With round after round, wave after wave of falling market, everyone's mood has fallen to the bottom, and the once "proud" North China traders have begun to sell corn, making inventory with tears and swallowing bitter "regret medicine", and no inventory trembling and eating "luck medicine".
At the same time, feed companies in North China began to refuse to accept corn in Henan and Luxi, mainly because some traders played with the "color selection corn" screened by the toxin machine for profit, which made feed companies also suffer.
Yesterday morning, there was a "rare" reduction in the number of enterprises in deep processing in Shandong, and there were also companies that increased their prices - Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical, the purchase price was 1.148 yuan, up 5 cents.
In the face of rising prices, some people seem to see hope. However, in the afternoon, the number of companies that have dropped prices has begun to increase, and some companies have no cars in front of them to lower their prices. Who is it? Shandong Shouguang Juneng Golden Corn.
The purpose and goal are very clear: to continue to push the price of corn downward to a trough, and this trough is just a reasonable proportion to the minimum protective price of wheat. In other words, if corn rebounds, wheat will rebound, and if wheat rebounds, corn will rebound.
Hello friends, today is April 26, 2024, a short-lived accidental rise, instantly drowned by the price market again, once again let the emotions of North China traders fall into grief and panic?
What did we experience in 2015~2016? North China corn flowed back to the northeast, corn fell so that all traders ran away when they saw corn, and they were terrified when they saw corn, and there was a miserable market of 1 yuan and 3 catties in some areas.
In the end, the state launched the "temporary storage", when the first few storage did not change the market, and the later increase in chips, which made the traders who collected grain in panic and fear make a skyrocketing market. Then the deep processing and drying towers were heavily subsidized, and the inventory was finally destocked, and it was not until 2018 that the inventory was exhausted - a huge amount of financial resources were spent to stabilize the market.
The most interesting thing is that in 2015, the stock market hit a number of firsts, and then a number of measures were taken to rescue the market, including a severe crackdown on malicious shorting. State-owned enterprises carry out reforms and are responsible for their own profits and losses. Corn is separated from price compensation, subsidies are subsidized, and prices are market-oriented—in just a few years, have you completely forgotten?
Since last year, the country has started to "increase reserves", which is actually equivalent to the "temporary reserves" of the year - history repeats itself again and again, and the market is repeated again and again, but human nature has not changed, all of which are vividly remembered.
The price of corn is rising, the enthusiasm of farmers is increasing, the weather is helping, the grain is abundant, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price begins to fall.
However, farmers do not recognize because of the loss of money, and will continue to contract land at a high price, and then lose money, after 2~3 years of continuous loss of money, the planting area is reduced, and then the price rises, and the cycle repeats. Great vernacular - Feng Shui takes turns.
Agriculture is just a microcosm of the whole macro market, and so is all the market conditions.
In 2015, the annual pig slaughter volume was 708.25 million heads, and the pig production capacity declined, which decreased by 26.85 million heads compared with 2014, a decrease of 3.65%.
It's just that the rapid iterative development of the current network has infinitely amplified people's emotions, human nature, and market, and there is no time difference, but there is no qualitative change in logic and change curve.
Therefore, the price decline is the law of the market, the price rise is also the law, traders shout every day that the market is not good, every day is the same as asking for food, but you want this meal is really good, every day the car is driving, wearing a big brand, just difficult to do, don't complain.
Because, complaining - not solving any problems, is not an individual ability to change, what to do is to change one's own business strategy - try to survive in the market.
If you can do flow, you can do flow, you can do band, you can do band, you can store grain, you can store food, and if you can do flexible, mobile conversion and random application, although you can't make a lot of money, the risk is relatively small.
Be an Ivy League of the market, so that you have the opportunity to wait for the upward cycle to give you a return - different cycles, different operating modes, different thinking logic.
There are so many so-called big truths in the vernacular, which seem very empty, but I personally hope to bring some thinking to our farmers and trader friends, the market is fair, and success or failure comes from personal cognition. If you don't like it, don't spray.
Let's get down to business, Fa Ge recently released a meeting with the theme: "Notice of the Meeting on Opinions and Suggestions on Studying the Special Study of State-owned Backbone Grain Enterprises to Increase the Scale of Grain Commercial Reserves."
Main content: Let the state-owned backbone grain enterprises combine the current grain market situation and their own storage capacity, give full play to the role of backbone enterprises to enter the market to purchase domestic corn, and increase commercial reserves.
The purpose is very clear and direct, that is, from the policy side, we should focus on mobilizing the enthusiasm of all parties to purchase the main body of purchase, so as to avoid the situation that there are few purchasing subjects before spring ploughing, which will affect the peasants' grain sales, and even more so to avoid the situation of "cheap grain hurting peasants".
This also means that we will definitely find a way to hold the falling market, rather than let it continue to fall sharply.
(1) The third batch of grain storage in Siping, Jilin Province increased the price of the third batch of increased prices, and the purchase price was 2,330 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan.
(2) Jilin Nong'an directly under the library pot branch: 2,320 yuan or above the second class.
(3) Jilin Yongji direct library: 14 moisture first class 2320 yuan, 14.5 moisture 2305 yuan.
(4) Shandong Liaocheng Luxi Grain National Storage is ready to purchase 5,000 tons of corn, and the purchase price is 2,400 yuan. More than 500 tons 2420 yuan.
Yesterday's corn futures fell, so that all traders were confused, but look at the corn market in the Northeast, the price of the Northeast port after the Spring Festival is 2310 yuan, after three months, it is still not this price, 2310 yuan.
Have prices plummeted? Not at all, so why should we be so panicked and pessimistic? Isn't it just because of the price balance that makes grain people uncomfortable selling grain? It's all about acting for yourself and finding a drama for yourself.
Isn't it normal for the price of deep processing to fall? In the early stage of deep processing, the price was raised by a large margin, how many people have sold grain? On the contrary, the price has dropped, and the small cars in front of the door have begun to row up. Every day jokes that peasants can't sell grain, don't grain merchants also have this virtue? Therefore, no one has to laugh at anyone, because they are also fallen people at the end of the world.
Let's take a look at the purchase price of deep processing in Shandong, how much is the difference between the price before the Spring Festival and the current price, at most it has fallen back to the price of 50~80 yuan, has it fallen sharply?
Whoever has corn in his hand is like a hot potato, and is very afraid of burning himself to death, where can he burn it? Deep processing is stuffed full every day, but it just keeps harvesting, what does it mean? The more the price falls, the greater the demand in the market. Isn't that a big boon?
Now the whole market is unanimously shouting "the market in July ~ August is likely to improve"! Just this sentence, it is very likely to disappoint most people, in other words, when the market does not change in July ~ August, there may be another wave of concentrated grain sales!
In the vernacular, when the grain in the hands of traders is gone, when will the market really reverse! Saving corn will definitely make money, it depends on how you grasp it! The market will definitely give you profits. And this profit lies in when you sell and whether you can survive to that point in time, which is the key!
The road to corn is difficult, and wisdom and courage need to coexist.
The market is changeable, and knowing the opportunity is a few points.
知识如海深且广,学无止境益求精。
Domestic and foreign affairs are of concern, and the impact of policies must be identified.
Keen observation is the magic weapon, and the dynamic trend is carefully tasted.
Rational judgment does not follow the trend, and don't believe the grapevine.
The ups and downs are not strange, and the mood is peaceful and peaceful.
Market risks should not be forgotten, and the waist pack should be operated cautiously.
The road of supply and demand is long and long, and the long and short game must be weighed.
Continue to learn and practice diligently, and move forward with steady investment.
(Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)
The latest corn prices in the country on April 26, 2024
Anhui COFCO Biochemical Mohekou: 1.1 yuan, 1 point.
Golden corn in Xiao County, Suzhou, Anhui Province: 1.1 yuan, 5 percent.
Shanxi Changqingyuan: 1.127 yuan below 17 moisture, 1.117 yuan above 17 moisture, 1 point.
Hebei Derui starch: 1.12 yuan, down 5 cents.
Hebei Hengshui Grain: 2,240 yuan for the first, second and third classes, 2,220 yuan for the third class, and 20 yuan for the third class.
Hebei Guangyu starch: net weight ≥ 20 tons 1.136 yuan, net weight ≤ 20 tons 1.126 yuan, down 3 percent.
Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: 1.11 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Ensign Industry: 1.195 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Tianli Pharmaceutical: 1.147 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Heyang Biology: 1.131 yuan, down 5%.
Shandong Baolingbao Biological: 1.133 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.148 yuan, up 5%.
Shandong Shouguang Juneng Golden Corn: 1.147 yuan. 3 cents.
Shandong Fengzhi Zhenlian Biology: 1.105 yuan, down 1 point.
Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.153 yuan, Guyuku 1.163 yuan, down 3%.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.19 yuan, down 3 centimeters. The first drop price.
Shandong Xiwang starch: 1.187 yuan, 3 centi. The second drop price. A total of 6 percent.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.151 yuan, down 2%. The first drop price.
Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.148 yuan, down 5 cents. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Ronghai grain: 1.17 yuan, down 5 cents. The first drop price.
Shandong Ronghai grain: 1.165 yuan, down 5%. The second drop price. A total of 1 point is lost.
Shandong Fuyang Biological: 1.128 yuan, down 5%. The first drop price.
Shandong Fuyang Biological: 1.126 yuan, down 2 percent. The second drop price. A total of 7 percent.
Shandong Luzhou Group: The cycle price of natural drying and drying corn is 1.11 yuan, and the cycle price of less than 20 tons is 1.1 yuan, falling by 5%.
Inner Mongolia Yipin Biology: 14 moisture dry food 2350 yuan, tide grain 2350 yuan, all 10 yuan.
Inner Mongolia Kailu Yuwang: 14 dry food moisture 1.155 yuan, 15 moisture 1.41 yuan, 5 centi. Tide grain 14 moisture 1.15 yuan, 30 moisture 0.929 yuan, down 5 cents.
Jilin Xintianlong: 2270 yuan for the second class, 2250 yuan for the third class, 2220 yuan for the fourth class, and 20 yuan for the fourth class.
Heilongjiang Suihua Haotian: 14 moisture 1.14 yuan, 2.5 centi.
Heilongjiang Jidong Guotou: 13 moisture 1.098 yuan, 14 moisture 1.085 yuan, 20 moisture 1.004 yuan, down 5 centimeters.