Preface
Shu Han was a force to be reckoned with during the Three Kingdoms period, however, its history eventually ended in defeat at the hands of Cao Wei.
Now, historians have begun to discuss a new question: if Shu Han did not carry out the Northern Expedition, but devoted himself to the development of the south, how would its fate be different?
The southern part of the country is dangerous and rich in resources, and if Shu Han can seize this opportunity and make every effort to develop the south, it may rewrite the course of history. Let's dive into the truth behind this assumption.
The determination of the Northern Expedition
In 228 AD, 300,000 troops under Zhuge Liang marched out of Qishan and started the great cause of the Northern Expedition to Cao Wei. However, this decision was too risky. The Shu Han Dynasty had only respite from the heavy blows of the Battle of Yiling, and the national strength had not yet fully recovered.
In contrast, Cao Wei has already entered a period of recuperation. The population and army size are several times that of Shu Han, and the economic strength is far ahead. What's more, Zhuge Liang does not have fierce generals like Huo Quzhi and Wei Qing.
Even transporting grain and grass was a big problem, and the Qinling Road was rugged and steep, which made the Shu army repeatedly blocked in the Northern Expedition. From any point of view, Zhuge Liang's chances of winning this Northern Expedition are less than thirty percent. But he was still desperate and determined to disrupt Cao Wei's development.
Zhuge Liang knew that Shu Han's strength was far inferior to Cao Wei's, but he also knew that if Cao Wei was allowed to develop all the way, Shu Han would eventually be difficult to exist independently.
The strength of Cao Wei would not only crush Shu Han, but also threaten the entire anti-Cao alliance. Therefore, Zhuge Liang had no choice but to make a desperate bet and use the Northern Expedition to disrupt Cao Wei's pace and win the opportunity for Shu Han to compete for the world.
This determination stems from Zhuge Liang's accurate grasp of the overall situation. He had insight into the grim situation of Shu Han's internal and external troubles, and understood that decisive action must be taken to save Shu Han's prospects.
Although the odds of winning were slim, he would rather gamble than watch Shu Han fall. This determination to sacrifice one's life for righteousness is undoubtedly admirable.
Inner and outer diseases
The reason why Zhuge Liang made such a bet was that the internal contradictions in Shu Han were becoming increasingly intensified, and the external threat was also growing. Shu Han is composed of Jingzhou factions, northern factions, Yizhou factions, and minority factions, which have always been incompatible.
Only Liu Bei's personal charm can unite them temporarily. But Liu Bei is dead, factional struggles broke out again, and some people even stole power and defected to Cao Wei.
To make matters worse, the people of Shu no longer call themselves Han Chinese, and they have lost their identification with the Shu Han regime. Although Zhuge Liang temporarily suppressed the civil strife, he knew that this contradiction would intensify sooner or later.
Once civil strife breaks out, Shu Han will inevitably fall into a divided situation, and even if Cao Wei does not come to attack at that time, Shu Han itself will be difficult to continue. At the same time, Cao Wei developed rapidly in recuperation, and his population and army had surpassed Shu Han several times.
The strength of Cao Wei would not only crush Shu Han, but also threaten the entire anti-Cao alliance. If Cao Wei is allowed to develop, Shu Han will be unable to compete with it, and will eventually become a vassal of Cao Wei.
Zhuge Liang knew this very well, so he had no choice but to make a desperate bet and use the Northern Expedition to disrupt Cao Wei's pace. He understood that if he could not take decisive action before Cao Wei developed to the point of unstoppability, Shu Han and even the entire anti-Cao alliance would be difficult to survive. This sense of crisis is the root of Zhuge Liang's determination to go on the Northern Expedition.
The Siege of Southern Xinjiang
In the face of internal and external troubles, why did Zhuge Liang not choose to develop southern Xinjiang but gambled on the Northern Expedition? The reason was the various difficulties in developing southern Xinjiang. The first is the limitation of the geographical environment.
The Qinling Road was rugged and difficult to travel, and even if Shu Han reclaimed more grain in southern Xinjiang, it would be difficult to transport it to the north. At that time, the Han Dynasty was able to directly take the Central Plains, all relying on the waterway transportation of the ancient Han water. Unfortunately, after the Wudu earthquake, this route was also cut off.
The second is the ancestral home of the barbarians in the southern Xinjiang region. The local people often live in clans and do not listen to anyone. Coupled with the language and cultural barriers, it is almost impossible to live in peace with them.
More importantly, the coverage rate of primeval forests in southern Xinjiang is extremely high, poisonous insects and beasts are everywhere, and miasma is pervasive. If you want to reclaim this area, you need to cut down forests on a large scale, build roads, and hunt down predators, which is a huge investment in the early stage.
The last hidden danger is the existence of Sun Wu. Sun Wu not only controlled Jiaozhou, which was close to southern Xinjiang, but also worked there for many years. Once Shu Han reclaimed southern Xinjiang, it would inevitably clash with the local scholar forces, which would also attract Sun Wu's attack.
In this way, Shu Han will be caught in a two-front battle with the local people and Sun Wu, and is destined to be overwhelmed. In contrast, the all-or-nothing Northern Expedition to Cao Wei was a shortcut. Although the odds of victory are slim, at least they will not get entangled with multiple forces.
Zhuge Liang knew that the key to the survival of Shu Han was whether he could turn the situation around in a limited time, rather than wasting his efforts in southern Xinjiang. Therefore, he resolutely chose the difficult but necessary path of the Northern Expedition.
The hardships of the Northern Expedition
Although the determination has been made, Zhuge Liang's road to the Northern Expedition was not smooth. The first four Northern Expeditions failed to achieve significant results due to difficulties in transporting grain and grass. The road to the Qinling Mountains is rugged and difficult, and every step is a test.
Zhuge Liang even thought about giving up starting from Qinling many times and attacking Sun Wu from the east road instead. But he finally persevered, because of practical reasons, Sun Wu was an important member of the anti-Cao alliance, and if he attacked Sun Wu first, the alliance would definitely collapse.
Zhuge Liang knew that if the Northern Expedition failed, the accumulation of ten years in Shu Han would be in vain. But he also understood that if he could not take decisive action before Cao Wei developed to the point of unstoppability, Shu Han and even the entire anti-Cao alliance would be difficult to survive. So he would rather gamble than watch Shu Han fall.
It was not until the Fifth Northern Expedition that Zhuge Liang made up his mind to settle in the north and no longer transport grain across the Qinling Mountains. It's a pity that the sky does not obey people's wishes, Zhuge Liang's qi has been exhausted, and the five Northern Expeditions have failed to achieve a decisive victory.
But it was the Northern Expedition of Zhuge Liang and his descendants that won 30 years of precious time for Shu Han and created the most glorious stroke in the history of Shu Han. These thirty years, although they finally ended with the demise of Shu Han, achieved Zhuge Liang's immortality.
epilogue
Zhuge Liang's determination to go north to Cao Wei stemmed from his accurate grasp of the overall situation. He saw the grim situation of internal contradictions and external threats in Shu Han, and recognized the difficulties in developing southern Xinjiang, so he gambled on the national fortune and the Northern Expedition to the Central Plains.
Although this gamble ultimately failed, it won Shu Han a precious thirty years. It is these thirty years of glory that have made the story of Shu Han pass down through the ages, and let Zhuge Liang's wisdom be remembered in the annals of history.
In the face of internal and external troubles, the development of southern Xinjiang is not the best policy, and the northern expedition to Cao Wei is the shortcut. Zhuge Liang's decision not only shows his foresight, but also demonstrates his selfless dedication to the country and the nation. Even if he failed to dominate the world in the end, Zhuge Liang's determination and courage will always be worthy of admiration by future generations.
His resourcefulness and determination not only allowed Shu Han to stand tall in adversity for decades, but also left an eternal spiritual wealth for the Chinese nation. This is the greatness of Zhuge Liang, and the reason why he will always be admired by future generations.