Source: Photo.com
International oil prices continued to fall, burying expectations for a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment. This round of domestic finished product prices is expected to usher in the "two consecutive drops" in the price adjustment window on May 15, when the domestic finished product prices will cash in the "biggest decline" of the year, and the price of No. 92 gasoline is expected to return to the "7 yuan era".
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the eighth working day on May 13, the average price of crude oil varieties referenced in domestic oil price adjustment was 81.73 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -4.88%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be reduced by 235 yuan / ton.
According to this range, the price of gasoline and diesel per liter is expected to be reduced by 0.18-0.19 yuan, and No. 92 gasoline in many places in China may return to the "7 yuan era".
This means that the cost of fuel for car owners will decrease. Taking the fuel tank capacity of an ordinary private car with a capacity of 50 liters as an example, filling up a tank of fuel will cost at least 9 yuan less; In terms of diesel, a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 140 liters will save about 27.5 yuan by filling up a tank of fuel.
Liu Bingjuan, an analyst of refined oil products at Longzhong Information, said that international crude oil prices showed a volatile downward trend in this round of price adjustment cycle. As of May 13, the average price of reference crude oil in the cycle was 82.52 US dollars / barrel, down 4.89% from the previous cycle, as of the 9th working day, the corresponding refined oil reduction in this round of the cycle has exceeded 200 yuan / ton, and the final reduction has basically been confirmed.
Upstream global collaboration and division of labor, downstream demand is broad
The upstream of the industrial chain of the refined oil industry mainly involves the exploration and exploitation of oilfields and the import of crude oil. Since the mainland's recoverable crude oil resources cannot meet the mainland's consumption demand, the import of crude oil is also a key part of the upstream industrial chain. The downstream is mainly the direct consumer group of refined oil, including the automotive industry, agricultural vehicles and agricultural machinery, aerospace, highway construction, shipping industry, fuel power generation, etc. The refined oil industry mainly includes the production, wholesale and retail of refined oil.
Comparison of the performance of the refined oil business of listed companies in the refined oil industry
From the perspective of revenue scale, PetroChina and Sinopec occupy an absolute leading position, with revenues of 100 billion yuan, of which PetroChina and Sinopec have revenues of 746.59 billion yuan and 639.6 billion yuan respectively, and refined oil output of 107 million tons and 142 million yuan respectively.
Note: The gross profit margin of Hengli Petrochemical is the overall gross profit margin of the refining and chemical sector.
It is expected that the demand for refined oil products will peak during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period
In terms of willingness to travel, in the context of normalized epidemic prevention and control, concerns about the overcrowding of public transportation systems will make car owners increase the frequency of private car use. The uncertainty of the epidemic has had a great impact on business and tourism activities, which is not conducive to the recovery of this part of the rigid demand for gasoline. Overall, as positive progress continues to be made in epidemic prevention and control, gasoline consumption will continue to rebound steadily. The recovery of kerosene consumption largely depends on the control of the epidemic overseas. Judging from the current development trend of the spread of the epidemic on all continents, it is difficult for kerosene consumption to reach a normal level.
According to the mainland's "14th Five-Year Plan", it will reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and vigorously develop new energy sources. It is expected that the refined oil industry will grow faster in 2021 due to the recovery of domestic demand, and then the growth rate will develop in the range of 0.5%-3% in 2022-2026, and it is expected that the apparent consumption of refined oil in China will reach a peak of 364 million tons in 2026.
In the short term, although the impact of alternative energy on refined oil products is not very large, from the perspective of long-term development, the general direction of future automotive power will still be towards the development of cleaner and more environmentally friendly new energy, and the transformation of mainland refineries is imperative. With the changes in the market environment, China's refining industry is entering a stage of transformation and upgrading. As the continent's energy strategy has shifted, the focus of petroleum refining will no longer be closer to petroleum fuels.
In the future, the trend of base, park and integration of refined oil refining and chemical enterprises in mainland China will be more obvious, the elimination of backward equipment will be accelerated, and the industrial concentration will continue to increase; The production process of refineries needs to face the challenges of clean and low-carbon, so that refining enterprises will accelerate structural adjustment and improve competitiveness. China's refined oil industry will face multiple challenges such as limited export space, changes in demand structure, product quality upgrading, and increased pressure on environmental protection.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Global and China Refined Oil Industry Market Research and Investment Prospect Analysis Report" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
At the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment, industrial mapping, smart investment promotion system, industry status certificate, IPO consulting/fundraising and investment feasibility study, and specialized and special new small giant declaration. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and annual report, formal authorization from Qianzhan Industry Research Institute is required.
More in-depth industry analysis is available in the [Prospective Economist APP], and you can also communicate and interact with 500+ economists/senior industry researchers. More enterprise data, enterprise information, and enterprise development are all in the [Qichamao APP], the most cost-effective and most comprehensive enterprise query platform.