Note: This analysis article only represents Cui Dongshu's personal views, if you have any objections, please leave a message. In 2024, the retail sales of China's auto market will achieve the expected good start, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to March 2024 will increase by 34% to 1.77 million units. In 2024, the domestic new energy pattern will change drastically, the head effect will become increasingly obvious, and the high-end will be relatively strong. New forces such as Weilai and Ideal are generally good, and traditional car companies such as Wuling, Geely, and Changan have a strong trend in new energy in March. 1. Wholesale of new energy vehicles is strong in March 2024
In March 2024, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 810,000 units, rebounding to a record high in the month.
In March, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 810,000 units, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 31%, which was still relatively high compared with the growth rate of 28% from January to February, and the overall growth rate was moderate.
Since 2023, due to the decline in raw materials such as lithium and nickel, the price of power batteries has declined, and the low sales volume in February is conducive to the company's production reduction at the beginning of the year, removing historical inventory, and achieving a strong increase in sales in March after the Spring Festival. 2. The retail sales of new energy vehicles will grow strongly in March 2024
In March 2024, the NEV market retailed 710,000 units, up 30% year-on-year and 83% month-on-month. In March 2024, it increased by 40,000 units compared to January, and overall retail sales were in a state of slight recovery.
Due to the large decline in February, there were factors of suppressed demand release in March, and some wait-and-see groups began to buy cars.
In 2023, the cumulative retail sales will be 7.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. From January to March 2024, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 34% to 1.77 million units, which is relatively stable, higher than the 23% growth rate in 2023, which is a very good performance.
3. Exports of new energy vehicles (NEVs) will grow at a strong rate in March 2024
NEV exports in March 2024 totaled 120,000 units, up 71% y/y and 53% m/m. The sluggish export in February should be affected by factors such as shipping, and independent exports increased significantly month-on-month in March.
Due to the continuous improvement of overseas recognition and the improvement of the service network, the self-owned brand pure electric is mainly for the markets of developed countries, and there is currently a phenomenon of encircling China's new energy.
From January to March 2024, a total of 300,000 units were exported, an increase of 33% year-on-year. Judging from the recent monitoring of retail sales data in overseas markets of independent exports, the performance of domestic brands in Europe is average. In addition to the beautiful performance of traditional export car companies, the export of new forces has also gradually started recently, and data from overseas markets have begun to appear, and the export performance of South America and other countries has also been continuously improving, and the export growth of independent plug-in hybrid has begun. The low base of exports in March 2023 has boosted exports, and the export of new energy vehicles is expected to remain high in the coming months.
4. Characteristics of new energy passenger vehicles
From 2018 to 2019, the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles in the rental and leasing category gradually increased, and then the proportion of pure electric rental and leasing from 2020 continued to decline. In March, rental rose, private consumption was stable, and the proportion of demand for unit cars decreased. In 2023, the proportion of rental leases will be 11%, and in 2024, it will drop to 9%.
Recently, the proportion of plug-in hybrid in the private market has also continued to increase, and the demand for plug-in hybrid for rental and leasing has continued to shrink, and pure electric vehicles are still the best choice for rental. In March, the proportion of pure electric rental leases rebounded significantly.
5. The performance of the regional market is gradually improving
In the past few years, the demand for new energy passenger vehicles has been strong mainly in the purchase restriction megacities, and it has continued to decline recently. Excluding the purchase restrictions in megacities, the proportion of pure electric new energy passenger vehicles in total sales in megacities in 2024 will decrease by 4 percentage points compared with 2023, which also shows that the sales of new energy vehicles in large cities are gradually slowing down, and the size of the vehicle and basic population has constraints on demand. Due to the large population base and poor public transportation, the market demand in medium-sized cities has been strong in the near future, and new energy in the county and township markets has been gradually launched.
6. The performance of the new energy city market is gradually improving
The month-on-month decline in NEVs in March was mainly due to the decline in pure electric vehicle sales in Shanghai, which is about to be phased out, by nearly 10,000 units, resulting in poor overall performance. The main growth of new energy vehicles in March was in cities such as Shenzhen and Beijing. The decline is in Shanghai, Yangzhou, Xishuangbanna and other market areas.
In 2024, new energy will still grow significantly compared with the same period in 2023, and Suzhou, Chengdu, Guangzhou and other cities will grow relatively rapidly, forming the core driving force of increment.
7. Regional differences in demand for BEVs
The gradual launch of the pure electric private household market has promoted the development of the industry. In the past two years, although the demand in large cities with purchase restrictions has been strong, the proportion has gradually declined, the proportion of large and medium-sized cities with restricted traffic has continued to rise, and the private consumption market in small cities and county and township markets has rebounded slowly.
The performance of the pure electric vehicle leasing market is gradually declining, with the proportion of rental leasing in pure electric vehicle sales peaking in 2019, followed by a decline in the proportion of rental leasing in 2020, and a decline to about 15% in 2021-2023, and an increase to 16% in March 2024, of which the proportion of mega cities has increased.
Judging from the performance of the main models, it also reflects the sluggish demand for the main models in large and medium-sized cities, especially in March, compared with the same period in the same period, the increase is mainly due to the obvious improvement in small cities and county and township markets. From Tesla's point of view, the main area in March extended to the small and medium-sized city market compared with the same period, and the growth of the pure electric market in mega cities was relatively sluggish.
8. Regional demand for plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles
The private consumption market of plug-in hybrid models has great potential to increase, and although Shanghai has reduced the volume, there is good demand in small and medium-sized cities.
The share of plug-in hybrid vehicles per unit of use and rental continues to shrink. The main demand for plug-in hybrid rental models is in megacities and large urban markets, and this year's mega city plug-in hybrid rental has shrunk significantly.
In recent years, the proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles in non-restricted cities has gradually increased, and BYD and Geely are relatively strong. Kaizen A05 and Lynk & Co 08 and Galaxy L7 performed strongly in March, outperforming some of the old star models.
In March, the plug-in mix strengthened, large and medium-sized non-restricted cities were still the main force of plug-in mixing, the proportion of demand in restricted cities declined, and the plug-in mix in the county and township markets formed a good increment.
The dependence of cities with purchase restrictions such as BYD Han has declined, and the performance of low-price plug-in hybrids such as Qin and Song has been stronger in small and medium-sized cities and county and township markets. 9. Regional demand for increased range passenger vehicles
The main users of extended-range passenger cars are individuals and units, of which the proportion of unit users is much higher than that of plug-in hybrid users, reflecting that plug-in hybrid models are not as suitable for unit users as extended range.
The main market of Zengcheng is still large and medium-sized cities, but with the growth of Wenjie and Deep Blue, the market of small cities and counties and townships has gradually risen.
10. Regional penetration rate of pure electric passenger vehicles - March
At present, the proportion of pure electric vehicles in cities with purchase restrictions is stable, rising from 18% in March 2021 to 34% in 2024.
The proportion of pure electric vehicles sold in large, medium-sized and small cities in non-restricted cities is basically the same. This year, the penetration rate of medium-sized cities rose to 27% in March, and the decline in the penetration rate of county and township markets was also quite abnormal.
The market penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles in all parts of the country continues to grow, especially in mega cities, where the plug-in hybrid vehicle market accounted for 19% in March this year, and in the small and medium-sized city market, the proportion of the plug-in hybrid market also shows the characteristics of continuous increase, and the gap between various cities in the plug-in hybrid penetration rate is relatively narrow.
In Shanghai, due to the pull of the plug-in license policy, plug-in and mixed accounted for 8% in March and rebounded by 5% in March.
11. Enterprises in each regional market are highly differentiated
The performance of the rental market in different regions is relatively different. The stronger rental markets in March this year were Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, etc. Among them, the performance of various manufacturers in the rental market in various places is also quite different, and the share of local products in the local rental market in some regions is not necessarily very high.
The characteristics of the private pure electric vehicle market are relatively distinct, and the trend of high-end is extremely obvious. BYD performed well, and developed regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang were basically the first.
The performance of new car-making forces such as NIO and Xpeng Motors is very good, while traditional car-making companies are also outstanding in the private EV market.
BYD and Li Auto in the private plug-in hybrid market performed strongly, especially BYD's main cities took the lead in an all-round way, Cialis Automobile ranked second in an all-round way, and Li Auto retreated to third. Chang'an and Geely are also stronger.
Since the plug-in hybrid market other than BYD is mainly a program, and the private plug-in hybrid performance of joint venture car companies is relatively weak, it is of great significance for Great Wall and Geely to gradually break through the plug-in hybrid.
12. Beijing market trend
The new energy vehicle market in Beijing will be relatively stable in 2024, with sales reaching 21,000 units in March 2024, a high level in the same period of the previous year, and the license plate index is fully digested.
Since the relatively tight new energy vehicle indicators in 2018, the new energy vehicle market in Beijing in 2022 has a contrast with the national trend, and the growth rate in March is better.
Beijing's new energy sales from June to December last year were better, considering the lack of indicators, and Tesla's supply of fewer cars, Beijing's performance in March was also relatively strong. Beijing's new energy vehicle grade is generally pragmatic, which is also a good reflection of household demand.
13. Shanghai new energy market trend
The new policy trend of the Shanghai market is in obvious contrast with the Beijing market, and the trend has been extremely stable since 2019. In December 2020, there was a year-end rush to buy, and in March 2024, sales fell significantly, and the growth of new energy vehicles in Shanghai showed the characteristics of slowing down.
In March 2024, Shanghai's new energy vehicle market sales reached 20,000 units, down 39% from 32,000 in March last year.
14. Market trends of new energy passenger vehicles in restricted cities
The performance of new energy vehicles in cities with restricted traffic is relatively strong, reaching 176,000 units in March 2024, a low level of 25% year-on-year.
The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 will reach the level of 439,000 units, and the growth of restricted cities in 2024 reflects the continuous growth of demand for new energy vehicles in restricted cities.
15. The market trend of new energy passenger vehicles in areas with no purchase restrictions or travel restrictions
Non-dual-limit cities, that is, areas where we have no restrictions on the purchase and driving of fuel vehicles. Since there is no restriction on the purchase and driving of traditional vehicles, the demand for new energy vehicles in these cities is the real market demand. At present, non-dual-limit cities are also growing relatively rapidly, such cities are relatively wide in the country, and the sales of new energy vehicles are currently showing a relatively high level.
In 2022, the cumulative number of non-dual-limited cities will reach 2.73 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96%, showing strong growth characteristics. In 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles in non-dual-limited cities will be 4.06 million units, and the sales of 1.02 million units from January to March 2024 will be very strong, with a growth rate of 53%.
Attached: A collection of recent information
*National Charging Pile Market Analysis - March 2024
*The national passenger car market had an inventory of 3.33 million units at the end of March and an inventory of 57 days*The revenue of the automotive industry from January to March 2024 was 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%, the profit was 104 billion yuan, an increase of 32%, and the profit margin was 4.6%*The release of the implementation rules for the car trade-in subsidy is a major positive*[Passenger Federation Branch Forum] Pickup market analysis in March 2024*Beijing International Auto Show-China's automobile will definitely develop globally*Auto Market Scan-Issue 15, 2024 (04/15-04/21)* China's auto imports fell 4% from January to March 2024 at 156,000 units*Analysis of China's automobile export market from January to March 2024*Analysis of lithium battery market for new energy vehicles-March 2024*Characteristics of the operation of the domestic market of commercial vehicles in China—March 2024*Model trend of passenger car segments in March 2024*Wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles in China in March 2024 was 810,000, with a penetration rate of 37%*Auto Market Scanning-Issue 14, 2024 (April 07-April 14)* From January to March 2024, automobile production increased by 7%, consumption increased by 4%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 2.08 million by 31%, and the penetration rate was 34 square meters. *Analysis of the operating characteristics of the national passenger car market in March*【Monthly analysis】Analysis of the national passenger car market in March 2024*Comparative analysis of the performance of Chinese and American auto dealers in 2023*Comparative tracking of annual report indicators of overseas listed companies of new energy
*In 2023, the double credit of fuel and new energy will skyrocket
*Discussion on the Classification and Calculation of New Passenger Cars - March * 2024 China Automobile Exports Overseas Part of Data Tracking - February * Auto Market Scanning - December 2024 (March 25 - March 31)
*[New Energy] March 2024 New Energy Passenger Vehicle Manufacturers Wholesale Sales Update
*China's share of the world's new energy vehicles in January-February 2024 is 62%
*China's share of the world's automobiles from January to February 2024 is 32%*1.69 million used cars in January 2024, up 35%
* Trade-in to reduce logistics costs - promote the strong growth of gas heavy trucks
*Comparative analysis of the trend of the national residential property market and the auto market*Analysis of the national rental online car-hailing market - 2023
*The price war in the national passenger car market will continue to be fierce in 2024
*We should never be pessimistic about new energy vehicles*The brand of the Passenger Association will continue to be brilliant in the past 30 years*In 2023, China's automobiles have achieved remarkable results, and the potential is even greater
*Chinese automobiles lead the high-quality growth of China's exports
*Ministry of Public Security Licensing and Driver Data Analysis - January-December 2023
*Analysis of the first batch of new energy vehicles in 2024
*Tracking of the recall status of the national automobile market from January to December 2023*Analysis of automobile ownership and scrapping exports