Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, but the lingering suspense over the Taiwan issue for many years raises the question of whether this generation can return Taiwan to the embrace of the motherland.
This question deserves to be put on a question mark, because at present, it seems that both "military reunification" and "peaceful reunification" have difficulties.
A Taiwanese military expert is also aware of this, and he analyzed that Chinese mainland has embarked on a third path when it knows that both ways have difficulties.
So, is there any truth in what this Taiwan military expert said? What is the "third way"?
1. "Peaceful reunification" is no longer the mainland's first choice
There are three main reasons why the Taiwan issue has dragged on for more than 70 years: First, the United States has participated, second, the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island are rampant, and third, the mainland is not well prepared.
These three conditions have contributed to Taiwan's current state – it is difficult to be quickly annexed to the motherland.
Although the US Government has repeatedly shouted its support for the "one-China" policy, and some politicians in the Taiwan region have also held high the banner of "one China" in order to seek benefits from the mainland, in fact, these are just their expedient measures and opportunistic tricks.
It is precisely in recognition of this that the mainland has made frequent moves against Taiwan in recent years.
On February 17, 2024, Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded to the Taiwan issue at the Munich Security Conference, saying that "reunification will definitely be realized, which is the very firm will of the 1.4 billion Chinese people."
It can be seen from this sentence that the reunification of Taiwan is the unswerving goal of the mainland, but there should be a question mark over how to reunify Taiwan, peaceful reunification, or reunification by force.
However, judging from the recent news from the party Central Committee, I am afraid that "peaceful reunification" will be ranked after "armed reunification."
As can be seen from the government work report released by the two sessions this year, the words "peaceful reunification" are not mentioned in the content, and the expression "peaceful reunification" has been deleted, and the report also emphatically stresses: Resolutely oppose "Taiwan independence" separatism and foreign interference.
You must know that the mainland has been emphasizing "peaceful reunification" in the past, and its expressions about "Taiwan independence" have not been as resolute as they have been this year. This signal directly shows the determination of the mainland side -- since there are difficulties in peaceful reunification, it will seek another path.
Second, both "peaceful reunification" and "military reunification" have difficulties
"Reunification by force" is the voice of the majority of the people on the mainland, but there are also certain risks and obstacles.
In 2023, more than 70 percent of Taiwanese people support the "status quo" and do not support the PLA takeover of Taiwan, and there are fewer and fewer people in Taiwan's political arena who support reunification. In addition, the involvement of the United States has also made the situation in Taiwan confusing.
From 2021 to 2023, Biden sold arms to Taiwan 10 times, and they relied on military force to keep Taiwan firmly on their thighs, which worked, so the DPP is more inclined to get benefits from the United States than to get close to the mainland.
The treacherous situation in the Taiwan Strait has aggravated the complication of the Taiwan issue, and Taiwan has been on the verge of leaving Taiwan for hundreds of years, which has led many people to ponder -- Where will Taiwan go in the future? After all, the mainland's armed forces have been slow to take action, is the road to military reunification feasible?
Recently, a Taiwan military expert named Xie Hanbing pointed out a new path, which he called "forced reunification," which is different from "military reunification" and "peaceful reunification."
Xie Hanbing, who served as chief of the operations division of the Taiwan Army Command and director of the Army Tactical Training Center, has an in-depth understanding and exploration of the armed forces on both sides of the strait.
According to what he said, Chinese mainland has abandoned the idea of military reunification and peaceful reunification, and has instead adopted "forced reunification," that is, forcing the Taiwan side to take the initiative to draw closer to the mainland through the dual means of economic interests and military deterrence, so as to achieve reunification to a certain extent.
III. The "Third Way" Pointed Out by Taiwan Experts
Xie Hanbing pointed out that military reunification is difficult for both Taiwan and the PLA, and this will cause casualties and war and conflict among the residents of the two places, and it is very likely that the United States will interfere in China's internal affairs.
Fundamentally speaking, the two methods used in the so-called "coercive reunification" are military deterrence and economic repression.
Only when the mainland strongly exports its economic strength to Taiwan can the Taiwan people realize that only by cooperating with the mainland can they survive and develop, and can Taiwan be willing to contact the mainland and deeply dependent on or even vassalized with the mainland; military strength is that the mainland has continuously suppressed Taiwan militarily to make the "Taiwan authorities" feel the unshakable influence of the mainland side, thus feel the sense of urgency of the trend of reunification, and take the initiative to seek cooperation and talks with the mainland.
It has to be said that Xie Hanbing's cognition has a certain degree of truth, because judging from China's exchanges with the mainland and Taiwan in recent years, the economic foundation and military deterrence have indeed become a powerful means for the mainland to gradually move closer to Taiwan.
On the economic front, Chinese mainland's influence has penetrated all corners of Taiwan.
According to the "Report on the Mainland's Economic Statistics on Taiwan", in 2022, Taiwan's exports to the mainland reached 1.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 41.5% of Taiwan's total exports.
The figure illustrates a problem – Taiwan has become highly dependent on the mainland market. If this trend continues, I am afraid that Taiwan will almost take root in the mainland market and become a vassal of the mainland completely.
If, on this basis, the mainland does not stress martial virtues, frequently raises tariffs, increases trade barriers, and renegotiates conditions, it is afraid that Taiwan's economic situation will usher in a cold winter, and this is precisely the economic expression of "forced reunification."
In recent years, the mainland's military deterrence has also severely deterred the "Taiwan independence" forces.
In August 2022, military exercises in the PLA's Eastern Theater gave Taiwan independence elements a clear idea of the mainland's military strength, and since Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the median line of the strait was withdrawn, and the PLA can conduct military patrols in the island area again and again, as if no one was in a no-man's land.
The frequent actions have made the "Taiwan independence" forces sweat in a cold sweat, and planes have flown over their heads, not to mention that the mainland's map has accurately covered every street and business on the island of Taiwan.
Xie Hanbing believes that these two means are "forcing Taiwan to Liangshan," and it is not known whether the Liangshan they choose is the mainland or the United States, or other forces.
In addition, the strategy of "forced reunification" also helps China show its muscles to deter other countries, such as the United States and Japan, who still covet Taiwan, but their ideas will only become less and less under the frequent persecution of Chinese mainland, until the Taiwanese people understand that the only Liangshan they choose is the mainland of the motherland.
In fact, whether or not the third way can be implemented for a long time depends on the actions of other countries, and the United States and Japan will not allow substantial progress in relations between Taiwan and the mainland; otherwise, the United States will lose its bridgehead in East Asia, and they will no longer be able to contain China.
Whether it is providing military weapons to Taiwan or supporting their proxies and "Taiwan independence" forces, in short, the game between China and the United States will continue for a long time, and Taiwan is an important part of it.
Resources:
"Lu Xiufang Spicy Evening News" 2023.5.22
Full Text丨Wang Yi's keynote speech at the 60th Munich Security Conference "China Session" - Beijing News