In the past two days, the intensity of the weather in the southern part of the mainland, especially in southern China, has gradually escalated, for example, since April 26, the squall line has swept through the Pearl River Delta and other places, and violent storms and rains in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. On April 27, a number of super cells swept through Guangxi and Guangdong, and there were extreme storms and huge hail in the northern part of the Pearl River Delta, and around 3 o'clock in the afternoon, a tornado appeared near Zhongluotan Town, Baiyun District, Guangzhou.
▲ Source: Photo by Calle Pictures Ning Ying
From the perspective of precipitation process, since the pre-flood season in South China (April 4) this year, the subtropical high has been stronger, continuously transporting abundant water vapor to South China, coupled with the continuous penetration of cold air from the north to the south, confronting the warm and humid airflow, which in turn has triggered continuous heavy rainfall and strong convective weather. At the same time, with the development of low vortex shear, the abundant water vapor continuously transported and the favorable dynamic lifting conditions can easily form a "train effect" in South China after the convection is stimulated, resulting in a long duration of local rainfall and a continuous superposition of the impact effect.
In the larger context, the precipitation in southern China this year is also clearly related to El Niño. On the other hand, under the influence of El Niño, the subtropical high in the northwest Pacific has continued to be strong since April, guiding the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal to continuously transport water vapor to the south of the mainland, with extremely abundant water vapor, and at the same time cooperating with the circulation anomalies in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and South China, forming many heavy precipitation processes.
Snowfall in many places in Inner Mongolia and Hebei returned to winter overnight
Let's take a look at the north, from April 27th to April 28th, there was a rare snowfall in central Inner Mongolia and northern Hebei, and with thunder and lightning, there was a heavy snowstorm in the Zhenglan Banner and Duolun area in the south of Xilin Gol League, with more than 30 mm of snowfall (turning into water), and the snow in the early morning of the 28th, 11 cm in the blue flag and 17 cm in Duolun. The snow cover in Toronto was the second highest on record for April, after April 2008's 19 cm. The snowfall continues, and from April 28 to April 29, the snow cover in Duolun may break the local April record.
▲ Source: Photo by Jia Qiong of Kale Pictures
At the Saihanba Mechanical Forest Farm in Chengde, the snow was 32 centimeters deep as of 11 a.m. on April 28, and residents in Zhangjiakou's Saibei Management Area switched back to winter clothes. On April 28, many places in Hebei issued gale warnings and lightning warnings.
Affected by the cold air, the temperature in Zhangjiakou and Chengde at 10 o'clock on the 28th was in single digits, and the drop was generally 8~13 °C, and the other areas were mostly around 15~18 °C, and the drop was mostly around 6~8 °C. It is expected that before the May Day holiday, the temperature will be low, especially the lowest temperature, and various places will be suppressed to around 10 °C, or even single digits.
In addition to heavy rain, blizzards, and hot weather
▲ Source: Photo by Calle Pictures Ning Ying
According to the statistics of Hainan Provincial Climate Center, from April 26th to 27th, the daily maximum temperature of the seven national meteorological observation stations in Haikou, Ding'an, Chengmai, Lingao, Danzhou, Baisha and Changjiang all exceeded 40 °C, of which 40.9 °C in Haikou, 41.2 °C in Chengmai and 41.3 °C in Lingao broke the annual extreme value of the maximum temperature of the local national meteorological observation station; 40 °C in Ding'an and 37.6 °C in Wuzhishan were tied for the highest temperature in the local national meteorological observation station; Tunchang and Changjiang both broke the record of the highest temperature in April at the local national meteorological observation station.
The reporter of the central radio network learned from the Hainan Power Grid Company of China Southern Power Grid that the demand for electricity in Hainan has grown rapidly due to the impact of high temperature weather. At 22:25 on April 27, the maximum load of Hainan unified dispatch reached a new high of 7.505 million kilowatts this year, an increase of 0.71% over the historical maximum load (7.452 million kilowatts in August 2023), and then reached a new high of 7.722 million kilowatts at 00:12 on April 28. At present, Hainan's power supply is stable.
The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Department said that during the "May Day" period, the high temperature weather in Hainan has eased, and the weather is generally good, and it is expected that from May 1 to 2, the whole island of Hainan will be dominated by cloudy weather, with thundershowers in some areas, and the highest temperature will be 33~37 °C in most areas of Hainan Island. From May 3rd to 5th, the whole island of Hainan was cloudy and sunny, with thundershowers in the west and north in the afternoon. The highest temperature in most parts of Hainan Island is 32~36 °C.
Extreme weather is frequent, how to deal with it in the long run?
Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services at the National Climate Center, said at the end of 2023 that 2024 is the year following El Niño, and extreme weather will be more obvious. 2024 is likely to be a hotter year, but also a year in which extreme weather is likely to be more frequent and more powerful.
In the context of global warming, El Niño will have an impact on the intensity and frequency of extreme weather outbreaks around the world. Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services at the National Climate Center, said, "The world is facing a hotter, drier and more waterlogged future, and extreme heat has become a 'new normal'. ”
Yuan Hongyong, dean of the School of Safety Science of Tsinghua University, reminded to prepare from two aspects: first, in scientific research, it is necessary to study the occurrence of extreme disaster weather, including the law of secondary derivative disasters, when it will occur, the impact on the entire urban society after it occurs, and what kind of form of the most serious node and social unbearable disaster chain will be manifested, which should be studied and prepared in science. Second, in terms of action, it is necessary to improve the resilience of cities and societies, improve monitoring and early warning capabilities, improve emergency rescue capabilities, and improve the post-disaster recovery capabilities of cities and societies. The building of these three capacities and the improvement of anticipation capabilities will make it possible to prepare for possible future disasters in the future.
Zhou Bing added, "After the disaster, the Ministry of Emergency Management, the Ministry of Water Resources and other relevant departments have made arrangements for long-term flood prevention and flood control, and the national level has also increased financial support for the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation systems. ”
Source: China Xiaokang Network WeChat public account comprehensive love Jinan client, Central Meteorological Observatory, CCTV network, CCTV news, National Meteorological Center
Editor-in-charge: Zhou Jingtao
Review: Wang Fang