Yesterday's market is worth interpreting, so I'll share the review of my community.
The original text is as follows:
Today's market adjusted slightly, and a pre-holiday risk-averse mentality was vividly displayed.
Generally speaking, investors do not have a risk-off mentality.
Because investors value the fundamentals of the company, after a holiday, the fundamentals will change?
Traders and speculators are more cautious about the holidays, fearing that something unpredictable will happen during the holidays.
1. Smash the large and small disks in turn
Under the influence of risk aversion, it is the small and micro disks that release liquidity shocks in the morning.
The micro-cap index fell to -1.8% at one point.
But in the afternoon, I actually came back most of the time.
It can be seen that the risk appetite of domestic investors is improving.
In the afternoon, foreign capital smashed the market, especially at the end of the market. 8.6 billion in one day.
Looking at the stock market as a whole, we don't want speculative money to go back and forth. This is not good for the beta of the stock market.
But human nature is like this, and it is like this in the initial stage of the market.
Today, both domestic and foreign capital have run a lot, is it considered negative?
If you look at it in terms of ups and downs, you will think that it is bearish.
But who says a drop is a bad thing?
Second, the national team's intention has changed
Today's selling pressure is relatively large, but the overall market adjustment is not large.
It is mainly caused by the national team's continuous locking on the CSI 300.
However, the national team may not expect that the trading funds in foreign capital will be smashed so fiercely at the end of the game, so the response is a bit insufficient.
If you realize that the national team is locking up the chips, then do you still think that today's decline is bearish?
Obviously, this is a positive.
First, the national team is a long-term fund, and the chips in his hands are definitely more conducive to the future beta market of A-shares than in the hands of speculative funds;
Second, the national team is still active in its position close to the time line.
This is even more important.
Some time ago, I introduced to you the hole cards of the national team, which usually work hard when it falls back to the bottom card.
But today it was hard to stay so far away from the hole cards.
This suggests that there may be a big shift in the intentions of the national team.
You can YY what it is.
In addition, the CSI 300 accounted for 27.8% of the turnover of the two markets today, which is above the critical point.
In the end, the national team maintained the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,100 points (3,104 points), and the CSI 300 index above 3,600 points (3,604 points).
The graphics are so cleverly drawn that there is a feeling of fighting again after the festival.
Third, foreign capital will come back
After the close, Hong Kong stocks began to rebound.
Isn't it strange?
And the Hang Seng Index did not fall today.
In fact, the difference is that Hong Kong stocks are only closed on May Day, that's all.
What foreign investors are worried about is that the United States will release several more important data this week.
However, the impact of these on A-shares is no longer large, and the marginal pricing power is no longer in the hands of foreign investors.
The outflow of these transactional foreign capital is also quite good, and the most important thing for A-shares now is this kind of speculative funds.
Fourth, liquidity easing has started again
On April 23, the central mother knocked on bond market traders, intending to tighten liquidity.
Later, the risk appetite rose impulsively, and the 1-year certificate of deposit rate was pulled to a high of 2.24% yesterday.
In a short period of time, it has risen by 24bp, which is very rapid.
This has caused a considerable decline in the bond market.
However, today the central mother released 438 billion base currency through the open market, which gave a signal of easing, and the shock ended.
Today, the 1-year CD rate fell to an intraday low of 2.1%.
This is really exciting, and it tortures this group of bond market traders badly.
After the holiday, the pace of easing will accelerate.
After this impulse in risk appetite, we are likely to see a very rapid widening of term spreads.
Where exactly you go will determine the resilience of the stock market's valuation repair, which is a very important indicator.
On May Day, I will take the time to give you a detailed analysis.
After the central mother operates in this way, the speed of bond issuance on the financial side will also be accelerated.
Fifth, about PMI
Today's manufacturing PMI was 50.4, compared to 50.8 previously.
Out of the expansion period.
However, the stock market did not react to this data.
This is normal, because when the PMI enters the expansion zone, its marginal utility diminishes.
What does that mean?
The PMI is in an expansionary period, which means that businesses are improving, but this does not necessarily mean that residents' risk appetite has rebounded.
The rise in the PMI suggests that the income of residents will increase, but the increase in income is slow!
In the short term, the most direct way to improve residents' risk appetite is to pull up asset prices. (Stock Market & Property Market)
So don't keep an eye on the economic data every day.
The order of cause and effect should be clarified.
Now it is: the stock market is rising, risk appetite is rising, consumption is increasing, and the economy is recovering faster.
Otherwise, why is the national team working so hard now? The central bank is working so hard?
Of course, the PMI is also important, because when it is in contraction territory, it can severely suppress risk appetite.
So last month, when it moved from contraction to expansion, the stock market reacted more.
But this month is still in the expansion period, so it doesn't have such a big impact.
In other words, the impact of the PMI on the stock market is to lift some kind of restrictions, not to boost sentiment.
6. Steady happiness VS gambling
Now the national team divides the A-shares into three pools:
The first is the reservoir of wealth represented by the CSI 300,
the second is the incubation pool represented by entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship;
The third is a small micro-disc gambling pool.
The CSI 300 is characterized by low volatility and slow rise. Give people a steady sense of happiness.
Eventually, a large amount of long-term capital can be summoned for allocation.
Judging from the monthly chart, it is a continuous climb.
As for the betting pool, volatility is high.
Retail, free, and quant all love this pool.
It's a pity that it's hard to make money in this pool.
Due to serious liquidity problems, few people can carry money in their pockets.
High volatility is just a temptation.
The micro-cap index rose 10.83% in March and fell 11.87% in April.
For investors, it is important to figure out what their preferences are, what they are good at, and what pools they are suitable for.
The cost of going to the wrong pool is significant.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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