It's crazy!There's not much time left for low sucking!See you at 3400!

Securities Market Weekly Market Number

2024-04-30 10:31Published on the official account of Beijing Red Journal Finance

Text丨Wang Fei

Three yang lines, change of faith, what about four? 

On the first trading day of this week, the A-share market closed out of the positive line for the fourth consecutive time after a series of blockbuster news such as the opening of the Chengdu property market and the spoilers of the latest all-solid-state battery technology of the battery leader CATL. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index quickly broke through the 3,100-point integer mark, and by the close of noon, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.18%, and the ChiNext Index, which had fallen for nearly two and a half years, also rose 3.6% again. More than 4,300 stocks rose, with a rise of more than eighty percent, and more than 100 stocks rose by 10% or more. 

In terms of sectors, stimulated by the blockbuster news, the real estate sector and the power sector performed eye-catchingly, among which power generation equipment and real estate ranked the top two gainers in the Wind theme industry. Among them, real estate stocks such as Debi Group, Tefa Service, and 356.com hit the "20CM" daily limit, and the leading Vanke A "10CM" daily limit; power stocks Daikin Heavy Industries and Tianshun Wind Energy hit the daily limit, and CATL also rose sharply. 

A-shares are also rare because of this situation, which rushed to the hot search on Weibo, which really amazed everyone. A number of financial Vs have said, "Today's bulls are indeed exceeding expectations" and "3100? I'm not dreaming...... 

The good news is that while the A-share market continues to rise, the volume of energy is also expanding. On the 25th, the trading volume was less than 800 billion yuan, and on the 26th and 29th, it has continuously exceeded the trillion threshold, and showed an increasing trend. Where there is quantity, there is price, and where there is price, there is opportunity. 

At the same time as the 3100 points and the four positive lines appeared, the belief in A-shares did change, and the market after May Day began to be collectively bullish. A financial big V said, "Judging from last week's situation, institutional funds are bottoming out sharply, and retail investors are relatively cautious, no matter what happens (May Day) The opportunity is great after the May Day." ” 

This has also been recognized by a number of research institutions. As CICC research points out, the slope of the A-share market's recovery since February has slowed down but is still continuing. Guotai Junan also said that the worst-case scenario has been seen at the beginning of the year, and the stock market will be driven by the mid-year market in the case of many uncertainties such as the acceleration of real estate relaxation, manufacturing transformation and price inflation returning to positive. 

In this regard, a number of financial Vs have clearly pointed out that the upper target level of A-shares after May Day is 3400 points.

From the perspective of the index form, 3400 points is the historical pressure level and support level of the Shanghai Composite Index, and if you look closer, for example, in June 2022 and May 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index has encountered resistance. At the same time, it has also served as a support level for the Shanghai Index many times in 2020 and 2021. At the moment, it is too early to say that 3400 points will become a support level, so is it now the upper target of the Shanghai Composite Index? Welcome all "investment friends" to leave a message to discuss.

If 3400 points is the upper target level of the Shanghai Composite Index, there may not be much time left for "investment friends" to buy low. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is around 3100 points, assuming the craziest situation, the Shanghai Composite Index has reached the upper target level with a 10CM limit. 

Peng Zu of "The Great Era of Trend Trading" also has this view. At the same time, he noted that "there is a variable at work, foreign capital is starting to buy." ” 

The facts are just as Peng Zu observed. On the 28th, "Smart Money" northbound funds bought a net of 22.449 billion yuan of A-shares, which refreshed the single-day record since the opening of northbound funds in 2014. On the afternoon of the 29th, northbound funds once again bought a net of 12.716 billion yuan, a scale that should not be underestimated. 

Looking at the history of the single-day net purchase of more than 20 billion yuan by northbound funds, the market will generally usher in a stage of rise after such a purchase. For example, on November 26, 2019, northbound funds bought a net of 21.43 billion yuan in a single day, and by January 14 of the following year, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen by nearly 7% in a month and a half. 

There were also changes in mainland funds. For example, the private equity boss Lin Yuan has recently entered a new heavy position *** (the specific list can be obtained from the staff who contacted you). The company is one of the leading private enterprises in the wire and cable industry in mainland China. Although this investment does not conform to the style of Lin Yuan's investment, the company's business is also closely related to people's livelihood. This is also Lin Yuan's second public investment position after the heavy position of ceramic products company Huaci shares. 

Feng Liu has also recently entered a new heavy position company, lubricating oil additives company Ruifeng New Materials. The company's stock price has risen one after another recently, and it has entered an upward channel. In addition, Feng Liu has recently added positions in Longbai Group, Kanghua Biotechnology, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical and Angel Yeast. 

So, on the occasion of the May Day holiday, what should investors do now? Chase up or reduce positions? Hold stocks for the holidays or hold coins? Every holiday, there are many investors who are accustomed to reducing their positions or even short positions for the holidays, but this time the situation seems to have some new changes, after all, there are few big rises before the holiday, and it is likely to miss the market after the reduction. 

In this regard, Yang Delong, managing director and chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that on the whole, the market after May Day has gradually increased positive factors, including the inflow of foreign capital and the continuous rise of Hong Kong stocks. At the same time, A-shares have also rebounded above 3,000 points recently, and the market's bullish sentiment has improved. "If you hold high-quality stocks or high-quality funds, you can be patient and hold stocks for the holidays. If you hold some theme stocks and concept stocks, you can take profits in time. Yang Delong suggested. 

For investors who missed the market before May Day, there is a financial big V reminding, "It is recommended that all those who want to chase up and buy before the holiday calm down, there will still be some buying points for you after the holiday, there is not much A shares, but there are many opportunities for callbacks, don't worry." ” 

As for the specific operation opportunities, all "old investment friends" can pay attention to Peng Zu above, a trend leader. 

(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are for example analysis only, and do not make trading recommendations.) ）

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