As we all know, supply and demand determine commodity prices, supply exceeds demand, the probability of price decline is large, supply is less than demand, and the possibility of price increase is higher, so if you want to clearly grasp the trend of Beijing Building, in addition to studying macro policies, housing price changes, house location, self-occupied attributes, advantages and disadvantages, the supply situation is also a category that should be considered.
In the Beijing market, I can think of a few data that reflect the "supply".
1. The amount of new land supply.
In the past two years, the supply of high-quality (good location) land in first- and second-tier cities has increased significantly, and the "2024 Beijing Commercial Residential Land Promotion Conference" held on March 28 has promoted 87 parcels of land in one go, totaling 540 hectares, 14 more than last year, an increase of nearly 2 percent, and these lands are expected to enter the market this year and next year.
In addition, the Planning and Self-Planning Commission also released information on Beijing's stock of residential land on January 18 this year, a total of 449 projects, of which 40% have not yet been sold.
2. New housing stock.
The following table is the online signing of new houses in Beijing in April according to Uncle Jie's statistics, summarizing several characteristics.
First, the wording of these 152 projects is "mainstream new projects", which means that it does not represent the number of all new projects in Beijing, not counting the "old difficulties" and unpopular properties sold in the past few years, the volume of these mainstream projects is less than 500 sets, so there are more than 70,000 mainstream new houses on the market, and more than 50% of these new projects are signed online That's right, there are more than 30,000 sets that haven't been sold, and that's not counting the new land that was supplied last year but has not yet entered the market, as well as the 87 parcels mentioned above, not to mention the new projects that entered the market this year, the opening poster record is exaggerated and exaggerated, the actual sales volume is divided by 2, and then divided by 2 abounds, a 900+ set of volume is recognized by everyone as a hot-selling project, and only 200 sets were sold at the opening, and the removal rate is less than 3%.
3. The number of second-hand housing listings.
Up to now, the total number of listings in the background + front desk of Beijing's large intermediary second-hand housing is 172,000 sets (including parking spaces, commercial offices, basements, etc.), some friends said that it was not 173,000 sets a while ago, this amount is not down, but I want to say that you have to look at the magnitude, when the market was good in the past, this number was 90,000 and 100,000, in addition, the stock became less in the past, the price will stabilize, and now the first volume can not rush, and secondly, the market reasons are good, lack of confidence, plus** PUA and other reasons, and the transaction has been declining, the backpack market has come to an end, and the market is difficult to say that it is improving.
4. Expectation of second-hand housing stock.
In addition to the existing new and second-hand houses, there will be some incremental housing into the market in the future, such as the supply of more than 100 projects of limited competition housing, as well as the supply of 75,500 units of self-occupied commercial housing as of June 2017, not counting the resettlement housing built in the central urban area in recent years in order to relieve the population, and the housing will also enter the market one after another.
So seeing this, I want to say that the current market environment is completely different from the past, and the oversupply will also affect everyone, for the change in the demand for buying a house, choose a better house to live in, or in a bunch of homogeneous communities, the horizontal comparison of choosing a house with a clear advantage at a certain point may become the mainstream demand in the future, replacing the choice and status of the increase, and the commercial housing will gradually return to consumption and use value.
That's all for this issue of vernacular second-hand housing, see you next week!