"A big yang line, thousands of troops come to meet". On April 29, A-shares rose in volume, with more than 4,400 stocks in the two cities rising, and the turnover of 1,211.1 billion yuan hit the second highest in the year. Vanke A is even more rare, a huge number of large orders have been blocked, Vanke once soared by nearly 20%, and Vanke's domestic bonds generally rose. At the same time, the A-share real estate sector rose by more than 6%, and the Hong Kong domestic real estate sector soared by more than 9%. The most important thing is that the amount of Vanke's daily limit has also reached the maximum since the Baowan dispute. Not only Vanke, but also real estate stocks have exploded almost across the board. More than 20 shares of Huaxia Fortune, Rongsheng Development, Dalong Real Estate, Gemdale Group, etc. It is worth noting that on April 29, northbound funds once again bought 10.892 billion yuan on a net basis today. Among them, the Shanghai Stock Connect net purchase was 4.535 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen Stock Connect net purchase was 6.358 billion yuan. According to statistics, northbound funds have increased their positions by more than 38 billion yuan for 4 consecutive days.
The property market policies around the country are frequently favorable
Tianfeng Securities believes that on April 26 and April 29, the real estate sector rebounded sharply for two consecutive days, mainly or by foreign institutions to release bullish views, and the northbound funds had a substantial net inflow; Short-term policies may gather stock to go to the warehouse, the government has established a collection and storage agency, the stock is expected to be renewed, and there is room for insurance companies to benefit.
In terms of policy, Chengdu introduced a real estate optimization policy on April 28 to relax purchase restrictions. On April 27, Hainan issued a new policy to support urban renewal planning and land use security. On April 26, Nanjing plans to relax the conditions for settlement, and those who have a legal and stable residence and are not registered can directly settle down. On April 25, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced that the transfer of rural collective land will not be subject to LAT for the time being. On April 23, Shenzhen launched the "Xin Jia" housing replacement activity to promote the exchange of second-hand houses for the new.
Small essays such as "diluting the three major projects" catalyze the real estate market
In terms of funds, the central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out in the form of interest rate bidding on April 29, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%. Wind data shows that 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired on the same day, so the maturity volume was fully hedged in a single day.
Today, there are even small compositions such as "diluting the three major projects". The three major projects refer to the "three major projects" such as accelerating the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages. Some institutions believe that the three major projects are the key work of this year and even in the next few years, but because the new "sitting on the ground" model is still in the exploration period, the amount of urban village transformation in 2024 may not be very large. However, the gradual increase in the scale of construction in the future is still a high probability event.
Foreign investment has accelerated the pace of entering the market
Northbound funds have increased their positions for 4 consecutive days, with a total of more than 38 billion yuan. The signal of foreign investment entering the market is also relatively obvious. According to the Shanghai Securities News, the Institute of International Finance (IIF) recently released a report showing that in March, foreign investors increased their emerging market portfolios by about $32.7 billion, which is the fifth consecutive month of net inflows of foreign funds into emerging markets. Among them, China's stock market and bond market received net foreign purchases of US$1.7 billion and US$2.1 billion respectively. This is the first time since June last year that both China's stock and bond markets have received net foreign buying.
Prior to this, a number of foreign financial institutions have successively upgraded their ratings on the Chinese market. Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific Chief Equity Strategist Timothy Moe and Goldman Sachs Chief China Equity Strategist Liu Jinjin advised investors to remain overweight on A-shares at a media conference earlier this week. International investor sentiment and risk appetite for Chinese equities have improved. ”
Sunil Tirumale, chief strategist for global emerging markets equities at UBS, also upgraded the MSCI China Index to overweight earlier this week. In March, Morgan Stanley, an international investment bank, said in a report that global funds are returning to the Chinese stock market, and some regional active funds have begun to increase their holdings in growth and technology companies in the Chinese market.
In its outlook for the A-share market in the second quarter, Nomura Orient International Securities said that A-shares are expected to continue to rebound in the second quarter, mainly because high-frequency data verifies the further stabilization of China's economy and provides an opportunity for valuation repair for most industries. At the same time, the changes in the monetary policies of major overseas economies have gradually turned hawkish compared with the expectations of global investors at the beginning of the year, driving some funds from the high-valuation market to return to the low-valuation market by a small amount.
Brokerage research report: restrictive policies in core cities may be further lifted
Founder Securities believes that the total market demand is supported, and the central government attaches great importance to resolving real estate risks, and the subsequent restrictive policies in core cities may be further lifted, and the real estate sector is expected to gradually transition from the policy-driven left market to the right side of fundamental support.
China Merchants Securities believes that the current market sentiment may focus on real estate from a broader style switching perspective. In the past, people's livelihood, risk prevention, and economy were the three important dimensions that policy focused on, and now these three dimensions may unanimously point to further easing. From the current market sentiment, the market's expectations for further policy efforts at both ends of supply and demand may be strengthened, which may not be the same as the previous situation of only participating in the real estate and industrial chain stock policy game, and a wider range of market participants may be difficult not to pay attention to real estate due to the potential allocation needs of style switching.
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Text/Beijing Youth Daily reporter Zhu Kaiyun
Editor/Fan Hongwei