In the past 3 years, the focus of the domestic agricultural machinery industry has been the "national three to national four" emission upgrade, from the policy publicity to the implementation in 2022, due to the increase in the price of national four products, the increase in the cost of use, coupled with the user's concerns about the reliability of national four products and other factors, resulting in a serious overdraft of the tractor, harvester and other power machinery market, which has greatly affected the market sales in 2023.
Taking large and medium-sized drag products as an example, the overall market sales will decline by more than 40% in 2023, the industry reshuffle will intensify, and the fate of small and micro enterprise brands will hang by a thread. From the point of view of sales structure, the sales volume of 25-100 horsepower medium trailer still occupies an absolute proportion, and the sales volume of large trailer products above 100 horsepower accounts for a little more than 3 percent. Breaking it down again, you will find that the 2023 mid-trailer sales champion horsepower segment has switched from the 60-80 horsepower segment in 2020-2022 to the 50-60 horsepower segment.
What does this change confirm?
Weichai Lovol M504-3B tractor
From the perspective of internationalization, the German Agricultural Association predicts that by 2025, the annual output value of the global agricultural machinery will reach about 1.6 trillion yuan, of which the output value of the two product categories of tractors and combine harvesters will be about 1.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 73%, of which tractors account for about 45%, which shows that the tractor industry plays an important role in the global agricultural machinery system.
Go domestic. According to statistics, in recent years, the annual output value of domestic tractors exceeds 50 billion yuan, and the indirect output value is about 80 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the total output value of the agricultural machinery industry.
From the perspective of industrial scale, although the current sales volume of the mainland tractor market has been in the leading position in the world in terms of scale, but the sales volume does not mean that the strength is strong, nor does it mean that the profit is high, and there are too obvious outstanding problems in the development of the industry at this stage, that is, the key core technology innovation ability is not strong, and the localization of high-end products is insufficient, especially the hydraulic components used in high-power tractors, gearboxes and intelligent operating systems, CVTs, etc., there is a large gap and import dependence, and the road to development is a long way to go.
道依茨法尔3W-N系列 CD504-N（G4）拖拉机
Looking at the changes in the sales volume of the domestic tractor market, we will clearly find that the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy has played a huge role, for many years, large and medium tractors have been the key products of subsidies, under the dual role of policy pull and rigid demand, the amount of social ownership has increased year after year, and the horsepower segment has been extended year by year. In the past 10 years, the domestic large and medium-sized drag market has been hovering at a low level after experiencing a sharp increase in sales in 2013 and a high operation stage from 2014 to 2016. From 2017 to 2019, there was a sharp decline for three consecutive years, and there was a rebound in 2020, and the main driving force was due to the multiple policies under the epidemic, rather than the endogenous force of the market itself. In 2021, the market will fall sharply, and in 2022, due to the impact of the emission upgrade of "China III to China IV", the market will overdraft sales, achieving a new sales high in recent years. There will be a sharp decline in 2023, and the market is still running at a low level from the beginning of 2024 to the present.
All kinds of signs show that the domestic tractor market is increasingly showing the characteristics of stock competition, the market is slowing down the operation trend is obvious, coupled with the introduction of the national subsidy reduction policy for low-end tractors this year, the follow-up market heat cooling has become a foregone conclusion.
From the analysis of the development trend of the domestic agricultural machinery market, with the development of the industry into the deep water period of upgrading and transformation, the characteristics of stock competition are becoming more and more obvious, the traditional agricultural machinery category is showing the characteristics of rapid reshuffle, the first to enter the brand centralized reshuffle is the high probability of the tractor industry, is rapidly entering the product quality and price to determine the life and death of the channel, now and even in the future, the core factor that determines whether consumers buy or not is only one, that is, "product power"! It can be predicted that the tractor category market must be in the reshuffle with the decline in market sales, and gradually recover in the process of survival of the fittest, get rid of the downward trend, and there will be a V-shaped turn. It can be seen that the domestic tractor market will usher in a stormy and changeable era.
沃得奥龙WD504-K(G4)轮式拖拉机
Let's talk about the technical issues of the emission upgrade of the national III and IV engines that are concerned by the industry.
The fundamental difference between China III and China IV engines is that China III engines mainly rely on increasing the fuel injection pressure of the engine to improve the adequacy of fuel combustion, while China IV engines need to introduce purification technology outside the engine, that is, using exhaust after-treatment technology to control emissions.
According to the data, China III upgrades China IV, and different emission control technologies are used in different power segments, and the increase cost is different. The main technical route used in the 37kW (50 horsepower) ≤ P<75kW (101) power section agricultural machinery is to install a particle trap (DPF), and the main technical route of the 75kW ≤P<130kW (177 horsepower) power section agricultural machinery is to install an oxidized catalytic converter (DOC) + particle trap (DPF), 130kW≤PThe main technical route of agricultural machinery in the < 560 kW (761 horsepower) power section is to install an oxidizing catalytic converter (DOC) + particle trap (DPF) + selective catalytic reduction device (SCR), and the upgrade cost of agricultural machinery accounts for about 10%-15% of the total cost. For agricultural machinery in the power range below 37kW, technically only need to further optimize the air intake and fuel injection systems, and the cost increase is not much.
东风DF504-MA(G4)轮式拖拉机
According to professional agricultural machinery technicians, the choice of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) means higher fuel consumption and shorter particulate trap (DPF) regeneration cycles, which will undoubtedly bring higher cost of use, while agricultural machinery manufacturers who choose the SCR strategy should consider the cost of urea consumption. On top of that, the potential costs of redesigning the model and testing the entire machine are also significant.
There are two main technical routes for the upgrade of China IV, route 1: DOC (oxidation catalyst) + DPF (diesel particle trap) + EGR (exhaust gas recirculation system), and route 2: DOC (oxidation catalyst) + DPF (diesel particle trap) + SCR (selective catalytic reduction technology, that is, the usual urea). At present, the international mainstream DOC+DPF fixes the aftertreatment system on the upper part of the diesel engine, which has good stability and is not easy to disassemble, such as John Deere. However, many domestic enterprises are installed on the side, which has relatively poor stability, but it is easy to disassemble by itself.
Knowing the key points of emission upgrades, let's explore the core reasons why 50 horsepower will occupy the main sales position of Zhongtuo in 2023, which can be summed up as the following three points:
50 horsepower is the tipping point for the "China IV" emission upgrade
"If you want to do a good job, you must first sharpen your tools", the product is always the ultimate weapon of market competition, in the final analysis, the 50 horsepower national four in the tow hot sales after all thanks to the reliable product. From the point of view of the technical route, 50 horsepower is the "critical point" of diesel engine emission upgrade, and when the diesel engine of 50 horsepower and below is "three to four", the appearance size is basically unchanged, and there is basically no impact on the main engine. But more than 50 horsepower diesel engine is not, due to the emission upgrade of the use of exhaust after-treatment equipment size changes, need to reserve a position in the after-treatment system in the whole machine, the upgraded national four agricultural machinery should theoretically be longer in length (so that the frame of the whole machine will change) or can also choose to increase the height, that is to say, more than 50 horsepower national four agricultural machinery not only engine modification, to redesign the structure of the whole machine, parts also need to re-arrange. Therefore, in the process of emission upgrading, the changes of products above 50 horsepower are larger, and there are more uncontrollable factors.
Dongfanghong MF504-5 (G4) wheeled tractor
The 50 horsepower "National IV" product is the most cost-effective in the middle trailer
The shape of the national IV emission of 50 horsepower and below the trailer product and the national three products has not changed, only need to replace the national IV engine that meets the emission standards, when the whole machine equipment is upgraded, the cost of change is mainly concentrated in the engine, other components, structure, etc. have not changed much, compared with more than 50 horsepower products, the cost increase is the most controllable, after the emission upgrade, the price increase is relatively low. That is to say, the 50-horsepower medium tow occupies the quality controllable advantage of the national IV engine, and occupies the advantage of high cost performance, and the hot sale is reasonable.
The 50 hp product uses a large working space
From the perspective of product use, the horsepower segment upgrade has always been the basic performance characteristics of the domestic tractor market, from single cylinder to multi-cylinder, from small horsepower to high horsepower, which is not only a direct manifestation of industrial progress, but also a direct demand for the increase in supporting power for agricultural machinery operations. In actual agricultural production, 50 horsepower in the tow is widely used, commonly used in the pull and pull not to say, in the Central Plains and mountainous areas, the power traction of small and medium-sized machinery is not a problem, in the case of continuous decline in purchasing power, the user chooses the product is of course a wise move.
In addition, judging from market performance and user feedback, the reliability test of domestic "national IV" tractor products is still at a critical stage, and the overall performance shift upgrade needs to be further improved.
Zoomlion Agricultural Machinery RD504 Wheeled Tractor
In 2024, the domestic tractor market test continues, the market overdraft effect is still unabated, coupled with the decline in user income and lack of confidence has affected the enthusiasm for investment. In the field of medium drag, only products with excellent quality, intelligent and efficient, and cost-effective can stand out.
Rigid demand determines market sales, and it can be boldly predicted that in 2024, 50 horsepower medium drag will still be favored by users.