First, the quantity
● National pig slaughter
In the first quarter of 2024, 194.55 million pigs were slaughtered nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 4.43 million heads, a decrease of 2.2%, the least in the past three years.
● National pork production
In the first quarter of 2024, the national pork output was 15.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70,000 tons, or 0.4%.
● National pig inventory
At the end of the first quarter of 2024, the national pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 22.44 million heads, a decrease of 5.2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 25.72 million heads, a decrease of 5.9%, which was the lowest number in the past 13 quarters.
Affected by the reduction of production capacity, the slaughter of live pigs in the first quarter decreased year-on-year.
● The national breeding sow herd
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of March 2024, the national breeding sow herd was 39.92 million heads, a decrease of 500,000 sows from the previous month, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous month, and a month-on-month decline for 6 consecutive months, a decrease of 3.13 million heads from the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a year-on-year decrease for 9 consecutive months, falling below 40 million heads, the lowest number of sows since December 2020, that is, the least in more than 3 years.
According to the "Implementation Plan for the Regulation and Control of Pig Production Capacity (Revised in 2024)", the normal number of sows that can reproduce in the country is 39 million, and the number of sows that can reproduce is in the range of 92%-105% of the normal number of sows (including the two critical values of 92% and 105%) is a green area, indicating that the production capacity fluctuates normally.
In March 2024, the number of fertile sows in March 2024 is 920,000 more than the normal number of 39 million heads, equivalent to 102.4% of the normal number of sows, which belongs to the green area and is a normal fluctuation in production capacity.
● The slaughtering situation of pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in China
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in March 2024, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 25.450 million heads, an increase of 4.4065 million heads month-on-month, an increase of 20.9%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2354 million heads, a decrease of 4.6%, and a year-on-year decline for two consecutive months.
In the first quarter of 2024, the total slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in the country was 83.7435 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%.
● Receipt, storage and delivery of frozen pork from the central reserve
In March 2024, there was no central reserve of frozen pork to be collected, stored and delivered, and in the first quarter of 2024, the planned amount of frozen pork from the central reserve was 171,100 tons, and the planned storage was 245,100 tons.
● Import and export of pork and pig offal in China
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in March 2024, China's meat (including offal) imports were 578,000 tons, an increase of 20.17% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, and a year-on-year decrease for eight consecutive months, of which pork and pig offal imports were 203,300 tons, an increase of 33.84% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 20.6%, and a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months, of which pork imports were 92,700 tons, an increase of 31.8% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 39.3% , a year-on-year decrease for 9 consecutive months, and pork imports were lower than pig offal imports for 3 consecutive months.
In the first quarter of 2024, China's meat (including offal) imports were 1.679 million tons, down 13.9% year-on-year, of which pork and pig offal imports were 547,300 tons, down 33.2% year-on-year, of which pork imports were 256,400 tons, down 51.7% year-on-year.
In March 2024, China exported 50,000 tons of meat (including offal), a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and in the first quarter of 2024, China's meat (including offal) exports were 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%.
Among them, in March 2024, mainland pork exports were 2,300 tons, an increase of 30.9% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, and in the first quarter of 2024, mainland pork exports were 6,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.
In March 2024, mainland pig offal exports were 4,800 tons, up 1.4% month-on-month and down 10.5% year-on-year, and in the first quarter of 2024, mainland pig offal exports were 14,800 tons, up 7.8% year-on-year.
● The sales of live pigs in March and the first quarter of 2024 of 18 listed pig enterprises
According to statistics, the total number of live pigs sold by 18 listed pig companies (Muyuan, Wen's, New Hope, Tianbang, Aonong, Zhengbang, Dabeinong, COFCO, Tangrenshen, Tiankang, Huatong, Jingji Zhinong, Shennong, Jinxinong, Lihua, Luoniushan, Dongrui and Zhenghong) in March 2024 was 12.7632 million heads, an increase of 369,500 heads year-on-year, an increase of 2.98%, and in the first quarter of 2024, the total number of live pigs sold was 37.5157 million heads, an increase of 2.6085 million heads or 7.47% year-on-year.
The total pig sales revenue of the 16 listed pig enterprises (excluding Aonong and COFCO) in March 2024 was 20.127 billion yuan, an increase of 815 million yuan or 4.22% year-on-year, and in the first quarter of 2024, the total live pig sales revenue was 55.224 billion yuan, an increase of 3.125 billion yuan or 6.0% year-on-year. 14 listed pig companies announced the average sales price of commercial pigs in March 2024, which was basically around 14 yuan/kg, up month-on-month and down year-on-year.
Second, the price
● National Bureau of Statistics: In March 2024, the national CPI fell seasonally month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase declined, and pork prices decreased year-on-year
The National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (consumer price index) data for March 2024, and Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted that in March 2024, affected by factors such as the seasonal decline in consumer demand after the holiday and the overall sufficient market supply, the national CPI fell seasonally month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase declined.
1. From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI fell by 1.0%, mainly due to the seasonal decline in food and travel service prices.
Among them, food prices fell by 3.2%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.59 percentage points month-on-month.
In food, the post-holiday consumer demand fell, coupled with the temperature in most areas higher than the same period of the year, the market supply was generally sufficient, and the prices of fresh vegetables, pork, eggs, fresh fruits and aquatic products fell by 11.0%, 6.7%, 4.5%, 4.2% and 3.5% respectively, totaling the CPI fell by about 0.54 percentage points month-on-month, accounting for more than half of the total CPI decline.
2. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 0.1%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The year-on-year decline was also mainly due to the decline in food and mobility service prices.
Among them, food prices fell by 2.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI by about 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, and the pull-down impact increased by about 0.35 percentage points from the previous month.
Among the food products, the prices of eggs, fresh fruits, beef, mutton and poultry meat decreased by 10.4%, 8.5%, 8.4%, 6.0% and 1.7% respectively, and the decline rate expanded.
Prices of fresh vegetables and pork fell by 1.3% and 2.4% respectively from an increase of 2.9% and 0.2% in the previous month.
● Five national ministries and commissions jointly released the price of live pig products in March 2024
According to the joint announcement of the five national ministries and commissions, the national sales price of binary sows in March 2024 was 33.82 yuan/kg, up 1.9% month-on-month, rising month-on-month for 2 consecutive months, the highest price in the past 5 months, and down 10.6% year-on-year, falling year-on-year for 10 consecutive months. Binary sow prices have been higher than piglet prices for 16 consecutive months.
● Unofficial collection of live pigs (outer three yuan) prices
In March 2024, the overall price of pigs fluctuated slowly, but the average price was still slightly lower than that of the previous month, with 19 of the 31 days rising, 10 days falling, and 2 days flat. In March 2024, the highest price in a single day was 7.67 yuan on the 28th, 0.59 yuan lower than the previous month, the lowest price in a single day was 7.04 yuan on the 1st, 4th and 5th days, 0.22 yuan higher than the previous month, and the difference between the highest price and the lowest price was 0.63 yuan, and the difference narrowed.
In March 2024, it will be in the range of 7 yuan for 31 days. According to the calculation of daily pig prices, the average high pig price in March 2024 was 7.47 yuan/jin, the average low pig price was 7.20 yuan/jin, and the average pig price was 7.33 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan or 0.95% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.35 yuan, a decrease of 4.56%, a year-on-year decline for 11 consecutive months, and a decline below 8 yuan for 6 consecutive months.
Since October 2019, the pig price in March 2022 was 6.11 yuan, at the lowest price; in 2022, the highest price was 13.37 yuan, the lowest price was 6.11 yuan, and the price difference was relatively large; in 2023, only August and September were higher than 8 yuan, and the other 10 months were in the range of 7 yuan, which belonged to a low shock; in January 2024, the downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 was continued, but there was a rebound trend at the end of the month; it stopped falling and rebounded in February, and fell slowly in March, not continuing the upward trend in February.
● The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the country's 500 county fairs and collection points to monitor the price of pig products
According to the fixed-point monitoring data of 500 county fairs and collection points released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs every week, the average price of piglets in March 2024 was 32.11 yuan/kg, up 13.74% month-on-month, rising month-on-month for 2 consecutive months, the highest price in nearly 7 months, and down 14.87% year-on-year, falling year-on-year for 10 consecutive months.
In March 2024, the national average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 1.90% month-on-month and 4.17% year-on-year.
In March 2024, the national average price of pork was 24.95 yuan/kg, down 2.31% month-on-month and 5.64% year-on-year, falling year-on-year for 11 consecutive months.
In March 2024, the average price of compound feed for fattening pigs in China was 3.62 yuan/kg, down 1.36% month-on-month, down 6 consecutive months, down 7.89% year-on-year, down 6 consecutive months, the lowest price since November 2021, that is, the lowest price in the past two and a half years.
● The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitors the price of designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size in the country
According to the calculation of the weekly price monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in March 2024, the average purchase price of live pigs from designated pig slaughtering enterprises above designated size was 15.74 yuan/kg, down 1.13% month-on-month, down 3.44% year-on-year, down 11 consecutive months, and the average ex-factory price of white meat was 20.64/kg, down 1.71% month-on-month, down 3.82% year-on-year, down 11 consecutive months.
● Pork prices in the national wholesale market monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the national wholesale market in March 2024 was 20.18 yuan/kg, down 8.44% month-on-month and 2.04% year-on-year.
● The price of lean white pork in the six regions of the country
According to the joint monitoring of the Information Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Shandong Zhuochuang Information Co., Ltd., the ex-factory price of lean white pork in March 2024 was 19.34 yuan/kg, down 4.12% month-on-month, ending three consecutive months of month-on-month increase, and up 1.47% year-on-year, up two consecutive months. At the beginning of March, hog and pork prices continued to be at the low levels of last weekend. At the same time, the price of large weight pigs (more than 140 kg pigs, the same below) is higher than that of standard weight pigs (110-130 kg, the same below) and the price spread has expanded, and the fattening professional households will increase the weight of the pig source back to the circle for the second time, resulting in a short-term tightening of the supply of pigs; 。 Overall, the monthly average price of pork in March fell month-on-month.
From the perspective of the six major regions of the country, the price in South China is basically at the highest price, and the price in Northeast China is basically at the lowest price.
In February 2024, prices in Northeast China fell month-on-month, and the other five regions all rose month-on-month, of which East China was the highest for two consecutive months, and in March 2024, prices in South China rose month-on-month, and the other five regions all fell month-on-month, and South China returned to the highest after two months, and Northeast China was the lowest for four consecutive months.
● Market prices of live pigs and feed published by the National Bureau of Statistics
According to the market price data of important means of production in the circulation field released on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of live pigs in March 2024 was 14.7 yuan/kg, up 3.03% month-on-month, rising month-on-month for 2 consecutive months, the highest price in the past 5 months, down 3.7% year-on-year, and falling year-on-year for 11 consecutive months.
The price of corn in March 2024 was 2330.2 yuan/ton, up 1.74% month-on-month, ending six consecutive months of month-on-month decline, and down 15.98% year-on-year, falling year-on-year for six consecutive months.
The price of soybean meal in March 2024 was 3443.6 yuan/ton, up 1.75% month-on-month, ending five consecutive months of month-on-month decline, and down 15.14% year-on-year, falling year-on-year for seven consecutive months.
The price of soybeans in March 2024 was 4514.6 yuan/ton, up 1.13% month-on-month, ending a month-on-month decline for three consecutive months, and down 14.31% year-on-year, down 15 consecutive months.
● The price information of pig feed jointly released by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang Information
According to the weekly price calculation jointly monitored by the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhuochuang Information, the national pig price in March 2024 was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.8% month-on-month and 4.44% year-on-year, and the corn price in the main wholesale market was 2.46 yuan/kg, up 0.27% month-on-month, ending five consecutive months of month-on-month decline, and down 15.75% year-on-year, down 6 consecutive months.
The average price of feed in the national feed market in March 2024 was 3.20 yuan/kg, basically the same as the previous month, down 8.97% year-on-year, and fell year-on-year for seven consecutive months.
In March 2024, the national pig feed price ratio was 4.65, down 0.69% month-on-month, ending three consecutive months of month-on-month increase, and up 4.96% year-on-year, up two consecutive months.
The pig feed price break-even point was 4.35, down 1.55% month-on-month, down 2 consecutive months, down 9.52% year-on-year, down 6 consecutive months, the lowest in nearly 19 months, that is, the lowest since September 2022. According to the current price and cost, it is expected that the average profit of pig breeding in the future will be 106.47 yuan, which will be profitable for 3 consecutive months, and the profit margin will expand.
● Pig prices in the corporate area
According to the Guangdong Wen's daily pig price curve, it can be seen that in March 2024, the overall price of Guangdong Wen's pig is a shock and slow rise, after 2 small ups and downs in the first half of the month, and after 5 days of continuous rise in the middle of the month, it began to fall and rise slightly, and the price adjustment was frequent throughout the month, with a total of 20 price adjustments.
Among them, the highest price of three yuan miscellaneous on March 27, 2024 was 8.5 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.2 yuan from the previous month, and the lowest price of a single day was 7.4 yuan/jin on March 4-5, an increase of 0.3 yuan from the previous month, with a difference of 1.1 yuan/jin between high and low prices, and the range narrowed slightly. Of the 31 days in March, 17 days were in the $7 range and 14 days were in the $8 range.
According to the average price of Guangdong Wen's daily pigs, the price of Guangdong Wen's three-yuan miscellaneous pigs in March 2024 was 7.89 yuan/catty, an increase of 0.5 yuan month-on-month, an increase of 6.77%, a month-on-month increase for 2 consecutive months, the highest price in the past 4 months, a year-on-year decrease of 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 2.59%, a year-on-year decline for 11 consecutive months, and a decline of less than 8 yuan for 5 consecutive months.
Third, the cost and benefit
● Pig feed ratio
According to the weekly data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the national pig grain price ratio in March 2024 was 6.04, down 1.04% month-on-month, ending three consecutive months of month-on-month increases, and up 13.32% year-on-year, up three consecutive months of year-on-year increases.
● Comparison between free-range pig breeding and large-scale breeding
In March 2024, the cost per head of free-range pigs was 2,056 yuan, down 3.7% month-on-month, down 9.1% year-on-year, year-on-year for 6 consecutive months, the lowest cost in the past 23 months, and the average cost of heads increased by 158 yuan compared with the lowest cost of 1,898 yuan in February 2022.
In March 2024, the cost per head of large-scale breeding was 1,984 yuan, down 0.5% month-on-month, down month-on-month for 7 consecutive months, the lowest cost in nearly 22 months, down 11.5% year-on-year, down year-on-year for 6 consecutive months, and the average cost per head increased by 93 yuan compared with the lowest cost of 1,891 yuan in February 2022. The cost of large-scale farming has been lower than the cost of free-range farming for 29 consecutive months, and the gap between the two has narrowed.
In March 2024, the net loss of free-range pigs was 70 yuan per head, a loss for 15 consecutive months, and the net profit of large-scale breeding was 66 yuan per head in March 2024, making a profit for 2 consecutive months.
Fourth, the later forecast
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said at a press conference on the operation of the agricultural and rural economy in the first quarter of 2024 that for the later trend, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently organized experts, industry associations and key enterprises to conduct special consultations.
It is believed that with the gradual emergence of the effect of pig production capacity, the number of sows that can reproduce, the number of medium and large pigs and the number of newborn piglets are showing a downward trend, and the relationship between supply and demand in the pig market will be further improved in the second quarter, and pig breeding may turn losses into profits.
From the perspective of the number of sows that can reproduce, at the end of March, the national breeding sow herd was 39.92 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, equivalent to 102.4% of the normal number of 39 million sows, which is in the green and reasonable area of capacity control.
From the perspective of medium and large pig inventory, the number of medium and large pig herds in national scale farms at the end of March decreased by 3% year-on-year. The number of pigs slaughtered in 2 months corresponds to the number of pigs slaughtered in 2 months, which indicates that the number of pigs on the market will decrease in the second quarter.
In terms of the number of newborn piglets, the number of newborn piglets began to decrease from October 2023, and the decline will stop and rebound in March 2024. During this period, the number of newborn piglets decreased by 4.9% compared to the same period last year. Combined with the 6-month fattening cycle and the seasonal strengthening of consumption, the situation of loose supply in the pig market will be alleviated in the future.
Recently, the grassroots reflect the phenomenon of pig pressure and secondary fattening has increased, taking this opportunity, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reminds the majority of farmers to scientifically arrange production, maintain a reasonable rhythm of listing, and slaughter in a timely manner when the weight of pigs is appropriate, so as to reduce market risks.