From the "first quarterly report" to see the "stability" and "progress" of "about 5%"

In the first quarter of the key year to achieve the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan, GDP increased by 5.3% year-on-year, new achievements were made in high-quality development, and the national economy continued to pick up and improve, making a good start to achieve the expected goal of "GDP growth of about 5%" for the whole year.

"It is necessary to adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, implement the requirements of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down, continue to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and promote Chinese-style modernization in a solid and steady manner. "General Secretary Xi Jinping's firm and powerful words have pointed out the direction for the high-quality development of China's economy.

Through the "shape" of data, we can understand the "potential" of development. Through an in-depth analysis of China's economic "first quarterly report", we can better understand the "stability" and "progress" of "about 5%", so as to see the trend and general logic of China's long-term economic development, and constantly enhance the sense of mission and responsibility for doing a good job in economic work.

(a)

Looking at the growth from the "first quarterly report", the expected target of "about 5%" will be achieved throughout the year, and the foundation of "stability" will be firmer.

"Seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking down" -- the mainland's economic development in the first quarter embodied this requirement.

Looking at the total amount, the mainland's GDP in the first quarter was 296299 billion yuan, more than $4 trillion, and the scale of such a quarterly economy is roughly equivalent to the total economic output of some developed countries in a year.

Looking at the growth rate, the mainland's GDP increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, an increase of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter over the fourth quarter of last year, and the quarter-on-quarter growth rate has increased for seven consecutive quarters.

Goldman Sachs raised its growth forecast from 4.8% to 5.0%, Morgan Stanley raised its growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.8%, and ......the Asian Development Bank raised its growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%.

Cao Heping, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, believes that since the beginning of this year, the main economic indicators have rebounded for the better, and China's economy is steadily moving towards achieving the annual growth target of about 5 percent.

At present, the world economy is struggling to recover and its growth rate is slowing down. China's growth of 5.3% in the first quarter is not easy, and it continues to inject confidence and impetus into the world economy. On the same day that the "first quarterly report" was released, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for this year by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2%. Bloomberg predicts that China will be the largest contributor to global economic growth over the next five years.

"Stability" not only comes from economic growth, but also in the "First Quarterly Report", many economic indicators show that China's economy has started steadily and continues to rebound.

Look at the three major industries, structural optimization. The situation of agricultural production is good, industrial production is growing rapidly, and the service industry continues to grow steadily on the basis of last year's high base. The tertiary industry accounted for 59 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the same period last year, and contributed 55.7 percent to economic growth.

Looking at the three major demands, there is a steady rise. The growth rate of investment in fixed assets increased by 1.5 percentage points over last year, service consumption grew rapidly, online consumption continued to be strong, residents' consumption of upgraded products continued to improve, and the growth rate of imports and exports hit a new high in six quarters.

Looking at the four major macro indicators, the employment situation is stable and improving, consumer prices have stopped falling and stabilized, the balance of payments is generally balanced, and economic growth has picked up.

For an economy as large as China, keeping the economy running smoothly is crucial. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) proposed that by 2035, the mainland's per capita GDP will "reach a new level and reach the level of a moderately developed country", which requires us to maintain reasonable economic growth for a long time on the basis of improving the quality of development. The target of "about 5%" is organically connected with the goal of the "14th Five-Year Plan", which is in line with the actual development, is both positive and prudent, and is a goal that takes into account both quantity and quality, and takes into account both needs and possibilities.

Looking at the whole year from the "first quarterly report", the growth rate of 5.3% remained within the reasonable range of "about 5%", which reflects the requirements of maintaining concentration, steady progress, sticking to the bottom line, and focusing on the long-term, which is conducive to promoting the steady and healthy development of the economy and society, and laying a solid foundation for achieving the expected goal of economic development for the whole year.

(b)

Looking at the quality from the "first quarterly report", promoting high-quality development and accelerating the development of new quality productivity, the momentum of "progress" is stronger.

Observing the economic growth in the first quarter, there is a reasonable growth in quantity, a more qualitative and effective improvement, new progress has been made in high-quality development, and the momentum of "progress" is more abundant.

On January 31, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) focused on "solidly promoting high-quality development" for the first time this year. When presiding over the study, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "The development of new quality productivity is an inherent requirement and an important focus to promote high-quality development, and we must continue to do a good job in innovation to accelerate the development of new quality productivity." ”

Since the beginning of this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping has repeatedly focused on "new quality productivity", emphasizing that "we must lead industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, and actively cultivate and develop new quality productivity", requiring "strengthening major scientific and technological research, strengthening the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, actively cultivating new formats, new models and new kinetic energy, and developing new quality productivity according to local conditions".

A car drives the upgrading of traditional industries. From the old industrial city to the "new energy capital", Changzhou, Jiangsu Province relies on the "family foundation" of passenger car manufacturing, introduces the head enterprises of new energy vehicles to settle in the "construction chain", promotes the expansion of the power battery cluster "strong chain", attracts parts and components enterprises to "extend the chain", and creates a 700 billion yuan industrial chain.

One kilowatt-hour of electricity lights up the kinetic energy of emerging industries. On March 20, Qinghai's first smart energy storage industrial park project started in Xining. Relying on the advantages of "green electricity" and the development of new quality productivity according to local conditions, a number of strategic emerging industries have risen on the plateau.

A light that illuminates the charm of the future industry. On April 6, the in-situ experimental device was loaded in Hefei, Anhui Province, and was ready to be transported to Shanghai synchrotron radiation light source for experiments. The integration of science and technology innovation in the Yangtze River Delta has added new momentum to accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity, and Shanghai and Hefei have joined hands to build the fourth generation of "Hefei Advanced Light Source", and the "two beams of light" reflect a new light.

Go to the "new" and go far with the "quality". Judging from the "first quarterly report," the development of new quality productive forces has shown new results in some industries, business activities, and products.

The development of new industries has been accelerated. The added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 7.5 percent year-on-year, and the high-tech service industry continued to maintain a rapid growth trend.

Accelerate the cultivation of new products. The output of charging piles, 3D printing equipment and electronic components increased by 41.7%, 40.6% and 39.5% respectively year-on-year.

New investment has been accelerated. Investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 10.8 percent and 12.7 percent respectively.

The momentum of new infrastructure is good. Since the beginning of the year, the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G base stations, eastern and western computing, and optical fiber communications has been accelerated. By the end of February, the mainland had added 132,000 new 5G base stations, with a total of more than 3.5 million.

The more high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality industries are, the better their development will be, and it has become an increasingly new atmosphere in China's economy today. Judging from the "first quarterly report", the added value of emerging industries such as high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year, becoming an important driving force for industrial improvement in the first quarter.

In the stage of high-quality development, without effective qualitative improvement, reasonable quantitative growth will not be sustainable. Only by persisting in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing first and then breaking through, can we grasp the strategic initiative, enhance the resilience of development, and create good expectations and new impetus for the stable and healthy operation of the economy and society and the realization of high-quality development.

We will implement the policy of structural tax reduction and fee reduction, focusing on supporting the development of scientific and technological innovation and the manufacturing industry, reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, set up a 500 billion yuan re-loan for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation, and promote large-scale equipment renewal and the trade-in of consumer goods to further unleash the potential of domestic demand...... Focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment, and focusing on changing modes, adjusting structure, improving quality, and increasing efficiency, the mainland has strengthened counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments, and strengthened the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, and industrial policies to ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and form a joint force.

Yuan Da, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission and Director of the Department of Comprehensive National Economy, said that with the continuous effectiveness of the policies and measures introduced and implemented in the early stage, and the implementation of new tasks and new measures deployed by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, China's economic recovery will continue to consolidate, and we are more confident and confident to complete the annual goals and tasks with high quality.

(c)

Judging from the general trend of the "first quarterly report", the basic trend of China's economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed, and the confidence is more sufficient.

The good start in the first quarter has further confirmed that the favorable conditions facing the mainland's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed.

Looking far away, you can know that the wind and waves are small, and the volley is flat at the beginning of the sea. Looking back at the development process of China's economy after the smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, several distinct curves are impressive.

A curve that fluctuates around the expected goal of stable growth, China's economic growth is steady: China's GDP grew by 4.5%, 6.3%, 4.9% and 5.2% year-on-year in the four quarters of 2023, respectively, and 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.

In 2023, the mainland's investment in high-tech industries will increase by 10.3% over the previous year, and in the first quarter of this year, investment in high-tech industries will increase by 11.4% year-on-year.

There is also a curve, which adheres to the target of "about 5.5% of the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas", and the trend of employment improvement is obvious: the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas for the whole year of 2023 will be 5.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year, and in the first quarter of this year, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas will be 5.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year.

With wave-like development, zigzag progress and positive trend, China's economy has continued to develop in overcoming challenges, showing vigorous vitality, inexhaustible momentum and great potential, and generally showing the characteristics of "stability", "progress" and "good".

"It is necessary to firmly grasp the primary task of high-quality development, and develop new quality productive forces according to local conditions", "It is necessary to plan major measures to further deepen reform in an all-round way, and continue to inject strong impetus into promoting high-quality development and promoting Chinese-style modernization"......

Looking at the overall situation from the beginning and doing a good job in the critical year, we must deeply understand the scientific judgment and decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, and effectively enhance the sense of responsibility and mission of doing a good job in economic work.

The temperament of a country has a great appearance. The larger and higher the quality of China's economy, the higher the requirements and difficulties of development. To continue to consolidate and enhance the positive momentum of economic recovery, we need to make more efforts and meet greater challenges.

At present, the external environment is complex, severe and uncertain, the effective domestic demand is insufficient, the social expectations are weak, the foundation for economic stability and improvement is not yet solid, and the economic operation is still facing many risks and challenges.

The good start in the first quarter enlightens us that we must keep in mind that high-quality development is the last word in the new era, fully implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, continue to consolidate the foundation of "stability", and stimulate the momentum of "progress".

To consolidate the foundation of "stability" and stimulate the kinetic energy of "progress", we must seek impetus from innovation.

In the historical confluence period of the world's new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation and the mainland's transformation of the mode of development, we are faced with a once-in-a-lifetime historical opportunity as well as a severe challenge of widening the gap, and we must uphold the core position of innovation in the overall situation of modernization and permeate innovation in the entire process of modernization in all aspects.

Traditional industries are alive because of the "new", and the economic structure is advancing because of the "new". Firmly grasp the "bull's nose" of scientific and technological innovation, open up a new track for development with new quality productivity, enhance new momentum for development, shape new advantages for development, strive to win the initiative for future development, and turn the beautiful picture of Chinese-style modernization into reality step by step.

To consolidate the foundation of "stability" and stimulate the momentum of "progress," it is necessary to seek vitality from reform.

Reform is the key to emancipating and developing the social productive forces and is the fundamental driving force for promoting national development. On the way forward, we will take the comprehensive deepening of reform as the fundamental driving force for promoting Chinese-style modernization, and steadily deepen the reform of important areas and key links.

To consolidate the foundation of "stability" and stimulate the momentum of "progress", it is necessary to seek potential from opening up.

At present, the mainland's economy is in a critical period of changing its development mode, optimizing its economic structure, and changing its growth momentum. We will unswervingly open up to the outside world on a larger scale, in a wider range of fields and at a deeper level, strive to resolve the outstanding contradictions and problems restricting the development of the mainland, fully unleash the huge potential and strong momentum of the mainland's development, promote higher-quality development with a higher level of opening-up, and inject new impetus into the development of the world economy.

The good start of the first quarter has taught us to work hard when we see it, and strive to respond to the uncertainty of the changing situation with the certainty of our own work.

General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "We must seize all favorable opportunities, take advantage of all favorable conditions, and work hard when we see it, and bring up the enthusiasm of all aspects." ”

The good start of the first quarter came from the hard work of developing new quality productivity and actively seizing the new track of development according to local conditions, from the determination of the majority of enterprises to anchor high-quality development and practice internal skills, seek breakthroughs and open up new roads, from the tenacious struggle of scientific and technological workers to overcome the problem of "stuck neck", and from the hard work of people from all walks of life with sweat and hard work.

Huawei (Shenzhen) Global Embodied Intelligent Industry Innovation Center was signed and listed, and Tencent's "Internet+" Future Eco-City was launched...... In the first quarter, Bao'an District of Shenzhen made a hot start in cultivating and developing new quality productivity. At the beginning of this year, the Third Party Congress of the Seventh Party Congress of Bao'an District took "progress" as the key word of this year, and required Bao'an's "progress" as the overall "stability" and Shenzhen's "progress" as greater support.

"If you see it, you should do it quickly", there is a sense of mission, responsibility and urgency between the lines, and it contains the methodology of scientific research and judgment of "time" and "potential", and dialectical grasp of "planning" and "doing". "Accurate" is the premise, and it is necessary to accurately understand the intention of the Party Central Committee's decision-making and deployment and implementation measures. "Doing" is fundamental, and we must overcome difficulties, work hard, and promote high-quality development in a down-to-earth and down-to-earth manner.

"China's development prospects are bright, and we have the confidence and confidence to do so. "Adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, further unify thoughts and actions with the judgment and decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee on the economic situation, drum up the spirit of entrepreneurship, and form a good situation of vigorous implementation, we have the confidence, conditions and ability to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks, and strive to promote China's economy to ride the wind and waves and move forward. (Jin Sheping)