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April is coming to an end, the May Day holiday is about to be cashed, in the domestic pig market, pig prices are not as good as expected, the market continues to be weak, the market is difficult to find the support of the rise, the price has been "hit hard", so, what happened to the market?
On April 27, 2024, the price of pigs fell by 0.08 yuan/kg, and the price of lean pigs fell to 14.86 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs showed a trend of "4 consecutive declines", and the center of gravity of the market gradually moved downward.
At present, in the 28 provinces and municipalities monitored by the national sample, the price of pig slaughter hovers at 14~15.8 yuan/kg, the lowest price in Xinjiang, the highest price in Guangdong, and the average price of live pigs slaughtered in Shaanxi, Guangxi and Hubei is 14.85 yuan/kg, among them, in the mainstream areas of the north and south, the price of Heijiliao region is 14.35~14.6 yuan, the price of Shanxi and Hebei is 14.9~15.05 yuan, and the price of Shaanxi and Gansu is 14.6~14.85 yuan. In Sichuan and Chongqing, the price is 14.6~14.7 yuan, in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 15.25~15.7 yuan/kg, Shandong, Anhui is 15.1~15.15 yuan, the price in the two lakes is 14.85~15.1 yuan, the price in Henan is 15.05 yuan, and in South China, the price in Liangguang is 14.85~15.8 yuan/kg!
From this point of view, on April 27, pig prices showed a downward trend, and in the north and south regions, the range of pig price declines increased significantly, and the market showed a comprehensive decline!
At present, the logic supporting the decline in pig prices is as follows:
At this stage, the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is 27.48%, the lack of increment in the orders of slaughtering enterprises, the low operating rate of operating rates, and the limited demand for daily procurement of live pigs, in particular, due to the insufficient price difference of slaughtering enterprises in stages, the loss pressure of slaughtering enterprises is greater, and the mentality of taking advantage of the situation to reduce prices is stronger;
Second, the breeding end of the slaughter is relatively positive! Due to the rise in temperature, the demand for fat pigs has deteriorated, the price of fat pigs has continued to fall, the price of standard fat pigs has increased, the breeding end of the slaughter is relatively positive, retail investors and group pig enterprises have concentrated slaughter operations, and in the southern market, due to the frequent precipitation in the early pig farm, the rhythm of pig slaughter has been blocked, the completion of the slaughter plan this month is poor, and the group pig enterprises have a certain increase in the phenomenon of selling pigs. However, due to the lack of consumption support, the downstream traders are weak in receiving goods, and it is difficult for many group pig enterprises to be slaughtered, and the phenomenon of price reduction and volume has increased!
Therefore, under the multi-party bearishness, due to the strong mentality of the breeding end, the consumption has not yet been realized, and the superposition, the inversion of the standard fertilizer price spread has intensified the cautious sentiment of the second breeding, and after the previous heavy rainfall in the southern region, the risk of pig farm disease has increased, the market has a strong sentiment of selling pigs, and the pig price has continued to fall!
As for the prospect of pig prices, rationally, near May Day, in some areas, due to the breeding end of the slaughter pressure fence is not large, the market has a certain price mentality, and as the festival is approaching, the downstream supermarkets and wholesale market activities increase, the downstream white goods demand or will increase, slaughtering enterprises before the festival There is still a slight opportunity to increase the operating rate, it is expected that the pig price is still expected to rise in the short term, however, due to the relatively sufficient supply of pork in the market, the breeding end of the pig slaughter is positive, and the space for the rebound of pig prices may be extremely limited! Focus on the changes in the slaughter level of the group's pig enterprises and the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises!
Pig prices have been "hit hard" and "dreams are broken" before the holiday? Attached: Pig prices on April 27!