[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.4.29
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively higher, and then showed a trend of opening higher and moving higher, with more than 4,300 stocks rising and falling less, with a half-day turnover of 738.6 billion and a net inflow of northbound funds of 12.717 billion.
This weekend, good news came one after another, no negative news interference, continuing last week's optimistic bullish atmosphere, the market is like a runner ready to sprint, ready to sprint on the track of technology, especially those that can always attract attention, they are not only my "favorite" all the time, but now they are the vane of the leading market. The Hong Kong stock market has forged ahead and officially stepped into the threshold of the technical bull market, and this vitality is undoubtedly an incentive for our side. And as the company's performance disclosure is coming to an end, it is like a big drama is about to start, and everything seems to be paving the way for the market to rise.
Looking back at last week, a subtle change in market style has emerged, with funds quietly shifting from traditional large-cap blue-chips, such as the banking sector, to a more dynamic technology growth zone. The lessons of history remind us that by keeping our finger on the pulse of the times, we must not miss out on those surprising revenue opportunities. Back then, in the golden age of real estate, the "Five Golden Flowers" led the way, the Internet tide hit, and the enterprises embracing the "Internet +" had the last laugh; in the spring of new energy, the lithium battery and photovoltaic industry chain made great plans. Now, with the wave of artificial intelligence surging, technology stocks are naturally standing on the center stage.
As long as the market can be stable above the annual line, our small abacus can be involved in the pullback and move with the market trend. For those of us who are ordinary investors, now is a good time to adjust our portfolios and focus more on technology growth sectors, not only to chase the current popularity, but also out of deep insight and confidence in future trends, in this new era led by cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, technology stocks are not only a barometer of market sentiment, but also a strong driver of long-term value growth.
From the perspective of sectors, real estate services, decoration and building materials, and real estate sectors led the gains today, while precious metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and energy sectors led the declines today.
From the perspective of capital, there is a net inflow of new energy, power equipment, and real estate, and a net outflow of the main force of the Belt and Road Initiative, Zhongzitou, and military-civilian integration.
From the perspective of the index, real estate equal rights, CNI real estate, and 800 real estate were among the top daily gainers, while the CSI upstream, mainland resources, and high-speed rail industries were the last in daily gains.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average, golden cross, 10-day, 20-day moving average, MACD indicator death fork, green column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross spread upward, J value peak, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle rail.
Analysis: In the short term, the index has broken through several short-term pressure levels, but the annual line is still hanging above, and it may be necessary for key sectors to continue to be weak to drive the market upward, and at the same time cooperate with the inflow of foreign capital to achieve a breakthrough on the upper annual line.
【Fundamentals & News】
38 fund managers have disclosed the first quarterly report of their broad-based ETFs, with a total net asset value of 1.21 trillion yuan for 211 broad-based ETFs, a year-on-year increase of more than 2 times. （ETF）
Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center released the world's first full-size humanoid robot "Tiangong" with pure electric drive and anthropomorphic running. (Robot)
Affected by factors such as equity market volatility and poor money-making effect, the scale of public FOF, as a major asset allocation tool, has dropped for three consecutive years. （FOF）
Since the beginning of this year, nearly forty percent of the net value of QDII funds has retreated, and even 20 QDII funds have fallen by more than 20%. （DQII）
· IDC reported that in the first quarter of this year, shipments in China's smartphone market increased by 6.5% year-on-year. (Consumer Electronics)
China and the United States reached a five-point consensus and announced that the first meeting of the China-US Intergovernmental Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence will be held. (Robot)
Seven departments jointly issued the "Detailed Rules for the Implementation of Automobile Trade-in Subsidy". (Consumption)
Chengdu liberalizes the house purchase policy, and does not review the qualifications for buying a house without lottery numbers. (Real Estate)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.35, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Component Index: P/E ratio of 21.20, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 27.88, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 43.74, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.84, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.34, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 22.59, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Real estate: Recently, the vane of the real estate market seems to have a new movement, Chengdu introduced a policy to cancel the notarization of commercial housing, and instead let real estate companies sell independently, which undoubtedly adds a touch of vitality to the market, at the same time, emphasizing the fairness of financial support, to ensure that real estate companies with different backgrounds can obtain the necessary funds blood, these measures are quietly promoting the adjustment and transformation of the industry.
In this context, developers are doing their best to activate the market and promote sales. Take Shenzhen as an example, some real estate projects directly play the banner of "house purchase bonus", using the allure of real money to attract the attention of buyers. This strategy of keeping up with market hotspots and providing substantial discounts in disguise not only shows the developer's keen insight into market demand, but also reflects the fierce competition in the industry. Similarly, the frequent use of large-scale promotions such as gifting high-end brand electric vehicles, as well as the practice of opening in batches and staging discount feasts in turn, are all designed to stand out in the buyer's market.
For us ordinary investors, these phenomena reveal several key messages. First of all, the real estate market is going through a period of deep adjustment, and real estate companies do not hesitate to use innovative and unprecedented promotional methods in order to destock and withdraw funds, which means that the market may be in a relatively favorable window period for buyers. Second, fine-tuning at the policy level, such as Chengdu's initiative, aims to promote the steady and healthy development of the market, reduce administrative intervention, and increase the market's own ability to adjust, which provides a new perspective for long-term investment. As investors, we need to keep up with policy guidance, gain insight into industry trends, and maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude, looking for those real estate companies that can seize opportunities in the midst of challenges, and perhaps we can find "golden opportunities" worth investing in in this tide of market adjustment.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: CSI 300, mainland consumption.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Ready to get off: 50AH, GEM, Kechuang 50, 800 Pharmaceutical, CSI Liquor, CSI Securities Insurance, CS Electronics, Hong Kong Market, Hong Kong Small and Medium, China Internet.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.