Recently I saw a joke.
The policy emphasizes full of determination every day, so A-shares are steadily circling around 3,000 points.
Therefore, it is very down-to-earth in A-shares, because it is stable.
In the U.S. stock market, it is particularly unreliable, because because of its high valuation, investors have to worry about plummeting at any time.
I was speechless.
However, A-shares seem to be stable, but investors in A-shares can be very busy.
And behind this busyness is a clear expectation gap.
What kind of expectation difference? Let's interpret them one by one.
1. Fear of a quarterly thunderstorm
Since April, investors have been busy rebalancing.
The reason for rebalancing is that the performance is afraid that the performance will not fall short of expectations.
As a result, the internal style of the stock market is changing day by day.
Since everyone has a different understanding of the market, it makes the market look like a vegetable market without an organized order.
It can't form a main line.
However, everyone did not stop and traded every day.
It seems that if you don't trade, you will feel uncomfortable.
But the more you trade, the more you can't stop.
It seems that the market has opportunities every day.
Second, I lost my heart and went crazy
As some companies have released a quarterly report.
Investors are starting to concentrate.
But what's more funny is that many companies with good performance plummeted as soon as the quarterly report was released.
And some companies with poor performance have come out of the trend of exhausting profits.
There are also certain companies that plummet first and then skyrocketed.
There are also companies that fall again and again on the back of good performance.
The trading of the entire market seems illogical.
As a result, the shareholding experience will be very unpleasant.
If you hold a high-performing stock, the performance obviously exceeds expectations, but it gives you a plummet. What do you feel like?
Do you feel particularly aggrieved? Do you want to scold A-shares?
Do you instantly feel that value investing is a P?
If you think so, you're too young.
3. Sentiment determines the short-term trend of stock prices
There are three types of people in the market:
One group of people believes that the market is always right, that is, the proponent of the theory of market efficiency.
The other group does not think that the market is right, they think that the market will often make mistakes and quote a ridiculously wrong price, which is a value investor like Warren Buffett.
There is also a group of people who think: regardless of whether the market is right or wrong, if I lose money, the market is wrong, and if I make money, the market is right.
Different people have different mindsets when they see abnormal price fluctuations.
But in the market, the third group of people is the majority.
Since the third group is the majority, the market is often overshadowed by emotions.
When people have emotions, reasoning with them doesn't work.
The more reasonable they are, the more emotional they may become, making the market more extreme.
Isn't such an emotionally unstable person like a madman?
And this madman may also have a kitchen knife on his back.
They even sometimes use a kitchen knife to force you to buy cheap stocks in their hands.
In the future, you may be forced to sell your expensive stock to them with a kitchen knife.
Isn't that the market like that now?
Fourth, there is also a game at work
In addition to emotions, there is also the game that determines the short-term market.
For example, there may be a fear that management will suddenly announce a new policy, and then some stocks in the small and micro caps will plummet.
So be careful.
Some quantitative institutions, in order to adapt to the new rules, will also cut some stocks. Even if the fundamentals of this stock are good.
But since it wasn't because of the fundamentals when it was bought in the first place, it has nothing to do with the fundamentals when it was sold.
And once it falls, retail investors will be scared stupid, and if they don't do well, they will smash the market.
The quarterly report of the public fund has also been released, and it is obvious that they are doing style rotation.
Therefore, they may be more concerned about how to profit from short-term fluctuations in stock prices, so they don't care much about the quarterly report.
At present, there are more than 1,600 mini public funds with a scale of less than 50 million.
These funds have enough flexibility to trade frequently. Moreover, in order not to let themselves be liquidated, they also have the motivation to do the rotational fighting.
However, the median return of these funds this year is -3.4%. (As of April 24)
The average is -3.65%.
The return of the equity fund index was -3.56%.
I've been tossing for more than four months, and I haven't seen any excess returns. It's just a waste of work.
And this kind of idle work has also exacerbated the internal friction of A-shares. It also made the sentiment of shareholders even higher.
There is no way, everyone wants to overtake others and make money in other people's pockets, so everyone is uncomfortable.
Fifth, there is a clear expectation of poor opportunities
It is precisely because the market is now in high mood and superimposed on the fierce game that there will be a significant expectation difference.
There are a lot of good things that have been killed by mistake. (If you believe that the market will make mistakes)
Moreover, the market was generally pessimistic about the first quarter.
Let's not talk about whether the quarterly report is good or bad, but in the case that everyone is full of pessimistic expectations, there is no risk of thunderstorms.
On the contrary, the first quarterly report is likely to be much better than expected.
Why?
Because there are too many thunderstorms in the annual report. That's not normal!
So some of the performance may have been deliberately diverted.
You may have been pessimistic enough to doubt that choosing high-performing stocks is not profitable.
It just so happens that there is an index called the Quarterly Report Forecast Index, and its stock selection criteria are:
1. The lower limit of the change in net profit in the first quarterly report is more than 50%;
2. The net profit forecast of the first quarter is greater than 0;
3. The net profit in the same period of the previous year was greater than 0.
Here's how it goes.
The index was established in 2019, and interestingly, in April every year, it does not move very well.
But the trend after that has been good.
People's beliefs are challenged in the short term because we are too short-sighted.
The reward is voluntary, and 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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