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In the corn market, corn has not stopped, but the risk of selling pressure on surplus grain at the grassroots level has gradually weakened, and the market may have limited room for further decline. In the wheat market, the price of wheat stopped falling, and the market showed a stable situation, but the rise still faced resistance! In the pig market, the pig price fell under pressure, the market bullish pre-holiday mentality has been loosened, the enthusiasm of the breeding end to sell pigs has rebounded, the order increment of slaughtering enterprises is not good, the operating rate is still low, and the pig price is weak!
Today is April 27th, and the prices of hogs, corn and wheat are updated after the price adjustment, and the analysis is as follows:
First, the corn is under pressure and continues to "grind the bottom"!
However, due to the sufficient inventory of the Northeast channel and the poor follow-up of demand, and the increase in the suspension of deep processing and maintenance in the North China market, the corn supply pattern still needs to be relaxed, and the spot quotation maintains a weak adjustment trend!
In terms of ports, due to the factor of corn price difference in Northeast China, the cost performance of grain source outgoing in South China has decreased, the corn inventory in northern ports is high, and it is difficult to increase orders.
In the northeast of the producing area, the grassroots surplus grain decreased, the grain source was transferred to the traders, the traders had a reluctant to sell mentality, the cost of building corn was higher, and the price sentiment still existed, however, the demand for follow-up was poor, the grain inventory of the enterprise was loose, and some traders did not send the corn smoothly, the subscription mentality became stronger, and the enterprise quotation was slightly weak!
Among them, in Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia, Jilin Xintianlong, Baicheng Meihua, Inner Mongolia Yipin, Suihua Haotian, Kailu Yuwang and Hailun Guotou, corn quotation fell 0.3~1 points, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia market, mainstream corn deep processing quotation at 1.075~1.195 yuan / catty!
In the North China market, with the grassroots concentration of the amount, the surplus grain gradually decreased, the amount of goods in front of the enterprise gradually decreased, however, the supply of grain is still loose, in particular, the operating rate of deep processing enterprises has declined, the company's products are not good, the supply of corn is relatively sufficient, and the mismatch of production and marketing, the corn quotation is weak!
Among them, in Shandong, Weifang Shengtai, Zouping Xiwang, Zhucheng Yuanfa, Zhucheng Xingmao, Yucheng Bowling Bao, Dezhou Heyang Biology and Weifang Tianli, Chenming Starch, etc., the price of enterprises fell by 0.2~0.5 points, and the mainstream corn price in Shandong was 1.09~1.24 yuan / catty!
Personally, I believe that with the reduction of surplus grain at the grassroots level, the risk of corn selling pressure is reduced, the right of traders to speak has rebounded, the grain source of enterprises to the factory has gradually decreased, and the corn spot may have a tendency to stop falling, however, due to the weakening of deep processing consumption capacity, some traders have high inventories, supply pressure still exists, and it is still difficult for corn to have a significant opportunity to improve, and the price will still be weak and stable!
Second, wheat prices stopped falling and stabilized!
In the wheat market, after the price fell sharply in the short term, the market sentiment gradually stabilized, and the cautious mentality of purchasing and selling has become stronger! Rationally, at present, flour consumption is in the off-season, flour purchase and sales are sluggish, enterprises are not confident in purchasing grain, and the bran goods are poor, and the bran quotation is constantly lowered, which further inhibits the level of wheat demand!
However, due to the low grain inventory of enterprises, the price of wheat has fallen sharply, and some enterprises have a certain replenishment operation, in particular, the new wheat can not be fully used, and it is still necessary to match the old wheat to improve the gluten, and some enterprises have a certain need for replenishment!
On the supply side, at present, the rotation of grain reserves is relatively positive, however, the pace of rotation or will gradually slow down, and the grassroots surplus grain and channel inventory bottomed out, the level of wheat circulation is average, although milling enterprises have the need to replenish the warehouse, but the difficulty of purchasing grain sources is weak, the mentality of buying and selling wait-and-see has been enhanced, and the spot quotation is stable!
Among them, in Shandong, the listed price of wheat of mainstream milling enterprises is 1.28~1.345 yuan/jin, the mainstream wheat price of Hebei is 1.285~1.3 yuan, the price of wheat in Henan market is 1.27~1.323 yuan/jin, and the price of mainstream enterprises in Anhui, Jiangsu and other places is 1.31~1.335 yuan/jin!
Third, the decline in hog prices has intensified!
In terms of live pigs, approaching May Day, the decline in pig prices has expanded, the market has shown a trend of "falling every festival", the center of gravity of domestic pig prices has shifted downward, and the pressure of production and marketing mismatch has been highlighted!
On the one hand, the breeding end of the fence mentality loosened, because the pig price is difficult to rise, the market price confidence weakened, in particular, the stage of the standard fertilizer price spread upside down highlighted, the risk of fat pig pressure is higher, retail and large-scale pig enterprises slaughter enthusiasm strengthened, the market pig circulation has increased significantly, especially, in the southern region, affected by the early precipitation, the pace of pig slaughter is slow, part of the head pig enterprise slaughter plan is poor, incremental pig sales are more positive!
On the other hand, the consumption is insufficient, the festival is difficult to appear, the downstream market stocking demand is poor, the north and south regions, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, the operating rate of sample slaughtering enterprises is 27.48%, the market maintains a low level, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are reduced, but the loss margin is high, and the mentality of price reduction is heating up!
According to data analysis, on April 27, the average price of lean pigs was 14.86 yuan/kg, and the north and south markets showed a general downward trend, and the center of gravity of pig prices moved down again!
However, from the grassroots feedback, in the northern region, large factories have a certain amount of shrinkage and price sentiment, in particular, only a few days from the May Day holiday, some farmers are still bullish on the level before the holiday, the slaughterhouse will also be short-term incremental pig collection, it is expected that the next 1~2 days, pig prices are likely to stop falling and rebound, however, due to the relatively positive slaughter of large pigs, the pork supply pattern is loose, it is expected that the pre-holiday pig price rise space is limited!