Daily Telegraph article by David Akes on 29 April 2024
A strange new thing recently flew out of the belly of a heavy bomber of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force.
It could be a supersonic unmanned reconnaissance aircraft - specifically designed to hunt US Navy aircraft carriers in the vast Pacific Ocean. It could also be a faster "hypersonic" vehicle. Judging by the single blurry image circulating on social media, it's hard to say what exactly. What we can be sure of is what the Chinese military is up to. Whatever it is, it's bad news for the United States and the free world as a whole.
The photograph depicts a Xi'an H-6 medium bomber flying high above the ground. From the photographer's point of view, the bomber flew so high that it was just a blur with wings. Also vague is the load under the bomber fuselage.
This fuzzy payload is dark in color, shaped like an arrow, and is about 33 feet long. It gives the overall impression of a drone. But what kind of drone is it, exactly?
It is reported that the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force is developing at least two high-speed unmanned aerial vehicles launched by bombers. These two UAVs roughly coincide with the basic shape of the object under the H-6 in the photo.
One is AVIC WZ-8. The supersonic drone made its public debut at a rehearsal for a military parade in Beijing in 2019. The drone's narrow fuselage and wings make it ideal for fast supersonic flight. The photo strongly suggests that the WZ-8 is a reconnaissance drone. The rocket engine of such a drone is not suitable for take-off from a conventional runway, but needs to be launched in the air.
The Chinese media echoed this impression. According to the South China Morning Post, the WZ-8 "is expected to play a key role in the event of a conflict with a U.S. carrier strike group in the South China Sea or the Western Pacific."
If China makes good on its decades-old threat to launch an attack across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait, the U.S. aircraft carrier battle group will lead allies in intervening in the Taiwan Strait. Stopping these aircraft carriers has become one of the PLA's top priorities.
The Chinese military deploys a range of weapons designed specifically for attacking aircraft carriers: in particular, cruise and ballistic missiles. However, the missile's performance depends on its targeting, and in the vast Pacific Ocean, even a behemoth like a 1,000-foot-long aircraft carrier is difficult to detect.
Satellites equipped with cameras may be able to detect the carrier, but only when the satellite passes through the sea where the carrier is located. The orbits of most satellites only allow them to monitor a small area beneath the Earth.
Drones can help fill the surveillance gap. However, UAVs, unlike satellites, are vulnerable to interception by aircraft carriers and frigates. During the development of the supersonic WZ-8, the Chinese bet on high speed, perhaps even several times the speed of sound, and the drone may have the opportunity to penetrate the carrier's defenses and pinpoint the position of the carrier for the rocket crew.
The PLA leadership in Beijing seems to be confident in the basic design of the WZ-8. According to a leaked U.S. intelligence report, this may be why the PLA Air Force has rushed to deploy the drone to the front line of at least one regiment in Lu'an, eastern China.
It is possible that the H-6 in this sudden photo carried a WZ-8 for further tests, or as an exercise in combat operations. However, it is also possible that this bomber was not carrying the WZ-8 at all. The Warzone correspondent Joseph Trevisik, citing aviation expert Andreas Ruprecht, said that the payload in the photo was too large to be a WZ-8.
Be skeptical. According to reasonable assessments, the rarely seen WZ-8 is about 37 feet long. The length of the H-6 is 114 feet, while the load in the photo is up to a quarter or a third of its length. That could mean 37 feet.
Trevisick speculated that the bomber's payload might not be the WZ-8, but the MD-22, a hypersonic drone being developed by the Guangdong Institute of Aerodynamics that could be used for military purposes. Hypersonic vehicles can fly at least five times the speed of sound, while also being able to maneuver.
We know almost nothing about the MD-22, except that it was very fast, about 35 feet long. If what is under the H-6 is the MD-22, then the MD-22 looks a lot like the WZ-8.
All of these speculations may be the difference that makes no difference. The MD-22 in real combat will likely play an apparently the same role as the WZ-8 in real combat: penetrate the US air defense network to determine the location of America's most valuable warship, the aircraft carrier.
China is testing or training some kind of extremely fast reconnaissance drone - WZ-8 or MD-22. It reminds us how serious they are about hunting down American aircraft carriers. It also reminds the Americans how important it is for their carriers to defend against high-speed drones.