Family car market: A segmented car market made up of married car buyers
From the 80s and 90s of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, China's passenger car market was dominated by executive cars and business cars, and by the beginning of 2024, it has fully entered a new era dominated by the family car market. In the past three or four years, Lavida, Sylphy, Haval H6, etc., which were once the representative models of the family car market, have suffered a collapse in terminal sales and market prices, and mainstream brands such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and Buick have fallen into a difficult dilemma. A series of abnormal phenomena in China's family car market have made many car companies anxious like ants on a hot pot.
The research data of the 2024 version of the user segmentation topic selection of the Bitcar Research Institute is mainly based on online research, with a total sample size of more than 60,000 in 2023, and the offline survey sample size in 2023 will exceed 10,000 based on the offline research data of Bitcar Big Data and the offline research data of the BitCar Research Institute.
In 2023, China's family car market will account for 78.44% of the market, surpassing that of the United States
In 2014~2023, although the market share of China's family car market fell from 89% to 78.44%, a decrease of more than ten points, it is still the absolute main body of China's car market. In the past five or six years, although the terminal sales of China's family car market have declined, from 21.03 million units at the peak in 2017 to 16.95 million units in 2023, it still exceeds the 15.6 million units in the United States, which can be called the world's "largest segmented car market". China's family car market plays an important role in both the domestic and global auto market, and if car companies can dominate the Chinese family car market, they can often achieve the effect of killing two birds with one stone in the Chinese auto market and the global auto market. For more than a decade, this scene has been vividly interpreted by Volkswagen;
Due to the addition of the word "family", the concept of the family car market is sharpened, which is convenient for refining the value points of industry analysis, and the market is large enough, so it is convenient to study the evolution of the pattern of the two major car markets in China and the world.
The top 20 brands in terminal sales in 2023 are all dominated by the family car market, and the success or failure of most car companies in China can generally find the answer from the family car market
In 2023, the top 20 auto brands in China will all be dominated by the family car market, with an overall household penetration rate of around 80%, even the lowest Tesla, with a family penetration rate of nearly 70%, and the highest is Li Auto, with a family penetration rate of more than 90% in one fell swoop;
As long as the Chinese family car market sneezes, the mainstream car companies will tremble, the study of the Chinese family car market is a topic that any mainstream car company can not bypass, the changes in the Chinese car market in the past ten years, may be able to find the answer in the family car market: in the past six or seven years, Suzuki, Fiat, Renault, Mitsubishi and other overseas car companies have accelerated their withdrawal from the Chinese car market, is it related to the inability to effectively compete in the Chinese family car market? In the past four or five years, Volkswagen, Nissan, Buick, Is the difficulty of Honda and other big brands related to the violent impact from China's family car market? In the past two or three years, has the strong rise of a few brands, such as Ideal, Wenjie, and BYD, been related to the full benefit of China's family car market......
In the past decade, the main body of car buyers in China's family car market has shifted from young people and low education to middle-aged and highly educated, completely subverting the user structure and underlying logic of China's family car market
In 2014, the proportion of young people in China's family car market was as high as 69.97%, and the proportion of low education in high school and below accounted for nearly 60%. The car purchase nodes of this group focus on marriage and childbirth, which is a typical first-time buyer who has a strong demand for car purchase but lacks experience, and is prone to affordable and middle-of-the-road products such as Lavida, Suteng, Sylphy, Corolla, etc., and endorsed by international brands such as Volkswagen, Nissan, and Toyota;
In 2017~2020, China's family car market has entered a transition period, the proportion of young and low-educated users has fallen to about 50%, middle-aged users with more family wealth, richer car buying experience and wider demands, and the proportion of high-educated users with higher requirements, stronger experience awareness and more rigorous dialectical thinking has accelerated, resulting in a sharp decline in the market sales of economic mediocre products, boosting the category focus to accelerate from sedans to multi-functional SUVs, of which the biggest benefit is the Volkswagen SUV strategy. In addition, the sales of the three high-end brands of Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW in China continued to increase, and some Chinese brands such as Geely, Changan and Great Wall that are not strong but have outstanding cost performance have ushered in rapid development opportunities;
In 2021~2023, the user structure of China's "new family car market" will take shape rapidly, with the proportion of middle-aged people exceeding 60% and the proportion of high education approaching 70%, completely subverting the user structure and underlying logic of China's family car market.
In the past decade, the proportion of women and the middle class in China's family car market has been approaching the ratio of men to wages, which has greatly enriched the connotation of China's family car market
In 2014~2016, the proportion of men in China's family car market exceeded 80%, and the proportion of wage earners was as high as about 70%.
In 2017~2020, the proportion of women in China's family car market quickly exceeded 30%, and the proportion of the middle class quickly exceeded 35%, the two major trends not only boosted the high-end of China's car market, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, etc. accelerated feminization, but also boosted electrification, women have become the main consumer of electric vehicles such as Model 3 and Wuling MINIEV;
In 2021~2023, the proportion of women in China's family car market will rise to 36.74%, and the proportion of the middle class will rise to 43.54%, which will greatly enrich the connotation of China's family car market. BYD, which will become a new leading brand in China's auto market in 2023, actually has more than 40% of its sales coming from female users, which is significantly higher than core competitors such as Volkswagen and Toyota.
The user structure of "two guides and two modernizations", together with the high-end and diversified product structure, has jointly built a new structure of China's "new family car market".
In the past ten years, the user structure of China's family car market has changed drastically: in 2014~2016, the user structure of the previous stage was inherited, mainly youth, low education, men and salaries; in 2017~2020, it entered a transition period, the proportion of youth and low education dropped to 50%, and the proportion of women and the middle class rose to more than 30%;In 2021~2023, middle-aged and highly educated people became the new main body, accounting for 60%~70%, and women and the middle class became the key components, accounting for 40% Up and down...... The user structure of China's "new family car market" presents the characteristics of "two guides and two modernizations", that is, middle-aged and highly educated, and feminization and middle-class are significant.
The user structure of "two guides and two modernizations" boosts the high-end and diversification of the product characteristics of China's "new family car market": in 2014~2016, the products of China's family car market are still dominated by the economic mediocrity, accounting for about 65%, the mainstream quality type is less than 20%, and the atmospheric high-end type is only 5%;In 2017~2020, the economic mediocre type has taken a sharp turn and fallen to 50%, and the mainstream quality type and the atmospheric high-end type have bottomed out, with the former approaching 23% and the latter exceeding 10% In 2021~2023, the economic mediocre type will accelerate its decline, falling to 37.11%, and the mainstream quality, high-end atmosphere, streamlined sports and exquisite fashion will maintain a growth trend......
"Two guides and two modernizations" reconstructs the user structure and underlying logic of China's "new family car market", high-end and diversification greatly enrich the connotation of China's "new family car market", a new era has jumped on paper, 2021~2023 belongs to the "experience period", let everyone adapt to it first, find the feeling.
In 2019~2023, Ideal Auto, which actively tested the waters of the "new family car market", took the lead in benefiting, and the Trumpchi M8, Denza D9, and Wenjie M7 further verified the "new family opportunities"
The first company to test the "new family car market" is GAC Trumpchi, GS8, M8 and other companies have benefited, but the first to clearly compete for the "new family car market" to the strategic level is Li Auto;
In April 2019, Li Auto's first medium and large extended-range SUV, the Ideal ONE, was officially released, equipped with extended-range power, positioning "daddy" (later positioned as "family"), layout of three rows of six or seven seats, etc., at that time, the above points were very controversial, but effectively met the needs of "two guides and two modernizations" users of the "new family car market". In the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, Li Auto will fully upgrade the Ideal ONE to L7/8/9, and the terminal sales of Li Auto in China soared to 377,600 units that year, becoming the main beneficiary of the "new family car market";
In 2022~2023, the strong rise of more and more models that are more suitable for users of "two guides and two modernizations", such as Trumpchi M8, Wenjie M7, Sena, and Grevia, has jointly verified the "new family opportunity".
The "new family car market" has also created an opportunity for the majority of joint venture automakers who are currently behind bars, which is conducive to preventing the market share of joint venture automakers from falling to 10% in the next three to five years
In 2014~2016, in the era of the "old family car market" dominated by youth, salary, male, and low education, the joint ventures of most global car companies in China showed a strong growth trend. The problem lies in the transition period of China's family car market in 2017~2020, during which the main sales of most joint venture car companies still came from economic mediocre products, but the economic mediocre car market collapsed, resulting in a rapid and sharp decline in the sales of most joint venture car companies, or even only a fraction of them. The full-scale outbreak of the crisis of joint venture car companies appeared in 2021~2023, when China's "new family car market" was basically formed, and even the joint ventures of strong overseas car companies such as Volkswagen, Nissan, Honda, and Toyota in China also saw a sharp decline in sales;
As of the first quarter of 2024, the economic mediocre car market is still shrinking, but many joint venture automakers are still focusing on economic mediocre products, resulting in the market share of overseas automakers in China falling below 50% to 46.62%. In the next three to five years, if the product upgrade efforts of overseas car companies still cannot keep up with the evolution rhythm of China's "new family car market", the phenomenon of failure to collapse again, when BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu's prediction will be verified, that is, in the next three to five years, the share of joint ventures will fall to 10%;
On April 24, 2024, SAIC-GM's Buick GL8 Luzun PHEV was officially launched, and in the next two years, more joint ventures in China of global car companies such as Ford and Volkswagen will increase high-end energy-saving products and sound the clarion call for a comprehensive counteroffensive.
In 2023, Li Auto will lead the mainstream brand penetration ranking of the "New Family Car Market", but MEGA and L6 will disrupt Li Auto's strategic rhythm a bit
Since the L7/8/9 are all tailor-made for China's "new family users", in 2023, Li Auto's family users will account for 91.93%, leading the mainstream brand penetration rate ranking in the family car market. Although in the first half of 2024, the order performance of MEGA and L6 was lower than expected, and L7/8/9 was forced to reduce prices and promotions, the above problems are all at the tactical level, and Li Auto's response is very timely, there is no problem with the strategic direction, and it is still a new family. In comparison, BYD's market strategy in 2024 is more prudent, first comprehensively optimizing the price system of the main models on sale based on the "Honor Edition", and then launching new cars such as Qin L, Seal 06, and Yuan UP, further enriching the product layout under the new price system. The bigger challenge of Li Auto will appear in the second half of 2024, when BYD's Tang MAX, Tang L, Denza N9 and other strong competitors will fully encircle the Li L7/8/9. It is believed that MEGA is conducive to Li Auto's rational view of the pure electric route, and L6 is conducive to Li Auto's rational view of the extended range route, and in view of potential challenges, it is hoped that Li Auto can formulate a more rational market strategy to avoid being disrupted by the temporary loss of MEGA and L6.
VOYAH Auto's household penetration rate is 90.84%, ranking second, among which Dreamer focuses on high-end families, and FREE and Chasing Light focus on mainstream families. By the end of 2023, the power of PHEVs with a wider range of applicable scenarios will better meet the demands of new family users, helping VOYAH's monthly sales to quickly rise to 10,000 units. The launch of more mainstream new products in 2024 is theoretically conducive to VOYAH's continued consolidation of the new family car market.
As of the first quarter of 2024, DENZA has successively launched three products: D9, N7 and N8, of which D9 focuses on high-end families, N8 focuses on mainstream families, and N7 focuses on female family users, and in the second half of 2024, DENZA will launch new products such as full-size SUVs and large sedans, focusing on consolidating the high-end family car market, continuing to sharpen high-end labels, and minimizing internal friction with BYD, Formula Leopard and other related brands. At a time when the number of models is increasing, it is recommended that DENZA should focus on it to avoid the embarrassment of a rapid decline in single vehicle sales with the increase of new cars, such as Xpeng and NIO.
In 2022~2023, although WEY brand has made positive adjustments and generally has a sense of direction to compete for the "new family car market", it has not been fully reflected in sales. The next focus should be to effectively weigh the long-term and short-term interests, effectively distinguish the division of labor between this brand and other Great Wall brands, formulate a more competitive price system, and actively break the self-perception cycle of "applause but not popularity";
Although Hongqi has a serious brand of "official cars", its penetration rate in the "new family car market" in 2023 is not low, ranking seventh with 86.18%. From 2024, Hongqi will also comprehensively strengthen the energy-saving power of PHEVs, help Hongqi compete in the "new family car market", and optimize the people-friendly brand label;
Trumpchi is an early practitioner of "bad luck" to become China's "new family car market", and will launch the E9 and E8 in 2023, further enhancing its competitiveness. From 2024 onwards, it hopes to consolidate its position in the first camp of the "high-end new family car market";
In the second half of 2023, the M7 will reduce the core price range from 300,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan with the courage of a strong man's broken arm, which will instantly make Wenjie a strong competitor in China's "new family car market" and pose a huge challenge to Li Auto. From 2024 onwards, with the continuous optimization of the price system of existing products such as M7 and M9, and the continuous influx of new products such as M8 and M6, Wenjie will further consolidate its leading position in the "new family car market".
In 2021, Toyota launched two major strategies of high-end and energy-saving, which suddenly hit the key point of China's "new family car market", and new products such as Sena have "increased prices" in terminals. In 2022~2023, the strong influx of new competing products such as Ideal L7/8/9 and Denza D9 with more prominent energy saving, more atmospheric design, and richer configurations will quickly dilute Toyota's advantages, and products such as Highlander, Sena, and Grevia will be forced to reduce prices on a large scale. In 2024, see if the new Prado can launch a second round of charge;
Nissan is one of the leaders in the last round of the family car market, and Sylphy, X-Trail, Qashqai, etc. are very suitable for the needs of young people, men, salaried and other users, but in 2020~2023, with the rapid formation of the "new family car market" of "two guides and two modernizations", Nissan, which lacks mainstream quality, atmospheric high-end, streamlined sports and other products, has encountered huge challenges. In 2024, new products such as Tanlu will help Nissan test the "new family car market", and in the future, it must maximize the value of Tanlu's "pathfinder";
In 2023, there is no BYD in the top 20 mainstream brand family user penetration rate, but it does not mean that BYD's influence does not exist, but it shows that BYD still has great growth potential, and has not yet made large-scale efforts to subdivide the largest car market - the new family car market, and the majority of competing products must be highly vigilant.
In 2023, Buick GL8 will lead the mainstream model penetration ranking of the "new family car market".
From 2024 onwards, the strategic focus of joint ventures will shift from pure electric vehicles to high-end energy-saving products
For a long time, Buick GL8 has been the first choice in China's public and commercial car market, and at the end of 2016, the new Buick GL8 was launched, accelerating its entry into the family car market. At the end of 2022, SAIC-GM's new flagship MPV Buick Century was launched, with a price of 529,900~689,900 yuan, actively exploring the high-end family car market. On April 25, 2024, SAIC-GM responded positively to the challenges of competing products and officially released the GL8 PHEV version, accelerating the layout of a more mainstream family car market.
Following Buick GL8, ranking in the "new family car market" model penetration rate TOP20, as well as ideal L9, ideal L8, Saina, Grevia, Highlander, Lufang, Trumpchi M8, Trumpchi GS8, Denza D9 and a large number of atmospheric high-end products, once the "new family car market" flourishes in the future, the explosion rate of atmospheric high-end products is quite high, ideal L7/8/9, Wenjie M7, Denza D9 and so on are just the beginning. Starting with the Buick GL8 PHEV, overseas automakers will also quickly make up for this shortcoming, accelerating the shift of strategic focus from pure electric vehicles to high-end energy-saving products.
In 2023, BYD will quickly dominate the "new family car market" in the formative period, but BYD has not yet made large-scale efforts in China's largest segmented car market, the "new family car market"
In 2023, BYD's market share in China's family car market will rise rapidly to 11.47%, instantly surpassing Volkswagen's 10.41% and Toyota's 8.41%, and many models such as Qin Plus, Song Plus, Dolphin, Yuan Plus, Han, Song Pro, and Seagull will be promoted to the top 20 model market share.
In 2023, although BYD will quickly dominate China's "new family car market" in the formative period, and China's "new family car market" will make great contributions to BYD's promotion to the top 10 global car companies in terms of sales, BYD has not yet made large-scale efforts in China's largest segment of the car market, the "new family car market". As of the end of 2023, BYD's existing products are not the fist products competing for the "new family car market", Qin plus and Song plus are both entry-level household products with relatively low added value, although Han and Tang belong to the mainstream quality products, but they are encountering more and more challenges, and their performance in 2023 is a little staggering. From the second half of 2024, BYD will make strong efforts to launch a large number of new products that actively cater to the "new family car market", such as Tang MAX, Tang L, Denza N8 MAX, Denza N9, and Formula Leopard 8.
Judging from the pricing strategy of the 2023 Champion Edition to the 2024 Glory Edition, BYD's "new family product" is believed to adopt the same radical pricing rules, choking the "pricing throat" of competing products and not giving any chance to breathe. Once the price of the mid-to-large MPV Tang MAX and the mid-to-large SUV Tang L drops to 200,000~250,000 yuan, not only will most of the joint venture high-end PHEVs that will be launched one after another be stillborn, but also the question and ideal will encounter the first real challenge.
In 2023, most car companies are fully aware of the "new family opportunity".
The 2024 Beijing Auto Show will push the "new family product" to the center of the stage
In the past decade, the product focus of China's family car market has accelerated from the economic mediocre type to the mainstream quality, high-end type, streamlined sports type and other high-end and more diversified directions, and the next five to ten years will generally continue this direction. The pre-purchase data of family users in 2023 shows that the proportion of pre-orders of mainstream quality exceeds that of the economic mediocre type, the proportion of atmospheric high-end type is close to the economic mediocre type, the streamlined sports type maintains strong growth, and the off-road tough type accelerates growth. The first two types meet the consumption upgrading needs of family users, among which the mainstream quality is more than young families, and the atmosphere is high-end and middle-aged families, and the latter two meet the diversified needs of family users.
At the 2024 Beijing Auto Show, there are almost no economic mediocre products that once stood in the center of the stage, and new products that are more suitable for the "new family car market" such as off-road toughness, streamlined sports, mainstream quality and atmospheric high-end have been officially pushed to the center of the stage. For example, in the next two years, when the prices of more and more mainstream quality products will drop to about 150,000 yuan, and the atmospheric high-end products will drop to about 200,000 yuan, I believe that the consumption enthusiasm of the "new family car market" will be completely ignited.
2024~2030 is the golden development period of China's "new family car market", which will break out two decisive battles between China and foreign countries and China and China, and reshape the competition pattern of the domestic and global car markets
In 2021~2023, China's "new family car market" will be basically formed, and the user level will highlight the "two guides and two modernizations", that is, middle-aged and highly educated will be fully dominant, feminization and middle-class will be highlighted, and high-end and diversification will be highlighted at the product level. During this period, BYD's product structure accelerated its high-end and diversification, and BYD, which actively attracted users of "two guides and two modernizations", quickly surpassed Volkswagen and became a new leading brand in China's family car market, which helped BYD dominate the Chinese auto market and promoted to the top 10 global car companies in terms of sales.
In 2024~2026, it is predicted that China's "new family car market" will enter a period of rapid development, and there is a high probability that there will be two decisive battles between Chinese brands and overseas brands, and between Chinese brands and Chinese brands. During this period, once the strategic planning and product layout of joint venture car companies cannot keep up with the evolution of the "new family car market", the market share will generally accelerate the decline, or there may be a possibility that the share of the joint venture will fall from more than 40% to 10% as predicted by Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, and the competition pattern between the domestic and global auto markets may be reshaped. Although joint venture car companies are also actively responding, the next two or three years will also launch a large number of PHEV and other energy-saving products, but many joint venture car companies are making the mistake of "carving the boat for the sword", because most of the joint venture car companies are about to introduce energy-saving technology, generally to meet the current challenges, but in the next two or three years, Chinese brand energy-saving technology will continue to break through, when the comprehensive range of 2000 kilometers and above energy-saving vehicles will quickly become the new flagship products, joint venture car companies are likely to sigh again;
In 2027~2030, it is predicted that China's "new family car market" will enter a mature period, and the competition pattern will be relatively stable. After 2030, when China's first batch of large-scale car buyers, the post-80s generation, begins to enter their 50s on a large scale, China's auto market may usher in a new round of consumption cycle (this report will not discuss specifically);
On the whole, in 2024~2030, although the proportion of single users in China's auto market will continue to increase, married family users are still the main body, and the market share is still expected to be 65% or more, and the annual sales volume can still maintain a high level of 10 million vehicles.