Recently, wheat prices have shown a precipitous downward trend, in the domestic wheat producing areas, Shandong, Hebei and Henan regions, the mainstream wheat listing price fell to 1.3 yuan / catty, and the quotation of milling enterprises in many places fell to about 1.275 ~ 1.29 yuan / catty......
Judging from market feedback, at present, the national average price of wheat is 1.303 yuan/jin, the average price of Shandong is 1.301 yuan, the average price of Hebei is 1.294 yuan, and the average price of Henan is 1.308 yuan/jin.
However, after a brief storm in the market, wheat showed a sideways trend, however, the market is still facing pressure from many sides, and the price has gone from falling to rising or difficult to cash!
On the one hand, the follow-up of wheat demand lacks substantial benefits!
Although, with the arrival of the May Day holiday, the downstream market may have sporadic replenishment demand, supported by the holiday effect, in the short term, wheat may have a rational pullback trend, but the rally may be difficult to sustain, and the market is still under pressure from the supply side!
Due to the influence of the price difference between wheat and corn, the use of wheat is relatively single, and flour has become the main consumption channel of wheat. With the further increase in temperature, the precipitation in the north and south regions will gradually increase, the difficulty of flour storage will also be greatly improved, the risk of mildew resurgence will intensify, and the demand for dealers to replenish the warehouse will also be more cautious, and milling enterprises are worried about the pressure of flour storage, and the operating rate will also run at a low level!
Of course, the purchase and sale of flour is in the off-season, and by the low price of corn, soybean meal has a downward trend, superimposed, domestic imports of low-priced corn and cereal flour are sufficient, the prospect of bran consumption is under pressure, in the off-season in the breeding industry, it is difficult for milling enterprises to carry out by-products, which further causes the pressure on the loss of flour enterprises, the operating rate is difficult to improve, and the consumption capacity of raw grain is also greatly reduced!
On the other hand, wheat supply fundamentals are looser!
In terms of imports, wheat imports in March increased by 34.2% year-on-year, and the monthly import level was about 1.78 million tons.
In terms of policy wheat rotation, due to the lack of consumer demand, previously, policy wheat was concentrated in rotation, but the unsold rate has increased significantly, the grain depot wheat production capacity is poor, the policy wheat rotation is still more active, and the pressure of strong market supply and weak demand is highlighted!
Therefore, under many factors, although the wheat market has stabilized, the market is still struggling!
At present, there is only more than half a month before the wheat harvest in Hubei, and the new wheat will also enter the stage of merging one after another. However, from the recent days, it is understood that in terms of grain storage and local grain sources, two-way purchase and sale of wheat, the transaction price of wheat bidding purchase before the 24 years is relatively firm, the price is about 2590~2640 yuan/ton, and the market estimates the price of new wheat is tentatively set at about 1.25 yuan/catty, and the wheat market still has a certain bottom support!
Personally, I believe that the wheat market may have limited room for further decline, and the market will pay attention to the expected changes in the new wheat production and the impact of the weather on wheat production!
Judging from the latest feedback from the market, on April 26, wheat "changed its face", and the listed prices of mainstream milling enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Henan regions stabilized in an all-round way!
In Shandong, milling enterprises, the listed price of wheat is generally 1.28~1.34 yuan/jin, of which, the quotation of Heze Tianbang and the western area of developed flour has stabilized at 1.28 yuan/jin, and the quotation of enterprises in many places is about 1.29~1.31 yuan/jin;
In the Hebei market, milling enterprises, the listed price of wheat is generally 1.285~1.33 yuan/jin, the price of Daimyo Wudeli is 1.285 yuan/jin, and the price of Jinshahe in Hebei is 1.29 yuan/jin;
Henan market: the listed price of wheat in milling enterprises is 1.275~1.325 yuan/jin, of which the price of Zhiqing flour is 1.275 yuan, and the mainstream price is 1.29~1.32 yuan/jin!
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