On June 26, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Blinken in Beijing. The international community will wait and see whether the two sides will lead international cooperation to address global issues and achieve win-win results, or whether they will antagonize each other and even break out into conflict, resulting in both lose-lose and multi-lose.
Judging from the signals released by the two countries, the current round of US diplomatic offensive against China is shooting itself in the foot. Blinken came to China with a very clear appeal. The U.S. State Department held a briefing in advance, specifying that Blinken's trip would discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East, and the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Judging from Blinken's statement, he hopes that China will make a more favorable statement to the United States and the West on the Russia-Ukraine issue and keep a distance from Russia; on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, he hopes that China will help the United States get out of the quagmire of war as soon as possible. At the same time, on the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea issue, he also hopes that China and the United States will "manage their differences" and "avoid miscalculations."
U.S.-China Meeting
In summary, the U.S. side expects China to make choices that benefit U.S. national interests, while exercising restraint in the U.S. violation of national interests. This kind of bandit demand will not appear in normal international exchanges, but the United States has naturally raised it, and it is not ashamed but proud.
Of course, the United States also knew that China would not agree, so before his visit to China, Blinken acted cleverly and played the old trick of "making cards out of nothing", hoping to force China to make concessions through maximum pressure. Blinken played two main cards: one called "overcapacity" and the other called "Russia".
Instead of talking about objective data, the US side has turned "overcapacity" into a big hat and buckled it on China's new energy and electric vehicles, which are industries where there is no overcapacity at all. As for "collusion with Russia," the United States has the same means of capping its hats.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China's exports to Russia strictly followed the restriction of "non-military products", and all of them were civilian products. As a result, the United States invented a new term for "dual-use", saying that the machine tools produced in China have helped Russia rebuild its military industrial system, and the washing machines produced in China have been dismantled by Russia to modify weapons.
The United States is very satisfied with these two cards, and Blinken has a very high tone when he hypes them. When talking about "overcapacity", the United States believes that this set of rhetoric accurately steps on the problems of industrial hollowing out and manufacturing outflow, which the United States and the West are most worried about, which can not only pave the way for the launch of a trade war, but also win over Europe to stand together.
When talking about "aiding Russia", the United States even threatened to start drafting a proposal against the Bank of China, preparing to replicate the "financial nuclear bomb" that the West sanctioned Russia at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in China. However, judging from the reactions of all parties, the United States has made two bad cards, and the way of playing cards is also very bad.
The United States and Europe
First of all, the "overcapacity" card did not work as expected at all. What European countries are now more concerned about and have more opinions on is the Fed's rush to raise interest rates. At the annual meeting of global finance ministers held before Blinken's visit to China, Yellen originally planned to drag Europe to hype up the topic of "overcapacity" and create public opinion in favor of Blinken and China's asking price, but the development of things was unexpected.
The executive vice president of the European Commission warned the United States of the need for a "more cautious" financial policy. The president of the European Central Bank said that the US Inflation Reduction Act is steering the world in the wrong direction of "subsidy competition". Japan and South Korea have publicly expressed serious concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plan.
Macron made a high-profile speech, saying that Europe is on the moribund, and if it cannot fully realize strategic autonomy in the fields of energy, defense and economy, it will eventually end up "extinct". To put it bluntly, at a time when the Fed is frantically reaping benefits around the world, countries are facing real losses.
Macron
In contrast, the rhetoric fabricated by the United States pales in comparison. Even America's allies, under the scythe of the Federal Reserve, can no longer turn the pot on China with their eyes closed. Before the United States cleans up the mess of its fiscal deficit, Blinken's attempt to rally allies to contain China by hyping up China's "overcapacity" is an impossible task.
As for the card of "collusion with Russia", China does not accept this set. First, according to the standard of "dual-use" in the mouth of the United States, Europe and the United States are also "colluding with Russia." Second, the United States has miscalculated the situation. Given China's economic size and industrial capacity, it should be the United States begging China not to increase exports to Russia and not to accelerate de-dollarization, not the other way around.
Sanctioning one Russia has accelerated the process of de-dollarization of global trade unprecedentedly. If the United States dares to drop a "financial nuclear bomb" on China, the biggest victim will be the financial hegemony of the United States. The consequences of this are not clear to American politicians, but Wall Street is very clear. The US side had just threatened China to release a "financial nuclear bomb" the day before, and the day after it clarified that although the sanctions plan had already been written, it did not intend to use it.
Putin
If the United States looks ahead, China will not be intimidated. Before the Blinkons had left China, Putin announced plans to visit China in May. The visit was rather unusual. May is a "big month" for Russia. First, after Putin's re-election, he will be officially sworn in on May 7.
Now he has chosen to visit China in the same month, which means that China will be the country he will visit for the first time since taking office, breaking the practice of the first foreign visit by a Russian leader and marking a "higher level" in Sino-Russian cooperation. Second, May 9 is Russia's "Victory Day", and from May to June, Russia is likely to launch a large-scale counteroffensive.
It can be said that this May is considered the "autumn of critical survival" in Ukraine, and it is likely to directly determine the final direction of the entire Russia-Ukraine conflict. Recently, Belarus revealed that it has begun to further deepen cooperation with Russia and start deploying tactical nuclear weapons, which is obviously also preparing for a possible big war in the future.
China and Russia
At this juncture, Putin's choice to come to China for a "meeting" will greatly enhance China's voice in dealing with the Russia-Ukraine issue. With Russia's sincerity as a bargaining chip, China will not only not turn to the United States and the West on the Russia-Ukraine issue according to the wishes of the United States, but can bargain with the United States and the West on the close cooperation between China and Russia.
If the United States and the West do not want to be crushed on the battlefield, they should quickly listen to China's advice, honestly go to the negotiating table, and stop daydreaming of "winner-takes-all". The two bad cards created by the United States against China not only failed to achieve the expected results, but instead lifted a stone and shot itself in the foot, exposing the current foreign strength of the United States and its middle cadres.
The world is increasingly seeing one thing clearly, that is, compared with following the United States to play a "new Cold War", following China to promote multipolarity is the real way to break the situation.
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