one
2018 is coming to an end, and I don't miss it at all.
two
In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump smashed the exchange rates of two countries, one was Turkey, which had a political conflict, and in August, the dollar-lira exchange rate fell from 1:4.5 to 1:7.2, under Erdogan's political card game (see my previous article "Erdogan's Game") The exchange rate has returned to 1:5.6, and the other is Iran, where the conflict is more serious, the exchange rate of the dollar against the rial has been smashed from 1:36000 at the beginning of the year to 1:44000 now, and Russia, which has been resisting, has performed well this year, and the exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble has only risen from 1:56 to 1:69, which is stable compared to the horror of falling 50% at every turn in previous years.
Well, it is beyond my comprehension to govern the country like that, it is not the United States that smashed it, it is a fantasy statecraft that normal human beings cannot understand.
Trump has always wanted to smash China's market, and the exchange rate of the dollar against the yuan rose from 1:6.48 at the beginning of the year to 1:6.9 at the end of the year, which was not too strong, but also made the yuan depreciate by about 5.43% for the year.
Everyone's having a hard time.
叁
In the stock market, the United States went crazy and even smashed itself.
China's A-shares rushed to 4,400 points in January 2018, and investors were happy for a month, and then weakened all the way, falling to 2,500 points, down 24.6% for the whole year, the largest decline in the world.
Germany's DAX fell 18% for the year, South Korea's Seoul Composite fell 17.3%, Japan's Topix Composite fell 17.8%, Italy fell 11.83%, France fell 14%, the United Kingdom fell 13%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 14.8%, and the US S&P 500 also fell from 2,740 at the beginning of the year to 2,480 at the end of the year.
With the exception of India and Brazil, global stock markets are falling. Everyone scrambled to the streets.
In the 63 years since 1955, the 10-year and 1-year yields of U.S. bonds have inverted 10 times, and the United States fell into a recession shortly after 9 of them.
It's really a worse than bad time.
肆
Zhou Jintao said that starting in 2019, it will be a decade-long recession.
Meituan Wang Xing said from another philosophical perspective: 2019 will be the worst year in the last decade, but it will be the best year in the next decade.
If it's too profound, it sounds like nonsense.
Since November, housing prices in first-tier cities have begun to tighten. Shenzhen housing prices that have been ridiculed for a long time have fallen for more than ten months, falling seven or eight yuan a month, and second-hand housing has fallen by about 5%.
A house of 1 million has risen to 3 million in two or three years, and now it has fallen to 2.8 million, as if the sky is about to fall.
Hengyang, Hunan, which has been obscure, took the lead in collapsing.
At the end of December, Hengyang canceled the price limit, at the end of the economic meeting, there was a sentence about housing prices "because of the city's governance", Hengyang, at the end of 2017, the house of Country Garden was 8,000 yuan a flat, on December 22, the price of Country Garden was 5,288 yuan a flat, a drop of nearly 3,000 yuan a flat, which sounded extremely terrifying.
In 2014, the average house price in Hengyang was only 3,880 yuan per square meter.
Before the end of June, Hengyang's Country Garden was still in full swing to take the land, including a piece of land of 678 million on the 25th, a piece of land of 552 million on the 26th, and the executive meeting of the State Council in October required the cancellation of the currency shed reform, in November, 13 cases of land in Hengyang, 12 cases were auctioned, and 1 case was unauctioned, the data sounds very beautiful, but these 12 parcels of land, 11 cases are the urban construction investment of the Hengyang Municipal Government.
Big developers like Country Garden and Evergrande suddenly evaporated from the auction floor.
In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, government revenue can rely on taxes, and in small cities like Hengyang, if there are no developers to buy land, local fiscal revenue will drop sharply, while the salaries of local civil servants and teachers in Hengyang are mainly maintained by selling land.
If you don't sell land at a high price, there will be no financial revenue, and if you want to restrict sales, there will be no developers to buy land.
High-priced land is the lifeblood of third- and fourth-tier cities, and the lifeblood is now pinched in the palm of the hand by the central government.
It's like walking into a besieged city.
Looking at the previous data, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities have now fallen by about 5%, and in 2018, the value of RMB depreciated by 5.43%.
In the past 20 years, Japan has chosen the exchange rate and Russia has chosen housing prices.
After the cancellation of the price limit in Hengyang and the attention of national public opinion, they said that it was only temporary, and the price limit would be restored at any time.
It seems to be very clear whether to protect the exchange rate or the house price.
five
Zhou Jintao also said that asset prices in China and the United States will fall across the board, and 2019 will be the final low, which will be lower than everyone imagined.
The internet world has fallen to the dust.
China's unicorns, with lightning speed, rushed to the market before 2019, and even Xiaomi, whose valuation was less than half of what was expected, gritted their teeth, and those companies that were not listed were waiting for BAT to continue to transfuse, but the BAT bigwigs, looked at the U.S. interest rate hike table, and then looked at the inverted U.S. Treasury yields, kicked open the project that still burns money, they said:
The landlord's family has no surplus food.
If you look back carefully, you will remember how many amazing things happened in China's Internet industry in 2014.
In March of that year, I was admitted as a lecturer at Taobao University in Guangzhou, and although I didn't take any classes because of my ugliness, I clearly remember that Hand Tao began to occupy the main traffic entrance of Taobao from that time.
At the same time, Baidu Maps, Meituan Takeaway, Momo You, Meitu App, etc., which you are now using every day, have begun to frantically seize the market.
Four years later, the mountain is fully occupied, and all the Internet projects that want to get up have to burn the money like a mountain of flames before they can squeeze into a market with difficulty.
No one will notice that the big wave of dividends of the Internet is due to the existence of a basic platform, which has held up the magical mobile Internet entrepreneurship story in recent years.
In 2014, China began to fully promote 4G.
Now the twilight of the Internet, from another point of view, is the twilight of 4G.
In 2019, when the difficult 4G dividends were exhausted, the 5G era is coming, and in the new era, a large number of entrepreneurial projects are waiting to be harvested. (See my article "What Golden Bonus Period Will 5G Bring to Ordinary People" a few days ago)
And the dawn is just around the corner.
land
I don't like to call the days after 2019 an economic crisis.
I think the word recession is more appropriate.
This period will be relatively long, about 5-10 years, we are not too adapted, in the 40 years of reform and opening up, Chinese have never experienced a long-term economic recession, China's economic growth rate, it is possible to drop from the crazy 10% in the past to 5%, but we will adapt sooner or later.
Chinese who live to the age of 40 have three chances in their lives, once in 1999, once in 2008, and the next time in 2019. At any given opportunity, you can at least become middle class.
Behind the beginning of the recession is the lowest value of the next wave of Chinese and American assets, and at this stage, what ordinary people can do is to keep cash and live carefully.
After all, whether it is the acquisition of assets or the 5G start-up, the dividend is not far away.
Tang
2018 is coming to an end, and I don't miss it at all.
It's true.
(Originally written on December 29, 2018)
★★★ The two old articles mentioned in the article, "Erdogan's Game" and "What Golden Bonus Period Will 5G Bring to Ordinary People?", many new readers should not have read it.
Readers who want to read these two articles can chat privately in the background [Cards] to get!! ★★★