Source: Wind, Haomai Institute. Time period: 2018.1.2-2024.4.25
Today's (2024/4/25) market temperature is 18.57°C, which is in the greedy range. After the rapid rise in February, the market has entered the box shock range, considering that the market temperature is still low, the position is low, you can consider adding positions when it falls, and if the position is high, it is recommended to see more and move less.
First, the real review
First of all, let's briefly talk about the overall performance of the regular investment market. Since the opening of the position in June 2023, #我要变富# has made a profit of 0.86% and #我很富有# has lost 2.11%, and the two real performances have outperformed the benchmark.
In the past week, the A-share part of the portfolio, CSI Liquor performed the best, up 2.4%, and the small-cap index CNI 2000, which fell much last week, rebounded this week, up 1.6%. The previously popular dividend strategy index has pulled back this week. The Dividend Low Volatility 100 became the worst performing target of the portfolio in the past week, falling 1.7%. At the same time, the CSI 300 did not perform very well. Reviewing the results every week, we can feel that the recent rotation of the A-share sector is relatively fast, so we once again emphasize the importance of balanced allocation. Overseas, India performed the best, U.S. stocks rose again after a correction, the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq, and Vietnam and Japan fell.
Today, Thursday, the regular investment real market continues to depart~ Today, the good buy thermometer is 18.57 degrees, which is still in the greedy range, and it is normal to invest today. For the first time to co-invest in the "I am rich" real market, you can first build a bottom position, and the bottom position starting ratio is shown in the table.
#我要变富#今日发车: The 45th weekly fixed investment, 1,000 yuan will be deducted.
#我很富有#今日发车: Since 7.20, after the bottom position has been built (40% of the bottom position, only 10% of the bottom position of US stocks), the weekly fixed investment has been opened. Today is the 38th fixed investment, buying 2005.2 yuan.
Source: Haomai Fund App
Second, the debt base has fallen, don't panic first!
Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond suddenly rose from 2.24% to 2.28%, and the 30-year Treasury bond ETF fell by 1.09%, which is a relatively large adjustment for long-end bonds this year.
The last time the 30-year Treasury bond ETF fell more than 1% was on March 12, when the position of the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to about 2.34%, mainly because the economic data improved slightly at that time, and the CPI ended four consecutive months of negative value in February, so the interest rate turned upward, and the long-term bond base fell greatly, but with the release of other data later, the upward momentum of interest rates failed to continue. Why is the bond base plummeting this time?
The direct trigger was Yang Ma's shouting. Many friends said they didn't understand, let's focus on the key interpretation.
"Long-term Treasury yields mainly reflect long-term economic growth and inflation expectations, but they are also disturbed by other factors such as supply and demand" means that although the recent bond bull market has been supported by fundamentals, the reason why Treasury yields are falling so fast is because of the mismatch between supply and demand. On the demand side, institutional investment is facing an "asset shortage", while on the supply side, the issuance of government bonds is low, especially in the first quarter of this year.
"Long-term Treasury bond yields will generally run within a reasonable range that matches long-term economic growth expectations" is a reminder that the bond market is a bit crazy now, and the downward range of long-term interest rates is a little unhealthy. Entering the second quarter, the Ministry of Finance already has plans to issue 50-year ultra-long treasury bonds.
"Buying and selling treasury bonds in the secondary market can be used as a liquidity management method and a reserve for monetary policy tools. When reading this sentence alone, I believe that many people will think that it is good and think that QE (quantitative easing) is coming, but the latter sentence "the central bank will carry out treasury bond operations in the future will also be two-way" tells everyone that not only can buy, but also sell, we do not want to lower the yield, but to stabilize the yield in a range.
On the one hand, the Ministry of Finance is going to issue more treasury bonds, and on the other hand, the central bank said that I didn't say that I must buy them. Then the market will have a bad expectation, that is, after the issuance of more treasury bonds, the central bank will buy less, and the bond market will be bearish. So this time, Yang Ma's shouting is a negative. So yesterday the agency also ran one step ahead.
However, don't panic, the logic of the medium and long-term bond market is still good, we are still optimistic, and the "I want to get rich" real market also insists on holding the bond base.
At present, the total amount of treasury bonds on the mainland is 30 trillion yuan, the 50-year treasury bonds planned to be issued by the Ministry of Finance are only 23 billion yuan, and the central bank holds less than 200 billion yuan of treasury bonds that can be sold. If we want to get out of the crazy bull market turned into a bear market like 2016 and 2020, unless the stock market and the economy can stabilize relatively quickly and change the general environment of asset shortage from the root.
Moreover, the debt base is different from the stock base, and each time the pit climbs is still very fast. Each bond bear market is short-lived, and after a pullback, it can hit new all-time highs again.
Source: Wind
Here is also a look at the maximum drawdown and drawdown repair days since the establishment of the four medium- and long-term bond funds in the real market, and it can be seen that compared with the stock base, the downside risk is still much less.
Data source: Haomai Fund Research Center, as of 2024.4.24
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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