Regarding the sudden collapse of the Ukrainian army in the Ocheredine direction, after a comprehensive analysis, the following points are roughly the following:
First: the newly opened 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade failed to adapt to the intensity and fighting mode of the operation in the Acheng direction, just as the Ukrainian army in Kherson could not adapt to the battle with the Wagner Group after the Ukrainian army reinforced Suledar more than a year ago, so that it was stunned in a short period of time and then quickly collapsed;
Second: The Ukrainian army in the same theater of operations has a situation of "friendly forces in difficulty, but they do not move like a mountain", for example, the Russian army's advance on the railway line is facing the flank attack of the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian army in Beritsy, and as a result, the brigade sits back and watches the advance of the Russian army on the grounds that Aozhen is not its own defense area; the territorial defense forces, reconnaissance and assault forces, and special operations forces in the same theater have also failed to unite sincerely, and the phenomenon of "you hit me to see, you run and I slip" has appeared one after another.
Of course, there are basic prerequisites and backgrounds for the above two situations to occur at the same time.
Because the Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted for more than two years, the casualties of the Ukrainian army are very heavy, and it is difficult to rest and replenish and the ideal supply of equipment and ammunition.
In order to preserve the backbone during the battle, the Ukrainian army generally adopted a tactic like the 67th Mechanized Infantry Brigade - using the newly replenished troops to fill the line, while the officers and backbone were in a relatively safe place.
In this way, as long as the new force is constantly replenished, it will be able to maintain a certain combat effectiveness, but the disadvantage is that the cohesion of the entire brigade is insufficient, and the contradictions between the new and old soldiers are very great, and the situation of mutual distrust between fraternal units is becoming more and more serious.
In particular, the units of the Ukrainian army in the Avadiivka theater of operations, which have the characteristics of a platter.
Judging from the Ukrainian troops around Ochretyne that can be confirmed so far, the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade was transferred from the Zaporozhye Kuban battlefield, the 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade was transferred from the Kupyansk battlefield, the 23rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade was transferred from the Veliky Novosilka Battlefield, and the 100th Mechanized Infantry Brigade came later to plug the leak.
The formation of the armed forces also comes from different sources, some are new armies, some are territorial troops, and some are independent troops, and even the new armies are organized in different ways and from different sources, and there are still situations in which they look down on each other.
For example, the 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade of the Ukrainian Army considers itself a U.S. Armament Brigade, but it looks down on the 115th Mechanized Infantry Brigade and other units, believing that too many troops and resources should not be given to this new unit.
However, the 47th Brigade itself is actually a new army, and the 115th Brigade, which was formed a week after the start of the war, is really not qualified to compete with friendly forces on this point of new troops.
With such a fuss, how can there be no chaos on the front line?
But the mess is out, what should I do?
The difficult problem facing the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, is quite a headache.
When the Russian army had already attacked Ochrediene, why did the Ukrainian army allow the Russian army to break through? In addition to the problems mentioned above, it actually explains another situation: The Ukrainian army no longer has any reserves that can be used immediately.
Originally, when the defense line was complete, the Ukrainian army threw a full brigade here in Aozhen, which could at least hold it for a while;
But the town of Aozhen was suddenly lost, and the entire fortress area with the town of Ao as the core was eaten by the Russian army, and there was no higher position within twenty or thirty kilometers of the town of Aozhen as the core.
Originally, the Ukrainian army only needed to hold a few kilometers of defense line to ensure the integrity and stability of the entire defense area system, but the Russian army's "Ochretine Flower" came out, and several brigades of Russian troops squatted on the high ground, and it could attack all around at any time, how to do the defense line of the Ukrainian army?
Around the Aozhen Heights, another line of defense?
You can't get down after just going around for dozens of kilometers, and many of the key defensive lines have to be rearranged, because they didn't expect Aozhen to fall in such a short period of time.
Then the Ukrainian army needs to have at least several brigades to plug the gap, and the resources consumed will be more, and the key Russian army will give the Ukrainian army another two months to build a stable defense line?
If the actions of the Russian army have not stopped, the Ukrainian army's defense line will have no way to start, and it can only scatter the soldiers, so how can we talk about the defense system?
But what kind of area is this?
Ochheredine is only 30 kilometers away from the logistics base of the Ukrainian army in the entire Donbass - the Red Army City, of course, the current Russian army does not have the conditions to directly attack the Red Army City, but 13 kilometers northwest of the Austrian town is the T0504 road.
T0504 highway familiar, right?
This highway runs from the Red Army City - Konstantinovka - south of Chasov Yar - Ivanivsk - Artemsk - it is an important transport supply line for the current Ukrainian army in the direction of Chasov Yar.
One Avadiivka theater of operations, one Chasov Yar theater, due to the key breakthrough of the former, can be connected.
Therefore, after a comprehensive analysis, we believe that if the Ukrainian army allows the spread and development of the "Flower of Ochredine", the defensive price it will pay will be strategic.
Therefore, the best strategy of the Ukrainian army should be to draw fresh forces as much as possible to counterattack the Russian army in Ocheredine.
Austria can only be stabilized if it is in the hands of the Ukrainian army, and if it is in the hands of the Russian army, then the Ukrainian army's defense of Donbass will really not be able to be carried out.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, recently admitted that the Russian army has made some tactical progress on the Avadiivka front, but the so-called non-recognition of the tactical progress of the Russian army will bring operational advantages, just to give everyone peace of mind.
Anyone with a modicum of military common sense, looking at the battlefield situation on Ocheredine's side, who doesn't understand something?
Syrsky is apparently shrinking his positions in Bertitsy and Shemenivka (yellow box) at the moment in order to stabilize the defense on the Novopokrovsk-Umansk-Netelovye line (white box).
In addition, Syrsky admitted that the Ukrainian army is likely to launch a tactical counteroffensive in the direction of Ochredine by integrating the troops withdrawn from the front line and increasing the current supply of US aid.
Of course, the Russian army in the central cluster has strong subjective initiative, and it may not give the Ukrainian army a chance to stabilize its position and launch a counteroffensive.