After the wheat fell, the smiling face of the corn did not last long, and it began to grin.
Probably no one expected that when the corn reached the end of the purchase and sale, it would fall again, and it fell very strangely.
First of all, Shandong corn came to a broken jar.
Originally, Shandong corn was unstable, lacking policy and demand boost, and it has been swaying, but recently it has been falling like a wild horse that has taken off the leash.
The second is the Northeast corn, which has been as stable as Mount Tai, and it can't hold it this time.
The grain depot is falling, and the price of deep processing and deep processing is also falling, which has broken the original situation of wind and sunshine.
And it doesn't matter if it falls like this, it's like opening Pandora's box and falling endlessly.
Originally, as the purchase and sale of corn was nearing the end, the surplus grain at the grassroots level was greatly reduced, and corn began to wait for a bottoming out. As a result, I didn't expect the rebound to come, but fell more violently.
Therefore, we can't help but ask: What kind of evil did corn fall into, and why did it suddenly become like this?
As the saying goes, what you plant gets what you get, and this situation is certainly not suddenly formed, but hidden dangers have been buried when the corn was just harvested and marketed last year.
First of all, it is certain that the current situation of corn is the result of an imbalance between supply and demand in the regional market.
The Northeast is the number one corn producing area, and the local area cannot absorb such a huge supply, so a large amount of corn has to be shipped out every year.
As the country's largest corn deep processing and feed processing area, Shandong's annual corn consumption will reach more than 40 million tons.
Under normal circumstances, the price of corn in Shandong and Northeast China will maintain a reasonable price difference, so that the corn in Northeast China can be smoothly transported and circulated.
This was very obvious when the corn was just harvested last year, that is, after the corn harvest last year, the price of corn in Northeast China fell frequently, and it once became a low-lying area, which was considered an "opportunity", and also prompted a lot of Northeast corn to flow into Shandong and North China.
However, last year's corn production increased bumper harvest, of which Shandong and North China are the main areas to increase production, and the entry of corn in Northeast China has increased the supply pressure of corn.
In addition, Shandong and North China are also facing a bigger problem, that is, consumption is not strong.
On the one hand, there are imported grain substitutions in the southern sales area, and there is no interest in corn in the mainland, and most of them are mainly wait-and-see; on the other hand, affected by the weather and the continuous grinding of the breeding industry, the local and surrounding pigs are more decentralized, resulting in a significant decline in feed demand.
As a result, corn in North China of Shandong has become a child that no one wants, not only the price has fallen frequently, but also the progress of grain sales is obviously slow.
However, after falling below 1.2 yuan / catty, Shandong's market can be regarded as maintained, although it is still fluctuating, but the fluctuation range has narrowed significantly.
But at this moment, something happened again.
First, the time flickered to the end of April, and the early-maturing wheat will be on the market around mid-May, which means that the wheat in North China will be harvested.
Many traders began to switch to wheat and corn, and the pressure on the North China market was already to the limit.
As a result, North China corn and Shandong began to continue to fall.
Second, corn fell so much, and market sentiment completely collapsed.
Those who were still waiting and watching were not watching, and they were all thinking about running away quickly, which is why the amount of corn in Shandong has not dropped for a long time, and even broke 1,000 immediately after just dropping a little.
With the weakening of Shandong and the stabilization of the Northeast, the corn in Shandong and the Northeast began to invert, and the average price difference hit a new low since the cancellation of the temporary storage of corn, and even some of the corn in North China of Shandong began to flow back to the Northeast market.
Although the Northeast has been supported by increased reserves, Shandong and North China are so messy, especially the situation of corn regression, the Northeast market is a little panicked.
In particular, the grain source with a higher purchase price in the early stage could not stand it, and for a time, whether it was a grain depot or a large increase in the amount in front of the enterprise, the natural price drop became inevitable.
As a result, the corn was under this domino effect, and the wall fell and everyone pushed it.
As we said the other day, the corn market is likely to be even more confusing because everything is almost in a state of chaos.
For example, supply and demand are chaotic, emotions are chaotic, and even wheat, which has always been on top of each other with corn, has fallen into chaos, so corn has become very turbulent during this time, and even the ups and downs have begun to become illogical.
And at present, there is no sign of change for a while, and this will be an extremely painful period for the main body of grain holders.
History repeats itself! Wheat began to be sold in tears, and new wheat expectations plummeted
Although I don't want to admit it, the reality is that we can't ignore it, and the history of wheat repeats itself last year.
As the new wheat harvest is getting closer and closer, the transaction is getting lower and lower, and the auction of policy wheat has become more and more crazy.
In the end, he still couldn't escape this catastrophe.
Especially after the wheat fell below 1.3 yuan/jin, it was more like a deflated ball, continued to go down, and began to move closer to 1.25 yuan/jin, and some have even fallen below 1.25 yuan/jin.
For a time, the wheat market was mournful.
Although there were a lot of bullish voices before, it is useless to shout up, and in the end, it is necessary to look at it objectively.
For now, at least, the wheat market is a one-sided affair:
First, the pressure on policy wheat continues.
It can be said that the wheat fell like this, and the auction of policy wheat was the direct culprit. Although the filming has started ahead of schedule this year, it still failed to alleviate the pressure on the follow-up market, so it was forced to start the big sale market again.
The second is that the demand really can't be stopped.
Since the withdrawal of wheat substitution, flour companies are in charge, but this side is not good. Because the downstream demand for flour is also weak.
At present, it is the off-season of flour demand, and the flour is generally in stock, even if the company wants to raise the price, but the sales are not smooth, there is nothing to be done.
On the other hand, although the price of pigs is also shouting up, but in the end it is still swaying below the cost line, the demand for feed is sluggish, and the demand for by-products such as bran is even lower.
The flour can't move, the bran is also falling in price, and the operating rate of flour companies is declining under constant pressure.
And at this time, when it comes to the policy wheat sale, it is really impossible to catch it.
Third, the new wheat harvest is expected to continue, and it has perfectly taken over the baton of wheat supply.
Policy: There will always be a time when the wheat auction will be finished, or the current situation is very close to the end of the auction, but this does not mean that the supply of wheat will decline.
As the new wheat harvest draws closer and the expectation of a bumper crop increases, the relay wheat supply makes the wheat bullish become a distant prospect.
As a result, most of the grain-holding entities that wanted to stand up in the early stage also wanted to stop the loss.
At this time, corn with wheat as the top bottom also began to enter the downward market, to be sure, I don't know who dragged down whom, but corn, wheat both fell, this is a lose-lose situation.
Under such heavy pressure, the center of gravity of wheat has been declining, and to make matters worse, with the decline of old wheat, the transaction of new wheat has also weakened frequently, resulting in further lower market expectations for new wheat.
How low is it?
Previously, the market still had some confidence in Xinmai, and was generally optimistic about the position of 2600-2700 yuan/ton, but now the price gap between Chenmai is declining, and the price gap between Xinmai is narrowing, and it is getting closer and closer to Xinmai on the market, and the market believes that this is a manifestation of Xinmai transfer.
As a result, the expectation of new wheat has further declined, and it is generally seen that it is 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and some have even seen 2400-2500 yuan/ton.
As a result, the pressure on Xinmai also followed.
And for the follow-up, pay attention to a few things:
First, the price difference between new wheat and corn determines whether some of the new wheat will flow into feed, thereby alleviating part of the supply pressure.
The second is the change of new wheat production, especially regional changes.
The whole is the whole, but the specific market in various places still changes according to the changes in supply and demand in various places, so we should pay more attention to the changes in the production of wheat in various places.
The third is the corn market.
It is said that corn is the bottom of wheat, and when corn weakens frequently, the center of gravity of wheat will definitely decline, but once the bottom of corn is determined, wheat will not be far from stabilizing.
In the end, even if the decline is so fierce, we still think that Chen Mai will still have a chance for a period of time after Xinmai is listed, but how big this opportunity is and how long it will last depends on how much surplus grain is left after this round of wheat market storm.
