Can the United States do it by threatening to sanction several Chinese banks that provide financial services to Russia? The US House of Representatives passed the Ukraine aid bill, why did Zelensky "sue for peace" with Russia at this time?
Blinken visited China for the second time, and the United States threatened to sanction China
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 22nd that the United States is drafting sanctions that could cut off some Chinese banks from the global financial system, with the aim of blocking China's commercial support for Russian military production. This is a major event, and once the relevant sanctions are implemented, not only will China's financial system face severe challenges, but also a new wave of bottoming out in China-US relations. However, the sanctions have not yet landed, and there is still room for the game.
You know, starting today on April 24, Blinken will visit China for three days. This is also Blinken's second visit to China this year. It is not difficult to see that the Wall Street Journal report is building momentum for Blinken's visit to China.
Last week, Blinken accused China of supporting Russia's defense industry after attending a meeting of G7 foreign ministers. He said that China is a major contributor to the Russian military-industrial complex, providing Russia with elements and components of weapons and equipment, helping Russia to rebuild its defense industrial base, which has been weakened by sanctions and export controls.
Under the exaggerated momentum of the official and media, Blinken, who came with the threat of sanctions, was immediately full of suspense about his visit to China. What stance will Blinken express on Sino-Russian relations and what demands will he put forward? How will China express its position? Once the two sides fail to reach an agreement, will the US sanctions against China's financial system be implemented, and in what form? It can be expected that on the issue of China's role in the Russia-Ukraine war, the game between China and the United States on and off the table will reach a climax during Blinken's visit to China.
The United States threatened to sanction institutions that provide financial services to Russia, and there were signs of it at the end of last year. Last December, Biden signed an executive order warning foreign financial institutions that "if they facilitate major transactions related to Russian military-industrial bases, they are at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system."
At the time, Biden did not threaten China by name. But as Ukraine falls into the dilemma of lack of troops and ammunition, the Russian army's advantage on the battlefield is becoming greater and greater, and the United States is putting more and more pressure on China. Since March, China's big four banks have been selectively halting payments from Russia, especially those related to key electronic component transactions. But the United States is not satisfied with this, and earlier this month, Biden raised the issue in person during a phone call with the Chinese leader. Yellen later expressed similar concerns during her visit to China. Blinken's visit to China has further stepped up, threatening to impose sanctions on Chinese financial institutions through the US media.
The war situation in Ukraine is unfavorable, and the United States shirks its responsibility
It can be seen that the pressure exerted by the United States on China has gradually increased with the situation between Russia and Ukraine. This is mainly because the exclusion of Chinese financial institutions from the global financial system is not an easy thing to do, and it is also very harmful to the United States itself. Unless it is a last resort, the United States will not choose this method of "injuring 1,000 enemies and 800 self-inflicted losses."
This time, the US has issued new sanctions threats against China through the media, not only to target China, but also to put pressure on Europe at the same time.
U.S. media pointed out that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Europe has only imposed sanctions on 3 Chinese entities, while the United States has taken at least 100 sanctions against Chinese entities. Therefore, the United States believes that Europe's attitude is crucial if it is to force China to change course through punitive measures. Not long ago, White House Indo-Pacific Affairs Coordinator Campbell also specifically warned Europe, saying that China is trying to develop economic and political relations with Europe on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is providing Russia with dual-use technology to undermine Europe's security. But the two goals are clearly at odds with each other, and he hopes that leaders in China and Europe will consider this.
In response to this statement by the US side, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin pointed out sharply that "while the United States announced the bill on large-scale aid to Ukraine, it also made groundless accusations against normal trade between China and Russia." "This is extremely hypocritical and irresponsible, and China firmly opposes it. Wang Wenbin also said, "China has always implemented regulations on the export of dual-use products. We will not accept responsibility being passed on or placed on us. ”
The shirking of responsibility mentioned here refers to the G7 foreign ministers' meeting held in Italy last Friday, in which European officials held the United States accountable, believing that it was the United States' long-term delay in aid to Ukraine that led to the recent victory of the Russian army and the huge crisis in Ukraine. Zelensky has also publicly stated that if the United States does not provide assistance, then Ukraine will risk losing the war. In the face of these accusations, Blinken's explanation is that China has provided Russia with dual-use materials to help Russia rebuild its defense industry, so Russia can continue to invade Ukraine under the pressure of Western sanctions.
In general, this time the United States threatened to impose sanctions on Chinese financial institutions, and the chances of their final implementation are low. The main reason for this move by the United States is to show Europe and to shirk its responsibility for its ineffective aid to Ukraine. Next, we need to observe the attitude of Europe, if European countries are generally hesitant or uncooperative, even if the United States wants to sanction Chinese financial institutions, it will be powerless.
It should be added that industry insiders are generally not optimistic about the threat of sanctions from the United States. For example, Bergpenge, a former employee of the Central Bank of Russia, said that although China's major banks have suspended their business with Russia, these businesses are gradually being replaced by many unknown regional banks, which have little to no dollar business and are not too worried about US sanctions.
The Wall Street Journal also pointed out that China is Europe's main trading partner and financial provider. Although Europe has more influence over China than the United States, it has also been more cautious when it comes to sanctioning Chinese entities. So far, Europe has sanctioned only a fraction of the dozens of companies on the US blacklist.
The United States and Europe confiscated Russian assets, and Zelensky took the initiative to "sue for peace"
The United States is still considering whether to sanction Chinese financial institutions, and Europe is even more hesitant. But when it comes to the confiscation of Russian assets, the United States and Europe seem to have made up their minds. On April 20, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would allow the Biden administration to confiscate frozen Russian assets in U.S. banks and use them for aid to Ukraine.
Russian State Duma Chairman Volodin responded on the 22nd that the bill approved by the United States is an act of theft and a blatant illegal decision. This will undermine the trust of other countries in the United States, undermine the principle of the inviolability of property, which is the basis of the world's financial system, and at the same time cause irreparable harm to international law. Setting this precedent would give other countries the right to do the same.
Volodin also said that of the $280 billion in frozen overseas assets in Russia, only 5 billion to 6 billion are in the United States, and the main part is in EU countries. The US move is aimed at instigating the EU to take the same step and harm the European economy in doing so.
As you can see, there is a very similar point between the confiscation of Russian property by the United States and the threat of sanctions against Chinese financial institutions, and that is that the attitude of Europe is crucial.
At present, the Russian side has issued a stern warning to Europe. On April 23, the head of the upper house of the Russian parliament, Matviyenko, said that Russia was preparing a draft of the response and would retaliate "very strongly and sufficiently".
Matviyenko warned that the confiscation of Russian assets would cause damage to the global economy. This will be an unprecedented step in the history of the world and will destroy the world economy. Such behavior is "absolutely illegal," and "in Europe it is clear to everyone that this is simply impossible." ”
Matvienko also said that the United States wants to strangle Europe, "economically and politically suppress Europe" and make it a "vassal in the field of security and defense" of the United States, but that the confiscation of Russian assets and the interest they accrue is not in the interests of Europeans. Because Europe will lose more under Russia's counterattack, European companies must speak out, otherwise Russia's retaliatory measures will deal a heavy blow to businesses.
The seizure of Russian assets by the United States and Europe and the use of them to aid Ukraine is good for Ukraine. Zelensky also seized the opportunity and intends to use the summit on Ukraine to be held in Switzerland in June this year to have a dialogue with the Russian side. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the outcome of the summit may be transformed into a document containing at least three "to be considered" clauses, and then the Ukrainian side will find an appropriate time to transfer it to the "enemy" for discussion.
The summit on Ukraine will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16, and Russia has already stated in advance that it will not participate in this meeting. At this time, Zelensky "put a hot face on his cold ass" and took the initiative to formulate the terms of the negotiations and submit them to the Russian side for discussion, for what is the purpose? First of all, of course, the $61 billion aid just announced by the United States and the 500 million pounds of aid provided by the United Kingdom. This made Zelensky feel that he had the confidence to directly put forward conditions to Russia. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Zelensky is stalling for time. The current battlefield situation facing the Ukrainian army is extremely grim.
On April 22, Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, said in an interview with the BBC that due to the postponement of the US military aid plan and the difficulty in Europe to find the weapons needed to keep Kyiv fighting, the Ukrainian army is losing on the front line, and Ukraine may not have much time. Budanov expects Russia to intensify its front-line offensive by mid-May and early June, and "in the near future we will face a rather difficult situation." "Zelensky can win greater gaming capital for Ukraine by releasing the smoke bomb of negotiations and waiting for a new round of Western aid to arrive and transform it into combat power.
Putin's inauguration is coming, and the Russian army may increase its offensive
However, it is still unknown whether Russia will pick up. The Russian side has announced that Putin will be sworn in on May 7. Public opinion believes that the Russian army may achieve some major results before Putin's inauguration, so as to consolidate and enhance Putin's prestige.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said on the 22nd that the Russian army has fully controlled the village of Novohelivka, 40 kilometers southwest of Donetsk. This is the second military advance of the Russian army in two days last Sunday, after occupying the settlement of Bohddanivka, west of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military said that about 20,000 to 25,000 Russian soldiers were trying to capture the strategic town of Chasov Yar in eastern Ukraine. If it is lost, then the Russian army will move closer to two other strategic towns - Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. So far, Chasov Yar remains under Ukrainian control, the Ukrainian military said, but it is clear that Russian forces are trying to capture the town before May 9, which commemorates the Soviet Union's Day of Victory in World War II.
All in all, with Putin's inauguration, the Russian offensive will become more intense, and Ukraine, although promised by the United States for assistance, still has a difficult time to go through before the arrival of American weapons. At this time, Zelensky proposed to have "discussions" with the Russian side, I am afraid that the real purpose is to delay time and wait until US aid is in place, and then start a fight with Russia.