They are all talking about the economic winter, the money is hard to earn, and the job is hard to find, however, what is puzzling is that the tourism market in the past two years has been extremely hot. From the barbecue in Zibo last year, to Harbin at the beginning of this year, and then to the spicy tang in Tianshui, Gansu some time ago, it has attracted a large number of tourists.
The May Day holiday is coming, and according to the tourism market situation, this year's May Day is also destined to be a hot holiday for tourism. From the May Day train ticket sales, that is, "second light" rushed to the hot search, it is not difficult to predict the mode of everyone in the major scenic spots at that time.
This raises the question: Is it really a lack of money or a fake lack of money? What is the logic behind the "tourism boom"? How to transform "urban traffic" into "urban competitiveness"?
Why is the tourism market hot when the economic situation is not good?
The epidemic in the past three years has changed our lives, including many people's outlook on life and consumption. Traditional education requires us to set lofty goals and have a long-term vision, while a life of going with the flow and being at ease with the situation is considered negative, but after the epidemic, everyone began to have an epiphany: live in the moment and have fun in time.
At the same time, the expectation of the economic situation will deteriorate, and consumption will contract, especially for large consumption and investment such as houses and cars, and will become conservative and cautious, and then the urgent demand for tourism consumption will become greater. After all, life is stressful now, and whether you have money or not, you want to find an opportunity to go out and change your mood.
In addition, according to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2023, the population aged 60 and above in mainland China exceeded 296 million. As the elderly population in mainland China increases year by year, its consumption capacity and consumer demand are also increasing. Many seniors choose to enjoy life after retirement, and travel has become an important way for them to relax and exchange feelings.
In short, due to the monotony of life and the increased pressure, people are full of curiosity about the outside world. "Traveling is to see the places that others are tired of from the places where you are tired of staying. "The thirst for adventure to get out and find something new even if you don't have the money has fueled the boom in the travel market.
Splashing traffic does not bring real urban wealth
Internet celebrity cities emerge in an endless stream, and they often have some trigger points and characteristics that can resonate, which is grounding, which is what we often call fireworks, where the scene is closely related to people's lives, and people are willing to participate and experience.
However, tourism's contribution to the local economy is mainly realized through tourism consumption, which is often short-lived and one-off. Therefore, we must recognize that a boom in tourism does not represent the development of the economy as a whole.
First of all, the "Internet celebrity city" is destined to be short-lived. In the spring of 2023, the barbecue in Zibo, Shandong Province exploded, receiving more than 4.8 million foreign tourists. According to the estimation of spending 350 yuan per person per day and staying for two days, foreign tourists brought 3.36 billion yuan of tourism income to Zibo in March. However, this popularity did not last long. After the "May Day" holiday, the heat of Zibo barbecue gradually "cooled down".
Second, economic data says it all. According to the data, in 2023, Harbin's annual GDP will only be 557.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of only 3.1%, ranking at the bottom of the 15 sub-provincial cities in the country. At the same time, the annual GDP of Zibo, Shandong Province was 456.179 billion yuan, with a growth rate of only 5.5%. It's good to have traffic, but traffic is not everything, at least it can't affect the rise and fall of a city.
It is unrealistic to rely solely on cultural tourism to drive economic growth, or even expect it to explode overnight and make a city "change its life against the sky". Conversely, if over-reliance on tourism is exclusive, it can lead to fluctuations and instability in the local economy. If there is a problem in the tourism industry, it will have a huge impact on the local economy.
The local Internet celebrity cultural tourism is booming, but people are fleeing?
Recently, various provinces and cities across the country have successively released data on permanent residents. In 2023, the two provinces with the largest population declines were Henan and Shandong, with a decrease of 570,000 and 398,000, respectively. At one time, Henan and Shandong provinces were once considered to be the most populous provinces, but now they are lagging behind in terms of population growth.
Although there are many reasons for this, such as a large population base, serious involution, and a single industrial structure that cannot retain young talents, these will lead to the problem of population outflow more serious.
Generally speaking, the population flow conforms to the law that people go with production and people go to higher places, and the differences in industrial structure and economic development level are the main factors driving population flow. In provinces such as Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Jiangsu, population growth is more obvious in the national census.
Contrary to what people expected, the provinces that have given birth to Internet celebrity cities have seen slower population growth or even decline. For example, Changsha, known as a "livable city", has not spread to the entire Hunan Province, with a population loss of 360,000, and Gansu Province, which has become no longer transparent due to the "Tianshui Malatang", has a population decrease of 265,000.
This also means that the mechanical growth brought about by migration is increasingly becoming the core driving force for the increase and decrease of the resident population in various places. So, how to effectively attract people and retain people with the city's style, rather than pursuing short-term prosperity, is the direction of local governments.
Cultural tourism economy, short-term cultural tourism, long-term economy. For cities, the direct benefits brought by popularity are important, but it is even more important to take advantage of the situation to enrich consumption scenarios, extend the industrial chain, drive industrial development, and lay a solid foundation for urban development. After all, the attractiveness of a city to tourists and to talents and enterprises ultimately depends on the city's industrial base and development prospects.
How does a city go from "Internet celebrity" to "everlasting popularity"?
It is difficult to become an Internet celebrity city, and even more difficult is to become popular. Although traffic is also productivity in the Internet era, if you want to make the city popular and achieve long-termism, it requires multiple factors such as the city's comprehensive strength, development concept, and cultural heritage to support each other.
An entrepreneur may have more motivation to understand deeply because of the popularity of a city, but if he wants to invest, he will definitely be very cautious and go to the field to investigate the maturity of the local business environment, the service awareness and level of government departments, as well as the level of urban construction and public security.
Among them, industry is a crucial factor for a city to achieve "long-term red". Industry is the economic lifeblood of a city, and it is the main way for a city to provide employment, create wealth and enhance competitiveness. While developing tourism, local governments also need to focus on the development of other industries, especially those that can bring long-term stability to the local economy.
At present, the Internet celebrity city craze is still continuing, and it is impossible to predict who will be the next "lucky one". What cities can do is to do a good job in long-term planning and enhance their competitiveness, and on the other hand, to do a good job in marketing and publicity, and wait for the flowers to bloom.
For cities, their high-quality industrial base and public service facilities are far more likely to make people identify with them for a long time than beautiful photos and short videos on the Internet.