1. What is good is bad but what is negative?
Yesterday, many bond bases fell collectively.
Bond-based (pure bond funds) are mainly conservative investors, so after the disclosure of the net value of the fund last night, many bond-based people fell wow-wah. I glanced at it a few times, and it fell by 0.15% in one day, which is really a small pain for the debt base.
Many people asked what was going on in the group, and said that the bond market was obviously good - the central bank was about to buy and sell treasury bonds, and it would release liquidity again. Why doesn't it go up but down?
At that time, after seeing that "the central bank bought and sold treasury bonds", many people's first feeling was that it was good, because the central bank's purchase of treasury bonds in the secondary market was equivalent to putting liquidity into the market, and monetary easing was conducive to the rise of the bond market and the bond base.
The result is just the opposite! The bond market and the bond base have fallen instead of rising. Taking the 5-year Treasury bond futures as an example, they fell 0.17% yesterday, and the bond base also fell.
Source: iFind, as of April 25, 2024
What's going on? What is going on?
I pondered that the current yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen to around 2.5%, far lower than the 3.95% of LPR with more than 5 years, and lower than the central bank's MLF rate, which is significantly higher than the central bank's expectations.
There are also some signs around us: (1) bank loan interest rates have fallen again and again, and (2) reverse repo of treasury bonds and the income of money market funds have been declining.
That is, the central bank has not cut interest rates, and the market has cut interest rates for itself......
The long-term interest rate is falling too fast, even lower than the central bank's operating interest rate, which means that the central bank's influence on the market is weakened, which is not conducive to the central bank's monetary policy regulation and control, and is not conducive to the stability of the exchange rate.
Lao Mei has not cut interest rates, and has dragged it for various reasons. If we cut interest rates ahead of schedule and the United States further postpones interest rate cuts, the pressure on the exchange rate will be very great.
How do we cope?
Judging from the current environment, the two major economic engines of domestic real estate and infrastructure construction are sluggish, and the current concern about the stability of the exchange rate has not continued to cut interest rates, but in the second half of the year or next year, it is advisable to synchronize or stagger with the Fed's interest rate cut.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the short-term correction of the debt base.
However, it should be noted that after all, the bond base has risen very high, and the bond market has also fluctuated normally, with a maximum drawdown of -2.10% in the past 5 years. If the retracement is falling, pay attention to adjusting the investment direction and position control.
Source: iFind, as of April 24, 2024
Second, Aberdeen has risen in the past few days
Next, we take a look at the recent market dynamics.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering around 3050 for 2 months. Tossing back and forth between 3000 and 3100 points every day, it's really sad. The amount of energy has also declined sharply, from an average of 1 trillion per day before to an average of 800 billion per day recently.
On the other hand, the Hang Seng Index continued to rise on a long white candle.
Originally, Village A and Aberdeen were weaker, and even Aberdeen was weaker, but "when you said yes, you secretly baked oil." ”
The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index was more bullish than that of the Hang Seng Index, with higher gains. Is there any sudden benefit for Hong Kong stocks and Hang Seng Technology?
To be honest, I didn't see any new good news. If anything, the only thing I really want to say is the expansion of the Stock Connect mechanism last weekend. After the market on April 19, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Five Measures for Capital Market Cooperation with Hong Kong".
Among them, there are 3 points that have the greatest impact, I just wrote to you before, and the screenshot is pasted below:
Image source: Haomai Institute
In fact, Hong Kong stocks and Hang Seng Technology have fallen before, and the valuation is also very low. The bottom of the policy and the bottom of the performance have also appeared one after another, and the repurchase power has continued to increase.
It's all good, but it's sluggish and shocking.
When everyone got impatient, it got high......
Similar investment phenomena have been repeated throughout history, and will be repeated over and over again in the future. This requires us to learn a lesson and think backwards.
Can I still buy it now?
It's really hard to say in the short term, no one can predict 100% of the short-term market ups and downs, and it may fall back after a rapid rise. However, as long as the valuation is low, even if there is a pullback, the magnitude is very limited, and we only need to grasp the medium and long-term climb and rise.
I screened it, and there are a total of 13 specific funds! Broad-based, Hang Seng Technology, Medicine, Consumption, and Dividends 5 categories are among them, and private messages have obtained a list of 13 high-quality Hong Kong stock funds.
But be careful: don't be too paranoid about a single industry.
Even if we do get our analysis right, the market correction process is not always smooth sailing, and even often twists and turns. Therefore, doing a good job in asset allocation, diversifying investment, and slow flow is the only secret to crossing bulls and bears.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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