One
Yesterday, 30-year Treasury futures fell by 1.17% and today they are down another 0.35%.
来源：Wind
In the bond-based market, it fell by 1.5% in 2 days, which is definitely a big fall, and it will rise by 4-5 points in a year.
So, why did the bond base plummet?
On the news side, in response to the continued decline in long-term Treasury bond yields, the 30-year Treasury bond yield fell below 2.5%,
The head of the relevant department of the central bank told the media that the yield of long-term government bonds will generally operate within a reasonable range that matches the long-term economic growth expectation.
The mainland's long-term growth growth is expected to be 4%-5%, and the 30-year Treasury yield of only 2.5% is too low.
Yang Ma's words still need to be taken seriously, so the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds has risen.
Why is the yield of government bonds rising, but the bond base will fall?
It's complicated to explain, just remember the conclusion:
The relationship between the two is inverse: when the government bonds fall, the bond base rises, and when the government bond rises, the bond base falls.
Two
The bullish bond market this year is also directly related to the continuous decline in Treasury yields.
There are only 3 ways for pure bond funds to increase their returns:
1. Do credit sinking
The higher the credit rating of the bond, the lower the yield, and vice versa.
If you buy treasury bonds that will not go bankrupt, there are only 3 points, and I buy corporate bonds that may go bankrupt, there are 6-8 points.
2. Increase leverage
The higher the leverage, the higher the return.
3. Extend the investment period
The professional saying is to extend the long term, in fact, it is the same as buying a bank deposit, the longer the holding period, the higher the return.
For example, the return on a 3-year deposit is 2.2%, and the return on a 5-year deposit is 2.75%.
But we also have to see that if these three methods are not done well, we will step on thunder.
Not to mention the sinking credit, if you buy a bunch of high-yield real estate private enterprise bonds, you will lose your bottoms.
The risk of increasing leverage also exists in the bond market, which is how long-term capital in the United States has gone bankrupt.
Before bankruptcy, the calendar year returns on long-term capital were 28.5%, 42.8%, 40.8%, 17%, silky and strong.
However, because of the 33 times leverage, it was misjudged that the Russian bond would not default, and finally the position was blown up in one fell swoop.
And the risk of lengthening the investment horizon is how Silicon Valley Bank went bankrupt last year.
Last year, Silicon Valley Bank used large deposits and short-term borrowings to buy longer-duration U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Short-term debt and long-term investment, maturity mismatch, and then as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and interest rates, bond asset prices plummeted, leading to insolvency and liquidity crises for banks.
Yesterday, the 30-year Treasury bond fell by 1.17%, and the closer the decline in your pure bond fund is, it means that you have bought a lot of long-term Treasury bonds.
来源：Wind
How well it rises in the front, how bad it may fall in the back, and this risk must be paid attention to.
Three
However, brothers, don't panic blindly.
For most debt bases, the impact is limited.
For example, several ace bond-based fund managers, such as China Merchants Ma Long (China Merchants Industry), GF Daiyu (GF Double Bond Tianli), etc.
There are also Anxin Zhang Yifei (Essence Steady Value-Added), E Fund's Hu Jian (E Fund's Stable Income), Wang Xiaochen (E Fund's Enhanced Return, E Fund's Dual Bond Enhanced), Zhang Qinghua (E Fund's Yufeng Return), Tianhong Jiang Xiaoli (Tianhong Yongli Bond), etc.
Like my favorite Zhang Yifei, whose Anxin has a steady appreciation as a secondary bond base, the stock position is 17.60%, but it only fell 0.09% yesterday.
In fact, the bond base is more suitable for ordinary people to invest regularly, because the income mainly comes from bond interest, and its net value curve has been upward for a long time and the fluctuation is very small.
Every time it falls, it is a good opportunity to increase your position.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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