".
In terms of economic risks, the statement on the risk of domestic demand tends to ease, but more emphasis is placed on the risk of external circulation: In terms of domestic demand, the lack of effective demand is still emphasized, but the "weak social expectations" are deleted, behind which the GDP in the first quarter exceeded expectations and the recovery of small enterprises accelerated. In terms of external demand, the new emphasis was placed on the "significant increase" in the complexity of the external situation.
In terms of policy deployment, while setting a more positive tone for the economy, it also added emphasis on "avoiding tightening before and loosening later" and "insisting on taking advantage of the momentum", conveying more active policy efforts and paying specific attention to the four major grasps. After the most dazzling economic report card in the first quarter in recent years, the meeting added an emphasis on "persisting in taking advantage of the momentum, avoiding tightening before and loosening later, and effectively consolidating and enhancing the economic recovery momentum." In fact, it conveys the idea that the policy will further make efforts to ensure that the economy rebounds for the better.
The specific focus includes four aspects: "expanding domestic demand", "resolving risks", "stabilizing external circulation" and "promoting supply", and also focuses on three short-term risks: "insufficient effective demand", "more risks and hidden dangers in key areas", "significantly increasing external complexity", and supply-side issues such as accelerating the development of regional integration and new quality productivity in the medium and long term.
Zhongtai Securities:
Catalyzed by positive policy expectations, the market may stabilize and improve in the second quarter
Xu Chi, chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities Strategy Research, said that recently, under the disturbance of the performance window, the A-share market has rotated rapidly and lacks the main trend of the main line.
The Politburo meeting pointed out that the Third Plenum will be held in July this year, which increases the market's expectations for reform in the second half of the year. In the face of the internal and external pressures and adjustments of the mainland's economic growth, the domestic reform policy may be mainly oriented towards "adhering to the people-centered, enhancing domestic industrial security, and increasing scientific and technological innovation".
Xu Chi believes that in the second quarter, the market or positive policy expectations catalyzed by a stable and positive market.
In terms of investment direction: real estate restoration is expected to increase, real estate post-cycle consumption and durable goods consumption strongly related to the economy may appear to repair the market; strengthen patient capital, give full play to the investment support of private equity funds in scientific and technological innovation, and some enterprises with strong competitive advantages in science and technology innovation attributes or lead the growth style of the dominant market; focus on new quality productivity, build a modern industrial system, pay attention to the supply chain security orientation of each basic and universal industrial chain length of the central enterprise leaders, and the investment opportunities brought by the increase in demand for upstream capital goods.
CITIC Securities: From the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market
Chen Cong, chief analyst of the infrastructure and modern service industry of CITIC Securities, believes that the Politburo meeting emphasized the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the importance of digesting the stock of real estate. In short, the focus of the policy is not to rely on the fiscal to directly stimulate investment, but to digest inventory and restore market investment confidence. It is an objective reality that the problem of stock real estate needs to be digested urgently, and the digestion of stock real estate is of great significance to resolve the risks related to real estate and finance.
He also mentioned that the bottom of the policy has passed, and he is looking forward to the arrival of the bottom of the market, and is optimistic about transaction service providers, property service companies and developers with reliable asset quality. The real estate policy has already shown an attitude of actively digesting the inventory, and it is expected that specific policy measures will also be introduced to digest the stock of real estate. Although house prices continue to decline in various places, we expect prices in core cities to stabilize in the second quarter.
Chen Cong pointed out that from the perspective of the entire industry chain, asset-light leaders that actively cooperate with the government, service transaction processes, and ensure the digestion of stock are expected to benefit the most from policy trends, and high-quality space operation and property service companies. Benefiting from the high-quality development of the real estate market, real estate development enterprises that are good at providing high-quality products and have balance sheets focused on core cities may also usher in new development opportunities.
Huafu Securities: Highlighting Reform,
Emphasize implementation, quality and quantity stability
Yan Xiang, chief economist of Huafu Securities, said that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee was further implemented and refined on the basis of the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year. With regard to the policy of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand in the short term, it is proposed that it is necessary to make efforts to effectively implement the macroeconomic policies that have been determined, implement a proactive fiscal policy, and a prudent monetary policy; actively expand domestic demand, and properly implement the action plan for large-scale equipment renewal and the trade-in of consumer goods. In the direction of long-term economic development, the meeting emphasized the need to completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and strive to promote high-quality development.
Yanxiang expects that the follow-up related industrial policies and stable growth policies will be introduced one after another, but it is worth noting that as the mainland's economic development enters a new stage, our policy focus has also changed, and "relying on quality to promote quantity and stability" will be a major feature of future economic policies.
Yan Xiang also pointed out that for the capital market, the Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of further deepening reform and promoting Chinese-style modernization, and proposed to develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions, which further established the characteristics of high quality and stable quality of future economic development. Structurally, we can pay attention to high-quality enterprises with stable profitability and outstanding innovation ability.
Guosheng Securities: Promoting Reform,
Grasp the implementation, stabilize the real estate, and stabilize the confidence
Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guosheng Securities, said that the meeting was generally in line with expectations, but there were many new proposals and new requirements.
The most important signal of this meeting is to highlight reform ("put reform in a more prominent position"), and the Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in July, with the theme of "further deepening reform in an all-round way and promoting Chinese-style modernization".
The meeting's formulation of the economic situation and follow-up work ideas is basically in line with market expectations, including the economy is still worried, the general direction continues the Central Economic Work Conference and the "Two Sessions", there is no strong stimulus, and implementation is the mainstay.
Xiong Yuan paid attention to many new proposals and new requirements, in particular: expanding domestic demand and returning to the top of the main task; the new proposals "persist in taking advantage of the momentum and avoid tightening before and loosening; digesting the stock of real estate and optimizing the increase in housing; flexibly using policy tools such as interest rates and reserve ratios; ensuring that provinces, cities and counties with high debt risks can truly reduce their debts and develop steadily; and strengthen patient capital".
Xiong Yuan pointed out that in the short term, we can pay close attention to several points: the detailed deployment of real estate policies; the possibility of further RRR and interest rate cuts will increase; ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and special bonds are expected to be accelerated; and new projects in various regions are expected to be accelerated.
Overall, Xiong Yuan believes that this is a meeting to promote reform, grasp implementation, stabilize real estate, and stabilize confidence, which is conducive to boosting market sentiment.
Editor: Captain
Review: Muyu
