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April is coming to an end, from the pig market feedback, this month's pig price to weak and stable shocks, April 1 outside the three yuan pig price in 15.16 yuan / kg, the end of the month pig price maintained at 14.74 yuan / kg, the month pig price fell 2.77%, of which, April 8 pig price reached a high point of 15.25 yuan / kg in the month, after the Qingming holiday, pig prices to shock downward, the performance of the market is more obvious!
It is reported that previously, the institution is generally bullish on the market at the end of the month, after all, affected by the May Day holiday, domestic catering and tourism consumption demand or will improve significantly, institutions generally believe that at the end of the month, the group pig enterprises have a shrinkage of the sentiment, slaughtering enterprises have the expectation of centralized stocking before the holiday, but, from the market feedback, the end of the month pig prices "peak season is not prosperous", the price continued the trend of low shocks, and the reasons for supporting pig prices are difficult to rise smoothly has been found, the specific analysis is as follows:
It is understood that at the beginning of this month, the official release of the first quarter of the sow inventory data, the sow inventory was reduced to 39.92 million, a decrease of 500,000 compared with February, the cumulative reduction of 9.07%, however, the official data and the institutional data slightly diverged, agency data show that in March, the designated 123 scale pig enterprises sow inventory increased by 0.11% month-on-month, the market for the pig price prospects are more cautious. According to the changes in the sow herd, theoretically, there is little change in the slaughter of suitable weight pigs in April ~ May!
However, due to the rise in pig prices after the year, the second fattening entry is positive, the breeding end of the low standard pigs more pressure fence wait-and-see, the second fattening into the slaughter cycle, the market for the short-term pig price prospects cautious sentiment stronger, especially, in the north and south of the country, the temperature continues to rise, pork consumption demand deteriorates, the market for fat pork just demand is insufficient, the price advantage of fat pigs has deteriorated, the standard fertilizer price spread has gradually narrowed, and there is an obvious inverted price difference in many places, which limits the sentiment of the breeding end at the end of the month, which drives the enthusiasm of the market to sell pigs!
A few days ago, by the risk of fat pig pressure fence, retail investors, two breeders and group farms in the slaughter of large pigs positively, the average weight of pigs slaughtered rose to about 124 kg, especially, many places in the south affected by extreme rainfall, the group pig slaughter rhythm is slow, the market has a certain increase in the phenomenon of selling pigs, pig farm disease risk pressure is higher!
However, on the demand side, at the end of the month, the consumption is difficult to cash, the week before the festival in previous years, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has increased significantly, however, this year is close to May Day, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is only a slight increase, from the analysis of institutional data, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises yesterday was 28.81% About, compared with the previous day, it rose by only 0.28 percentage points, and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was low, which also showed that the downstream market was more cautious about the demand for stocking!
On the one hand, pork consumption is in the cyclical off-season, the temperature is high, the market is cautious about the rebound of pork sales, the market stock demand is poor, the downstream market is relatively deserted in the purchase and sale of white strips, and traders lack the enthusiasm for centralized procurement;
On the other hand, the domestic frozen pork inventory level remains high, and the storage capacity of frozen pork is about 24% at this stage.
Therefore, due to the poor follow-up of pre-holiday demand, and the relatively positive slaughter at the breeding end, under the situation of double increase in supply and demand in the phased market, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises in purchasing is general, and the mentality of raising prices and collecting pigs is not as expected!
Nowadays, by the festive atmosphere, pig prices are weak and stable, during the festival, the mainstream factories have stopped slaughtering, sporadic local slaughterhouses or a slight increase in the performance of starting, pig prices or will continue to be stable in the strong trend!
On the one hand, the market bearish sentiment in May is higher, in particular, the mainstream 2405 contract quotation of live pigs fell, the latest data shows that the price of live pigs 2405 contract fell to 14495 yuan / ton, the outlook for pig prices in May is under pressure, and the market sentiment is poor!
On the other hand, due to the further rise in temperature, pork consumption has further deteriorated, the risk of breeding end pressure pig has surged, the market has the risk of "slaughtering cattle", and the pig slaughter after the holiday may be relatively positive, and the big pig has concentrated selling pressure, which is further bearish on the prospect of pigs!
Therefore, the fall in pig prices after the holiday or will be a high probability of events, I personally believe that pig prices or will fall to about 14.2 ~ 14.4 yuan / kg, some areas of low-price pig sources or will fall below 7 yuan / kg again, however, this pig price decline is a flash in the pan, into mid to late May, with the market bullish outlook mentality to become stronger, two breeding confidence or will be improved, pig prices or will enter the stage of rising month by month!
At the end of the month, the pig price is "not prosperous in the peak season", the reason behind it has been found, and after the holiday, there is a "back to the horse gun"?